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October 24, 2020, 01:48:36 AM
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  AZ-OHPI: Biden +3/+4
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Author Topic: AZ-OHPI: Biden +3/+4  (Read 580 times)
Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds
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« on: October 15, 2020, 07:01:36 AM »
« edited: October 15, 2020, 07:17:41 AM by High-quality pollster Quinnipiac »

Oct 4-8, 608 LV, MoE: 4%

two-way matchup
Biden 50% (-2)
Trump 47% (+5)
Unsure/undecided 3% (-2)

three-way matchup
Biden 49%
Trump 45%
Jorgensen 4%
Undecided 2%
Refused 0%

Source

SEN: Kelly 50-45 (+5)
GCB: 45-45 (=)

Trump approval: 49/50 (-1)

Favorabilities:
Trump: 48/51 (-3)
Biden: 51/47 (+4)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2020, 07:11:53 AM »

Given that the Kelly #s look low too, may be an R-leaning sample, but looks like most polls are generally converging on a Biden +4-ish lead in AZ, which makes sense.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2020, 07:17:09 AM »

Changes with September 8-10

Two-way matchup
Refused 0% (but some voters)

Three-way matchup
Refused 0% (but some voters)
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2020, 07:29:47 AM »

Given that the Kelly #s look low too, may be an R-leaning sample, but looks like most polls are generally converging on a Biden +4-ish lead in AZ, which makes sense.

Sample breakdown (by party)

Republican (n=241):  40%
Democratic (n=206):  34%
Independent (n=160):  26%

Sample breakdown (by 2016 vote)

Donald J. Trump (n=269):  44%
Hillary R. Clinton (n=263):  43%
Third-Party (n=42):  7.0%
Not eligible/non-voter (n=29):  5.0%
Not sure (n=5):  1.0%

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Brittain33
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2020, 07:54:46 AM »

Good to see Biden leading with a Republican-heavy sample (which may be an accurate picture of the electorate).
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2020, 09:11:36 AM »

Tbh, this is the margin I expect Biden to carry AZ. 3-4 pts, narrowly getting over 50%, while Kelly ends up winning by few points more.

I'm curious to see Maricopa County on election night. My bet would be it votes to the left of the state as whole by about 3 pts.
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tenyasha
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2020, 08:34:32 PM »

why does this poll have such giant swings? seems unrealistic
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2020, 08:57:12 PM »

Biden is gonna win AZ
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2020, 09:21:29 PM »

why does this poll have such giant swings? seems unrealistic

They were similar in 2018. At this time they had McSally up 6 and then 7, before their final poll dropped it down to McSally +1.
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tenyasha
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2020, 09:59:59 PM »

that doesnt make me feel good about their reliability
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