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October 19, 2020, 10:09:28 AM
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  VA - Roanoke College: Biden+15
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Author Topic: VA - Roanoke College: Biden+15  (Read 835 times)
n1240
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« on: October 15, 2020, 08:07:02 AM »

https://www.roanoke.edu/documents/rcpoll/RR%20RC%20VA%20election%20poll%20Oct%202020%20topline.pdf

Biden 53
Trump 38
Jorgensen 4

9/30-10/12, 602 LV
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VARepublican
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2020, 08:09:33 AM »

54-39 with leaners.

Favorabilities:
Trump: 41/56 (-15)
Biden: 52/44 (+8)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2020, 08:10:34 AM »

Jorgensen getting a bit of a high # in some of these polls but I imagine it dissolves quickly come election day
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2020, 08:10:47 AM »

Two solid VA polls today, both pointing towards a Biden +10 national environment.
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VARepublican
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2020, 08:14:48 AM »

Two solid VA polls today, both pointing towards a Biden +10 national environment.

lol no

My state is trending D at a rapid rate.
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VARepublican
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2020, 08:24:58 AM »

SW VA (n=66): Trump 52-38 (+14)
Southside (n=48): Biden 60-32 (+28)
Shenandoah Valley (n=42): Biden 50-40 (+10)
Central/Richmond (n=114): Biden 58-36 (+22)
NoVa (n=175): Biden 56-34 (+22)
Tidewater (n=138): Biden 52-39 (+13)
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2020, 08:25:35 AM »
« Edited: October 15, 2020, 09:05:29 AM by psychprofessor »

Virginia at +15 would roughly be in line with voting like NJ or CT. Welcome to the northeast, VA.
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You Reap What You Sow
Rafe
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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2020, 08:28:29 AM »

Better get called at poll closing.
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Buzz
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2020, 08:45:17 AM »

Roanoke showed Trumps worst VA results over and over again in October 2016.  They were Clinton +13, +9.  Off by a lot.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2020, 08:45:57 AM »

Safe D, nothing to see here. Mr. Trump will be get wiped out in NOVA.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2020, 08:48:46 AM »

The question is not so much how valid the samples are. The question is who votes.

We are not accustomed to blow-out landslides, and we are on the brink of one. (Clinton 1992 and 1996, and Obama 2008 are 'modest landslides').  
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2020, 09:41:12 AM »

Including Reconnect Research
Not going to include changes as the last poll didn't have Reconnect Research involved
Quote
Nonprobability samples do not allow the use of a traditional margin of sampling error. If this was a probability sample, which it is not, the estimate of sampling error would be approximately 5.4%, including the design effect. However, there is no margin of error associated with this survey.

With leaners:
Jorgensen 4%
Unsure 4%
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Beida
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« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2020, 09:45:05 AM »

Reminder that VA was considered "lean D" by most in 2016. There has been a noticeable shift of several states from competitive in 2016 to completely non-competitive in 2020 (VA+NH+ME+CO). You've also seen other states that were not extremely competitive in 2016 (TX+GA+AZ, kind of) become very competitive this cycle.

Trump has completely lost his footing in the electoral map. There have been no shifts in his direction. He really needs an electoral miracle upset to have a shot in must-win states like PA/MI.
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kph14
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« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2020, 09:56:52 AM »


It won't. They will call it late when at around 11 PM EST most absentee and early votes are in.

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jimmie
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« Reply #14 on: October 15, 2020, 03:12:33 PM »

And many Virginia Republicans still think it is only tilt Biden because Tim Kaine not on the ticket.
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Hammy
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« Reply #15 on: October 15, 2020, 03:19:06 PM »

Roanoke showed Trumps worst VA results over and over again in October 2016.  They were Clinton +13, +9.  Off by a lot.

Their numbers were pretty bad (45-38, which was never going to happen) but the takeaway is that they still under-polled both candidates. Trump is still being under-polled by quite a bit but if you go by the 2016 error, Virginia's still D+8 or more.
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Arlington County Moderate 4 Trump (Against Bernie)
IndyRep
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« Reply #16 on: October 15, 2020, 04:30:33 PM »

Definitely would have been competitive with "Bernie"
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Ljube
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« Reply #17 on: October 15, 2020, 04:33:13 PM »

Definitely would have been competitive with "Bernie"

Not only Virginia, but Delaware too.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #18 on: October 15, 2020, 04:35:10 PM »

Definitely would have been competitive with "Bernie"

You really think Bernie wouldn't pick Pete Buttigieg as more of a pragmatist wouldn't be selected to blunt Trump's appeal to VA or Amy Klobuchar
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VARepublican
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« Reply #19 on: October 15, 2020, 04:36:37 PM »

Definitely would have been competitive with "Bernie"

You really think Bernie wouldn't pick Pete Buttigieg as more of a pragmatist wouldn't be selected to blunt Trump's appeal to VA or Amy Klobuchar

LMFAO
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #20 on: October 15, 2020, 04:38:02 PM »

Anyways Bernie would have picked a Veep that had moderate appeal
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #21 on: October 15, 2020, 04:52:07 PM »

Two solid VA polls today, both pointing towards a Biden +10 national environment.

lol no

My state is trending D at a rapid rate.

That would still be a D+2 trend if VA voted Biden by 15 and nationally by 10
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #22 on: October 15, 2020, 04:53:43 PM »

Safe D. As some others have pointed out, it's part of the block of Solid D North Eastern states now.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
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« Reply #23 on: October 15, 2020, 04:59:23 PM »


It won't. They will call it late when at around 11 PM EST most absentee and early votes are in.



That is when they have to have it in by, not when they will necessarily report them.
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jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #24 on: October 15, 2020, 05:15:59 PM »

Definitely would have been competitive with "Bernie"


Not really. Would have been closer  and Bernie would have struggled in Hampton Roads.

But interestingly, Loudoun, Fairfax and PwC would have all been like the same margin for Bernie. The ultra wealthy in fairfax would have bailed.
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