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October 26, 2020, 07:43:43 PM
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  Civiqs/Daily Kos: Biden +12 in CO, +5 in NC, +13 in VA
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Author Topic: Civiqs/Daily Kos: Biden +12 in CO, +5 in NC, +13 in VA  (Read 509 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: October 15, 2020, 07:44:38 AM »

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/10/15/1986566/-New-Daily-Kos-Civiqs-polls-Democrats-poised-to-flip-U-S-Senate-seats-in-Colorado-North-Carolina

CO: B 54-42
NC: B 51-46
VA: B 55-42
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2020, 07:45:55 AM »

Boy... NC looking more and more consistent.
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Horus
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2020, 07:46:21 AM »

Civiqs seems a tad Dem friendly this cycle but this poll is yet more proof that Trump is at best tied in NC.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2020, 07:47:01 AM »
« Edited: October 15, 2020, 07:52:49 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

October 11-14

CO
https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_CO_banner_book_2020_10_mk0d15.pdf

1013 likely voters
MoE: 3.6%

Biden 54%
Trump 42%
Someone else 3%
Unsure 1%

NC
https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_NC_banner_book_2020_10_g32na7.pdf

1211 likely voters
MoE: 3.3%

Biden 51%
Trump 46%
Someone else 2%
Unsure 1%

VA
https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_VA_banner_book_2020_10_48z9k2.pdf

1231 likely voters
MoE: 3.1%

Biden 55%
Trump 42%
Someone else 3%
Unsure 1%
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EJ24
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2020, 07:51:09 AM »

OOOOHHHHHHHH YEEEEEEEAAAAAAHHHHH!!!!!!
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The scissors of false economy
Nathan
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2020, 07:56:29 AM »

ROCKY MOUNTAIN JOE
TAR HEEL JOE
TIDEWATER JOE
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2020, 08:10:56 AM »

Civiqs seems a tad Dem friendly this cycle but this poll is yet more proof that Trump is at best tied in NC.

Of note: they were the only ones to get TX correct in 2018. They also nailed the OH margin as well.
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Torrain
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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2020, 08:33:38 AM »

Civiqs The electorate seems a tad Dem friendly this cycle
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Georgia Democrat in 2020
mollybecky
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2020, 08:34:50 AM »

Looks like the Senate seats in CO and NC will go D as well.  There will be very little ticket splitting this year.  
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2020, 08:51:58 AM »

My expression of Trump's chances to win re-election based on those polls:



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Calthrina950
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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2020, 09:13:28 AM »

Looks like the Senate seats in CO and NC will go D as well.  There will be very little ticket splitting this year.  

Gardner has been DOA for over two years, and he was never going to run far ahead of Trump. The 2018 midterms showed that ticket splitting is virtually dead in Colorado. And Cunningham is still the favorite in North Carolina. Voters don't care about his sexual escapades and are more concerned about handing an electoral rebuke to Republicans. But you're right about the ticket splitting effect. I don't think it will be as extreme as in 2016, when no state split tickets for Senator and President for the first time in almost a hundred years. Bullock, Greenfield, Bollier, Gross, Harrison, and either Ossoff or Warnock are Democratic Senatorial candidates who can win with Trump carrying their states. The same probably could have been said of Susan Collins in Maine until fairly recently (that she could win with Biden carrying her state), but at this point, I believe that she is going to lose.
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Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
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« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2020, 09:21:03 AM »

It's really amazing how these states, especially VA and CO, have shifted since the days of W. I have no doubt both will end up in double digits while NC seems to be tilting towards Biden in most recent days. Hopefully we can get this going. Due to the fact NC is already voting, it's certainly good news since Biden seems to be ahead as of today.

Looks like the Senate seats in CO and NC will go D as well.  There will be very little ticket splitting this year.  

Gardner has been DOA for over two years, and he was never going to run far ahead of Trump. The 2018 midterms showed that ticket splitting is virtually dead in Colorado. And Cunningham is still the favorite in North Carolina. Voters don't care about his sexual escapades and are more concerned about handing an electoral rebuke to Republicans. But you're right about the ticket splitting effect. I don't think it will be as extreme as in 2016, when no state split tickets for Senator and President for the first time in almost a hundred years. Bullock, Greenfield, Bollier, Gross, Harrison, and either Ossoff or Warnock are Democratic Senatorial candidates who can win with Trump carrying their states. The same probably could have been said of Susan Collins in Maine until fairly recently (that she could win with Biden carrying her state), but at this point, I believe that she is going to lose.

I agree. This is why Dems didn't have to turn to flawed and bland candidate Hickenlooper. At the outset, it seemed he was the safe choice, but he pushed out some other candidates who would have beaten Gardner.
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Peter Henderson/Kamelamela Harris 2020
Patrick97
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« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2020, 09:44:59 AM »

Blue avatars looking at this poll like

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