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October 24, 2020, 01:08:12 AM
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  IA (Data for Progress): Trump +1
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Author Topic: IA (Data for Progress): Trump +1  (Read 735 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: October 15, 2020, 08:35:27 AM »

Trump 48
Biden 47

Also has Greenfield up 4, 47-43.

https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-4/IA.pdf
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Ljube
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2020, 08:38:37 AM »

If Trump is only up by 1 in Iowa, he has lost the Midwest.
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Buzz
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2020, 08:40:20 AM »

Likely R at this point and probably should be safe.  Trump will win by 5.  I still remember the 2018 Iowa polls trying to act like they was a toss up or lean Dem 😂
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2020, 08:41:21 AM »

Iowa is a tossup
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2020, 08:42:16 AM »

Trump will probably hang on here. Congrats?
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2020, 08:50:49 AM »

The big question is if Ernst can consolidate all of Trump's voters. Greenfield is only leading because she's matching Biden.

I guess if a chunk of Trump voters vote third party for Senate, that helps.
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Georgia Democrat in 2020
mollybecky
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2020, 08:54:27 AM »

This is like April 1945.  Trump is fighting a multi-front war and he's not going to be able to defend completely the areas where he is bleeding support.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2020, 09:10:08 AM »

I doubt Trump wins IA again if Greenfield is leading
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2020, 09:49:19 AM »

October 8-11
822 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%
Changes with September 23-28

Trump 48% (+1)
Biden 47% (+3)
Jorgensen 2% (+1)
Hawkins 0% (but some voters) (-1)
Undecided 3% (-3)
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2020, 09:53:02 AM »

If D's win IA, they clinch 272 without VA and the Senate without NC, that how damaged Trump is and Hillary didn't play well in a 4 percent unemployment economy in 2016
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2020, 10:00:47 AM »

Lean R -> Lean R
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woodley park
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« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2020, 10:17:42 AM »

Likely R at this point and probably should be safe.  Trump will win by 5.  I still remember the 2018 Iowa polls trying to act like they was a toss up or lean Dem 😂

Didn't the Democrats win three out of the four House seats available?

I think Trump and Enrst will both lose but I expect Ernst to be more vulnerable than Trump, especially post-Barrett.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2020, 11:57:13 AM »

Likely R at this point and probably should be safe.  Trump will win by 5.  I still remember the 2018 Iowa polls trying to act like they was a toss up or lean Dem 😂

Winning by 2.8 points in a state as elastic as Iowa actually shows that the race was a tossup
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Illini Moderate
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« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2020, 12:05:35 PM »

If D's win IA, they clinch 272 without VA and the Senate without NC, that how damaged Trump is and Hillary didn't play well in a 4 percent unemployment economy in 2016

Without Virginia?? What?
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Arlington County Moderate 4 Trump (Against Bernie)
IndyRep
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« Reply #14 on: October 15, 2020, 12:29:17 PM »

Likely R at this point and probably should be safe.  Trump will win by 5.  I still remember the 2018 Iowa polls trying to act like they was a toss up or lean Dem 😂

Winning by 2.8 points in a state as elastic as Iowa actually shows that the race was a tossup

If itís so incredibly elastic, why didnít they lose the race?
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Old School Republican
Computer89
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« Reply #15 on: October 15, 2020, 12:31:02 PM »

Likely R at this point and probably should be safe.  Trump will win by 5.  I still remember the 2018 Iowa polls trying to act like they was a toss up or lean Dem 😂

Winning by 2.8 points in a state as elastic as Iowa actually shows that the race was a tossup

If itís so incredibly elastic, why didnít they lose the race?

Because they ran a strong candidate
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Dread it, Run from it, President Biden arrives all the same
Western Democrat
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« Reply #16 on: October 15, 2020, 12:31:30 PM »

Likely R at this point and probably should be safe.  Trump will win by 5.  I still remember the 2018 Iowa polls trying to act like they was a toss up or lean Dem 😂

Winning by 2.8 points in a state as elastic as Iowa actually shows that the race was a tossup

If itís so incredibly elastic, why didnít they lose the race?

Because they ran a strong candidate

Meme response
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Old School Republican
Computer89
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« Reply #17 on: October 15, 2020, 12:35:28 PM »

Likely R at this point and probably should be safe.  Trump will win by 5.  I still remember the 2018 Iowa polls trying to act like they was a toss up or lean Dem 😂

Winning by 2.8 points in a state as elastic as Iowa actually shows that the race was a tossup

If itís so incredibly elastic, why didnít they lose the race?

Because they ran a strong candidate

Meme response

If that race was an open seat, Hubbell might have pulled it out but the fact is Republican incumbent governors in 2018 didn't do that bad(just look at Texas and Arizona and Walker almost winning a 3rd term in a Dem Wave Year)
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Dread it, Run from it, President Biden arrives all the same
Western Democrat
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« Reply #18 on: October 15, 2020, 12:46:08 PM »

Likely R at this point and probably should be safe.  Trump will win by 5.  I still remember the 2018 Iowa polls trying to act like they was a toss up or lean Dem 😂

Winning by 2.8 points in a state as elastic as Iowa actually shows that the race was a tossup

If itís so incredibly elastic, why didnít they lose the race?

Because they ran a strong candidate

Meme response

If that race was an open seat, Hubbell might have pulled it out but the fact is Republican incumbent governors in 2018 didn't do that bad(just look at Texas and Arizona and Walker almost winning a 3rd term in a Dem Wave Year)

OH was a open seat, just as Republican as IA in 2016, and Democrats still lost.
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DINGO Joe
dingojoe
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« Reply #19 on: October 15, 2020, 12:48:15 PM »

If D's win IA, they clinch 272 without VA and the Senate without NC, that how damaged Trump is and Hillary didn't play well in a 4 percent unemployment economy in 2016

Without Virginia?? What?

OC is capable of running millions of simulations in his head, simultaneously.
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Old School Republican
Computer89
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« Reply #20 on: October 15, 2020, 12:48:49 PM »

Likely R at this point and probably should be safe.  Trump will win by 5.  I still remember the 2018 Iowa polls trying to act like they was a toss up or lean Dem 😂

Winning by 2.8 points in a state as elastic as Iowa actually shows that the race was a tossup

If itís so incredibly elastic, why didnít they lose the race?

Because they ran a strong candidate

Meme response

If that race was an open seat, Hubbell might have pulled it out but the fact is Republican incumbent governors in 2018 didn't do that bad(just look at Texas and Arizona and Walker almost winning a 3rd term in a Dem Wave Year)

OH was a open seat, just as Republican as IA in 2016, and Democrats still lost.

OH is more Republican downballot than Iowa though
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ExSky
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« Reply #21 on: October 15, 2020, 12:58:56 PM »

If Trump is only up by 1 in Iowa, he has lost the Midwest.


Joe has unique Appeal for Iowa which isnít entirely Midwest. Itís a hybrid between Rust belt and MW
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mijan
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« Reply #22 on: October 15, 2020, 01:46:34 PM »

Dems have taken 114 k early voting lead over GOP in Iowa. GOP in big big trouble if they don't get huge election day turnout, even then it may not be enough. As Dems can get around 180 k lead at the end of early voting.
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President Pericles
Pericles
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« Reply #23 on: October 15, 2020, 01:55:14 PM »

Awesome numbers for Greenfield in this poll.
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Lemme tell you how Bernie can still win in 2016 & 2020
swamiG
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« Reply #24 on: October 15, 2020, 01:57:58 PM »

Likely R at this point and probably should be safe.  Trump will win by 5.  I still remember the 2018 Iowa polls trying to act like they was a toss up or lean Dem 😂

Exactly. However I wouldn't go quite as far as Likely R. Tilt/Lean R for me honestly
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