IA (Data for Progress): Trump +1
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  IA (Data for Progress): Trump +1
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Author Topic: IA (Data for Progress): Trump +1  (Read 1962 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: October 15, 2020, 08:35:27 AM »

Trump 48
Biden 47

Also has Greenfield up 4, 47-43.

https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-4/IA.pdf
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Ljube
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2020, 08:38:37 AM »

If Trump is only up by 1 in Iowa, he has lost the Midwest.
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Buzz
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2020, 08:40:20 AM »

Likely R at this point and probably should be safe.  Trump will win by 5.  I still remember the 2018 Iowa polls trying to act like they was a toss up or lean Dem 😂
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2020, 08:41:21 AM »

Iowa is a tossup
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2020, 08:42:16 AM »

Trump will probably hang on here. Congrats?
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2020, 08:50:49 AM »

The big question is if Ernst can consolidate all of Trump's voters. Greenfield is only leading because she's matching Biden.

I guess if a chunk of Trump voters vote third party for Senate, that helps.
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Podgy the Bear
mollybecky
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2020, 08:54:27 AM »

This is like April 1945.  Trump is fighting a multi-front war and he's not going to be able to defend completely the areas where he is bleeding support.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2020, 09:10:08 AM »

I doubt Trump wins IA again if Greenfield is leading
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2020, 09:49:19 AM »

October 8-11
822 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%
Changes with September 23-28

Trump 48% (+1)
Biden 47% (+3)
Jorgensen 2% (+1)
Hawkins 0% (but some voters) (-1)
Undecided 3% (-3)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2020, 09:53:02 AM »

If D's win IA, they clinch 272 without VA and the Senate without NC, that how damaged Trump is and Hillary didn't play well in a 4 percent unemployment economy in 2016
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2020, 10:00:47 AM »

Lean R -> Lean R
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woodley park
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« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2020, 10:17:42 AM »

Likely R at this point and probably should be safe.  Trump will win by 5.  I still remember the 2018 Iowa polls trying to act like they was a toss up or lean Dem 😂

Didn't the Democrats win three out of the four House seats available?

I think Trump and Enrst will both lose but I expect Ernst to be more vulnerable than Trump, especially post-Barrett.
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2020, 11:57:13 AM »

Likely R at this point and probably should be safe.  Trump will win by 5.  I still remember the 2018 Iowa polls trying to act like they was a toss up or lean Dem 😂

Winning by 2.8 points in a state as elastic as Iowa actually shows that the race was a tossup
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Illini Moderate
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« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2020, 12:05:35 PM »

If D's win IA, they clinch 272 without VA and the Senate without NC, that how damaged Trump is and Hillary didn't play well in a 4 percent unemployment economy in 2016

Without Virginia?? What?
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #14 on: October 15, 2020, 12:29:17 PM »

Likely R at this point and probably should be safe.  Trump will win by 5.  I still remember the 2018 Iowa polls trying to act like they was a toss up or lean Dem 😂

Winning by 2.8 points in a state as elastic as Iowa actually shows that the race was a tossup

If it’s so incredibly elastic, why didn’t they lose the race?
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #15 on: October 15, 2020, 12:31:02 PM »

Likely R at this point and probably should be safe.  Trump will win by 5.  I still remember the 2018 Iowa polls trying to act like they was a toss up or lean Dem 😂

Winning by 2.8 points in a state as elastic as Iowa actually shows that the race was a tossup

If it’s so incredibly elastic, why didn’t they lose the race?

Because they ran a strong candidate
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WD
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« Reply #16 on: October 15, 2020, 12:31:30 PM »

Likely R at this point and probably should be safe.  Trump will win by 5.  I still remember the 2018 Iowa polls trying to act like they was a toss up or lean Dem 😂

Winning by 2.8 points in a state as elastic as Iowa actually shows that the race was a tossup

If it’s so incredibly elastic, why didn’t they lose the race?

Because they ran a strong candidate

Meme response
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #17 on: October 15, 2020, 12:35:28 PM »

Likely R at this point and probably should be safe.  Trump will win by 5.  I still remember the 2018 Iowa polls trying to act like they was a toss up or lean Dem 😂

Winning by 2.8 points in a state as elastic as Iowa actually shows that the race was a tossup

If it’s so incredibly elastic, why didn’t they lose the race?

Because they ran a strong candidate

Meme response

If that race was an open seat, Hubbell might have pulled it out but the fact is Republican incumbent governors in 2018 didn't do that bad(just look at Texas and Arizona and Walker almost winning a 3rd term in a Dem Wave Year)
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WD
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« Reply #18 on: October 15, 2020, 12:46:08 PM »

Likely R at this point and probably should be safe.  Trump will win by 5.  I still remember the 2018 Iowa polls trying to act like they was a toss up or lean Dem 😂

Winning by 2.8 points in a state as elastic as Iowa actually shows that the race was a tossup

If it’s so incredibly elastic, why didn’t they lose the race?

Because they ran a strong candidate

Meme response

If that race was an open seat, Hubbell might have pulled it out but the fact is Republican incumbent governors in 2018 didn't do that bad(just look at Texas and Arizona and Walker almost winning a 3rd term in a Dem Wave Year)

OH was a open seat, just as Republican as IA in 2016, and Democrats still lost.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #19 on: October 15, 2020, 12:48:15 PM »

If D's win IA, they clinch 272 without VA and the Senate without NC, that how damaged Trump is and Hillary didn't play well in a 4 percent unemployment economy in 2016

Without Virginia?? What?

OC is capable of running millions of simulations in his head, simultaneously.
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #20 on: October 15, 2020, 12:48:49 PM »

Likely R at this point and probably should be safe.  Trump will win by 5.  I still remember the 2018 Iowa polls trying to act like they was a toss up or lean Dem 😂

Winning by 2.8 points in a state as elastic as Iowa actually shows that the race was a tossup

If it’s so incredibly elastic, why didn’t they lose the race?

Because they ran a strong candidate

Meme response

If that race was an open seat, Hubbell might have pulled it out but the fact is Republican incumbent governors in 2018 didn't do that bad(just look at Texas and Arizona and Walker almost winning a 3rd term in a Dem Wave Year)

OH was a open seat, just as Republican as IA in 2016, and Democrats still lost.

OH is more Republican downballot than Iowa though
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ExSky
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« Reply #21 on: October 15, 2020, 12:58:56 PM »

If Trump is only up by 1 in Iowa, he has lost the Midwest.


Joe has unique Appeal for Iowa which isn’t entirely Midwest. It’s a hybrid between Rust belt and MW
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mijan
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« Reply #22 on: October 15, 2020, 01:46:34 PM »

Dems have taken 114 k early voting lead over GOP in Iowa. GOP in big big trouble if they don't get huge election day turnout, even then it may not be enough. As Dems can get around 180 k lead at the end of early voting.
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Pericles
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« Reply #23 on: October 15, 2020, 01:55:14 PM »

Awesome numbers for Greenfield in this poll.
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One Term Floridian
swamiG
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« Reply #24 on: October 15, 2020, 01:57:58 PM »

Likely R at this point and probably should be safe.  Trump will win by 5.  I still remember the 2018 Iowa polls trying to act like they was a toss up or lean Dem 😂

Exactly. However I wouldn't go quite as far as Likely R. Tilt/Lean R for me honestly
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