WI (RP/Trafalgar): Biden +2

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/restorationpac/status/1316776469197197313?s=21

[It’s so Joever]

So...Biden +5.
Seems about accurate.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Ouch, sorry Republicans.

[hyouzel the predictor]

Trafalgar Math....

538 WI Average: Biden +7.8 (
RCP WI Average: Biden +6.3 (6)

Average of the two: Biden +7

Minus 5 for "Silent Majority/Shy Trumpers"

End result: Biden +2


Try this on every single Trafalgar poll, the math works out.

[Asta]

I'm dying to see how Trafalgar does this year with their "shy Trump" methodology.

They did well in 2016 but they also showed Kemp +12 in Georgia, which was laughably bad.

[wbrocks67]

How is it tightening? Haven't they had Wisconsin at near a Trump win this entire time?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Likely Biden if this is the best Trafalgar can show for Trump.

[Gass3268]

This is literally the average minus 5-6 points.

[Gass3268]

How is it tightening? Haven't they had Wisconsin at near a Trump win this entire time?

Their last poll was Biden +3, so TIGHTENING!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How is it tightening? Haven't they had Wisconsin at near a Trump win this entire time?

ACB nomination is rallying Rs

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 11-13
1043 likely voters
MoE: 2.95%
Changes with September 25-28 poll, also for the restoration PAC
 
Biden 47% (n/c)
Trump 45% (+1)
Jorgensen 3% (n/c)
Someone else 2% (n/c from "Another party candidate" at 2%)
Undecided 3% (-1)

[Alben Barkley]

I'm dying to see how Trafalgar does this year with their "shy Trump" methodology.

They did well in 2016 but they also showed Kemp +12 in Georgia, which was laughably bad.

They "did well" in 2016 not because shy Trump was a thing, but because Trump's gains with undecideds towards the end happened to result in numbers not too far off from theirs.

I suppose you could argue many of those undecideds were "shy Trump" voters intending to vote for him all along, but that's a stretch and I doubt Trafalgar knew that. I have little doubt that they merely shaved some points off whatever margin Hillary was winning by, and again that happened to end up close to the final result for largely unrelated reasons.

[BaldEagle1991]

I'm dying to see how Trafalgar does this year with their "shy Trump" methodology.

They did well in 2016 but they also showed Kemp +12 in Georgia, which was laughably bad.

Well that Kemp +12 was bad but it did show some slight support for him that helped him win.

[Hammy]

I'm dying to see how Trafalgar does this year with their "shy Trump" methodology.

They did well in 2016 but they also showed Kemp +12 in Georgia, which was laughably bad.

They did well in both 2016/18 in the Rust Belt+Florida, at least in terms of being closest and calling the correct winner, and did poorly in 2018 (I don't recall if they polled in 2016) in the Sun Belt.

They do seem to have at least a bit of scattered regional strength.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

R polls don't account for the build up of Early voting votes Biden is getting other polls show Biden is averaging 5 in AZ, PA and WI with R polls showing it closer

[Asta]

I'm dying to see how Trafalgar does this year with their "shy Trump" methodology.

They did well in 2016 but they also showed Kemp +12 in Georgia, which was laughably bad.

They did well in both 2016/18 in the Rust Belt+Florida, at least in terms of being closest and calling the correct winner, and did poorly in 2018 (I don't recall if they polled in 2016) in the Sun Belt.

They do seem to have at least a bit of scattered regional strength.

They do seem to do well in the Midwestern-ish area. They got the margin in MT, ND, MO pretty accurately but there were other pollsters that were pretty accurate as well.

They showed Cruz +9 in TX from what I recall, when it was Cruz +3. That's pretty bad.

[Hammy]

I'm dying to see how Trafalgar does this year with their "shy Trump" methodology.

They did well in 2016 but they also showed Kemp +12 in Georgia, which was laughably bad.

They did well in both 2016/18 in the Rust Belt+Florida, at least in terms of being closest and calling the correct winner, and did poorly in 2018 (I don't recall if they polled in 2016) in the Sun Belt.

They do seem to have at least a bit of scattered regional strength.

They do seem to do well in the Midwestern-ish area. They got the margin in MT, ND, MO pretty accurately but there were other pollsters that were pretty accurate as well.

They showed Cruz +9 in TX from what I recall, when it was Cruz +3. That's pretty bad.

TX/AZ/GA were by far their weakest states (most pollsters seem to under-poll Dems here as well, just not by as much), though they also had too much of a Dem bias in Ohio governors race which was surprising.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Biden +8, nice.