Civiqs/Daily Kos: Hickenlooper +11 (CO), Cunningham +6 (NC), Warner +11 (VA)
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  Civiqs/Daily Kos: Hickenlooper +11 (CO), Cunningham +6 (NC), Warner +11 (VA)
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Author Topic: Civiqs/Daily Kos: Hickenlooper +11 (CO), Cunningham +6 (NC), Warner +11 (VA)  (Read 1420 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: October 15, 2020, 07:42:57 AM »

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/10/15/1986566/-New-Daily-Kos-Civiqs-polls-Democrats-poised-to-flip-U-S-Senate-seats-in-Colorado-North-Carolina
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2020, 07:45:24 AM »

October 11-14

CO
https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_CO_banner_book_2020_10_mk0d15.pdf

1013 likely voters
MoE: 3.6%

Hickenlooper 53%
Gardner 42%
Doane (L) 2%
Doyle (Approval Voting) 0%
Evans (Unity) 0%
Someone else 0%
Unsure 1%

NC
https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_NC_banner_book_2020_10_g32na7.pdf

1211 likely voters
MoE: 3.3%

Cunningham 51%
Tillis 45%
Bray (L) 2%
Hayes (C) 1%
Someone else 0%
Unsure 2%

VA
https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_VA_banner_book_2020_10_48z9k2.pdf

1231 likely voters
MoE: 3.1%

Warner 54%
Gade 43%
Someone else 0%
Unsure 2%
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tjstarling
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2020, 07:47:16 AM »

That Warner number is a bit underwhelming
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Person Man
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2020, 07:50:19 AM »

Hick is going as well as Warner...
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2020, 08:21:29 AM »

Cunningham +6 still...
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2020, 09:11:39 AM »

I swear if Warner costs is the senate...
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2020, 09:14:41 AM »

Warner won't lose, you don't need to swear on anyone
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2020, 09:33:35 AM »

Well, the NRSC still seems to be going all in on the CO race (judging from their Twitter account, they’re quite obsessed with this state). I still can’t fathom how one of the most important organizations in this country can be this incompetent, but I can’t fathom many things these days.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2020, 09:33:53 AM »


what in the world
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2020, 09:42:23 AM »

Warner won't lose, you don't need to swear on anyone

Don’t worry I’m generally not a potty mouth.

There’s some people who are going to go off on a tangent now about how this race is highly competitive because Warner only leads by 11%
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2020, 10:23:50 AM »

Well, the NRSC still seems to be going all in on the CO race (judging from their Twitter account, they’re quite obsessed with this state). I still can’t fathom how one of the most important organizations in this country can be this incompetent, but I can’t fathom many things these days.

They can't just abandon an incumbent who even in the face of defeat continues to support loyally the party line.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2020, 10:35:10 AM »

Well, the NRSC still seems to be going all in on the CO race (judging from their Twitter account, they’re quite obsessed with this state). I still can’t fathom how one of the most important organizations in this country can be this incompetent, but I can’t fathom many things these days.

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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2020, 10:40:23 AM »

Well, the NRSC still seems to be going all in on the CO race (judging from their Twitter account, they’re quite obsessed with this state). I still can’t fathom how one of the most important organizations in this country can be this incompetent, but I can’t fathom many things these days.

They can't just abandon an incumbent who even in the face of defeat continues to support loyally the party line.

Yeah, it’s just insane from a strategic perspective if your self-declared utmost priority is holding and/or expanding the Republican Senate majority. They could still salvage MT/IA/KS/SC/TX/AL and maybe one or two of ME/MI/NC, but they’re just wasting valuable resources in CO and AZ at this point. Unless their private polling is radically different from the public polls showing Gardner getting crushed even after the barrage of attacks on Hickenlooper and Gardner's "excellent campaign", it’s just completely unjustifiable malpractice.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2020, 11:06:18 AM »

Well, the NRSC still seems to be going all in on the CO race (judging from their Twitter account, they’re quite obsessed with this state). I still can’t fathom how one of the most important organizations in this country can be this incompetent, but I can’t fathom many things these days.

They can't just abandon an incumbent who even in the face of defeat continues to support loyally the party line.

Yeah, it’s just insane from a strategic perspective if your self-declared utmost priority is holding and/or expanding the Republican Senate majority. They could still salvage MT/IA/KS/SC/TX/AL and maybe one or two of ME/MI/NC, but they’re just wasting valuable resources in CO and AZ at this point. Unless their private polling is radically different from the public polls showing Gardner getting crushed even after the barrage of attacks on Hickenlooper and Gardner's "excellent campaign", it’s just completely unjustifiable malpractice.

Sure, it doesn't make sense strategically but abandoning Gardner would send a bad signal to the caucus, especially to the senators from swing states, that they are expendable.
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #14 on: October 15, 2020, 11:12:29 AM »

Gardner was the prior NRSC chair when they gained seats. That's the ONLY reason.
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Xing
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« Reply #15 on: October 15, 2020, 11:29:38 AM »

The NRSC when Gardner loses badly:

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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #16 on: October 15, 2020, 01:50:15 PM »

Gardner was the prior NRSC chair when they gained seats. That's the ONLY reason.

And a lousy one at that (half-hearted/no involvement in MT/WV/OH where Republicans were badly outspent/defined early, prioritizing AZ and especially NV over more winnable races, not pushing for Jenkins in WV, etc.). The headline shouldn’t have said "Republicans score big wins in Senate", it should have been "Republicans fail to lock Democrats out of Senate majority until 2022."

Their only impressive win was FL, and that had nothing to do with Gardner and everything with Scott's $$$/strengths as a candidate.
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forsythvoter
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« Reply #17 on: October 15, 2020, 03:15:07 PM »

My reactions:

CO: Why is the NRSC still spending money here? They need to play defense in seats like IA, NC, ME, GA, MT, KS, AK. I would concede CO, AZ (although maybe not if they still think the Pres race is in play there), and focus on the others

NC: Seems like Cunningham will run 2-3 points above Biden's performance. NC seems like the type of state where there's a contingent of anti-establishment voters who aren't going to care about personal scandals (if anything, it might make them more likely to vote for Cunningham / Trump just to stick a finger to the establishment).

VA: Warner will win by 10-15 points (onpar with Biden's performance in the state). The state's polarization means that the final vote is likely to be pretty close to the Pres results. Gade would have better luck running in a Biden midterm.

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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #18 on: October 15, 2020, 06:54:51 PM »

51% for Cunningham? Sexy!
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #19 on: October 15, 2020, 06:58:15 PM »

Gardner was the prior NRSC chair when they gained seats. That's the ONLY reason.

And a lousy one at that (half-hearted/no involvement in MT/WV/OH where Republicans were badly outspent/defined early, prioritizing AZ and especially NV over more winnable races, not pushing for Jenkins in WV, etc.). The headline shouldn’t have said "Republicans score big wins in Senate", it should have been "Republicans fail to lock Democrats out of Senate majority until 2022."

Their only impressive win was FL, and that had nothing to do with Gardner and everything with Scott's $$$/strengths as a candidate.

And Nelson's incompetence
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #20 on: October 20, 2020, 11:52:24 PM »

New Poll: Colorado Senator by Civiqs on 2020-10-14

Summary: D: 53%, R: 42%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #21 on: October 20, 2020, 11:53:37 PM »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Civiqs on 2020-10-14

Summary: D: 51%, R: 45%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #22 on: October 20, 2020, 11:54:43 PM »

New Poll: Virginia Senator by Civiqs on 2020-10-14

Summary: D: 54%, R: 43%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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