PEW: Biden +10

[Ferguson97]

lol the education gap

White people with a college degree - Biden +21
White people with no college degree - Trump +26

Those shifts alone should terrify the GOP.

The Cook swing-o-meter gives Biden a 413 victory with those numbers.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The fact that Trump is only +1 on the economy is awful for him. This is/was his one strong spot. Hell, it's been the strong spot for any Republican, in any given national election. The fact that this poll has him basically tied with Biden (and there was another poll recently that actually showed Biden ahead on the economy) means it's basically done. He's got nothing left.

Agreed. Though it's always frustrating that no matter how bad a poll gets for Trump there always seems to be at least question where he is perceived favorably like with the "mentally sharp" one here. I guess I'll take that over him being heavily favored on the economy though.

[brucejoel99]

The fact that Trump is only +1 on the economy is awful for him. This is/was his one strong spot. Hell, it's been the strong spot for any Republican, in any given national election. The fact that this poll has him basically tied with Biden (and there was another poll recently that actually showed Biden ahead on the economy) means it's basically done. He's got nothing left.

Agreed. Though it's always frustrating that no matter how bad a poll gets for Trump there always seems to be at least question where he is perceived favorably like with the "mentally sharp" one here. I guess I'll take that over him being heavily favored on the economy though.

I couldn't care less about Trump leading any question except for the only one that matters: the topline.

[TheLaRocca]

So I'm not sure what's going on...

In a +10D environment...Biden should DEF be leading in Georgia. Like every poll has him by 8 or more nationally. Michigan seems to be mad Democrat now ().

But Georgia/Texas don't seem to have swung much.

What's going on? makes no sense. Unless state polling is just off like 2018.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So I'm not sure what's going on...

In a +10D environment...Biden should DEF be leading in Georgia. Like every poll has him by 8 or more nationally. Michigan seems to be mad Democrat now ().

But Georgia/Texas don't seem to have swung much.

What's going on? makes no sense. Unless state polling is just off like 2018.

White male voters continuing to be over-represented in the Electoral College. I'm personally not surprised. I always figured that Biden's popular vote victory and electoral victory would be more off-kilter than in any previous election.

[It’s so Joever]

Pew News is the gold standard for polling.

[TheLaRocca]

So I'm not sure what's going on...

In a +10D environment...Biden should DEF be leading in Georgia. Like every poll has him by 8 or more nationally. Michigan seems to be mad Democrat now ().

But Georgia/Texas don't seem to have swung much.

What's going on? makes no sense. Unless state polling is just off like 2018.

White male voters continuing to be over-represented in the Electoral College. I'm personally not surprised. I always figured that Biden's popular vote victory and electoral victory would be more off-kilter than in any previous election.

Yeah there is obviously an (even bigger IMO) electoral divergence between 2016 and 2020.

[Gass3268]

Once again, a trend of district and national level polls looking better for Biden than State polls is emerging.
Keep in mind in 2016, the national polls were more accurate than the State level ones.

Not surprising considering the better the better pollsters did national polls this weeks post-debate. Obvious exceptions of Siena, Marquette, and DFP.  

[Hammy]

Pew News is the gold standard for polling.

What were there 2016/18 numbers? I like to compare the polls and see if I can figure out the outcome based on past errors.

[It’s so Joever]

Pew News is the gold standard for polling.

What were there 2016/18 numbers? I like to compare the polls and see if I can figure out the outcome based on past errors.

Try checking their website.
https://pew.news/

[Figueira]

So I'm not sure what's going on...

In a +10D environment...Biden should DEF be leading in Georgia. Like every poll has him by 8 or more nationally. Michigan seems to be mad Democrat now ().

But Georgia/Texas don't seem to have swung much.

What's going on? makes no sense. Unless state polling is just off like 2018.

There haven't been many high-quality polls of Georgia lately, and the polls we do have show Biden tied or slightly ahead. Texas is a tough state to poll, but the polls we have show Trump slightly ahead. So if we get to November and Biden ends up winning Texas by a hair and Georgia by a bit more, it will mean the state polls weren't off by that much.

[ExSky]

So I'm not sure what's going on...

In a +10D environment...Biden should DEF be leading in Georgia. Like every poll has him by 8 or more nationally. Michigan seems to be mad Democrat now ().

But Georgia/Texas don't seem to have swung much.

What's going on? makes no sense. Unless state polling is just off like 2018.

Hillary won the NOV by 2 and lost Texas by 9...Texas has shifted appropriately. And that’s not even taking into account the pollsters continued under polling of Texas

[Sbane]

So I'm not sure what's going on...

In a +10D environment...Biden should DEF be leading in Georgia. Like every poll has him by 8 or more nationally. Michigan seems to be mad Democrat now ().

But Georgia/Texas don't seem to have swung much.

What's going on? makes no sense. Unless state polling is just off like 2018.

This election had been fairly stable at +6-8 Biden for a long time now, even after the start of the pandemic. The last few weeks we seem to have gotten close to a double digit lead for Biden. If that movement is indeed real, it makes sense that most of it is happening in the north and not the sun belt. The undecided voters may be moving towards Biden, and not Trump, like many of us assumed.

[afleitch]

Also worth noting that Biden is up 8 amongst those who voted in 2016 and 12 amongst those who voted in 2018. He's up 9 with those who voted in both and up 39(!) with those who only voted in 2018.

A high turnout election seems, if this is to be believed will help Biden.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/PewReligion/status/1316078483295088642?s=19

That's actually a huge surge for Biden amongst white evangelicals. Like near Obama 2008 numbers.

[swf541]

Horrid numbers for Trump, and Pew is really good with their religious surveys in general imo

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Perhaps the college-educated ones, but otherwise, they'll move last and least as a demographic.

10,543 likely voters
MoE: 1.5% for registered voters

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/PewReligion/status/1316078483295088642?s=19

That's actually a huge surge for Biden amongst white evangelicals. Like near Obama 2008 numbers.

Poll is a week old; https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=402742.0

[afleitch]

You know for all the neckbeard fedora new atheist lolllllll infantilisation of atheists and the complete clusterforkery of some of the early 10's water carriers of the 'movement' being in a...different place today...

...that +72 margin though.

[Bojack Horseman]

Every morning I wake up and read the 2020 presidential polling section of this site like a morning newspaper and this is what I like to see.

[Figueira]

What percentage of Black Americans are Protestant?

[tagimaucia]

What percentage of Black Americans are Protestant?

71%, according to Pew in 2018.

[Hope For A New Era]

Every morning I wake up and read the 2020 presidential polling section of this site like a morning newspaper

Oh good, I'm not the only one.