David Binder meme polls: Biden -6 in IA, +11 in MN, +10 in WI
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  David Binder meme polls: Biden -6 in IA, +11 in MN, +10 in WI		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: David Binder meme polls: Biden -6 in IA, +11 in MN, +10 in WI  (Read 792 times)
VAR
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« on: October 14, 2020, 02:19:18 PM »
“220 LV IN EACH STATE”
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2020, 02:23:31 PM »
Dubious poll given the sample sizes, but the results actually seem mostly reasonable.
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VAR
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« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2020, 02:24:17 PM »
Quote from: darthpi on October 14, 2020, 02:23:31 PM
Dubious poll given the sample sizes, but the results actually seem mostly reasonable.

...Iowa is 17 points to the right of MN?
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2020, 02:26:12 PM »
Binders full of Binder's polls.
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Rand
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« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2020, 02:29:06 PM »
I visited Iowa once.

If you ask me to go again, I'll just look at you and say "Binder, done that."
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2020, 02:39:04 PM »
Quote from: High-quality pollster Quinnipiac on October 14, 2020, 02:24:17 PM
Quote from: darthpi on October 14, 2020, 02:23:31 PM
Dubious poll given the sample sizes, but the results actually seem mostly reasonable.

...Iowa is 17 points to the right of MN?

It was 11 points to the right of MN last time. Probably unlikely it would reach a 17 point gap, but I could see something like 13 or 14 happening, depending on the circumstances.
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Pollster
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« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2020, 03:15:49 PM »
If the sample sizes are only 220, then all of these polls are probably well within the margin of error of the truth.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2020, 03:17:06 PM »
There seems to be too big of a gap between IA and the other 2, though IA has been diverging with MN in recent history so who knows.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2020, 05:26:57 PM »
It's worse. 600 total LVs and the "220 in each state" seems to be a typo. 538 has them as 200 likely voters per state.

Changes with July 30-31

IA
Trump 50% (+7)
Biden 44% (-5)

MN
Biden 52% (-2)
Trump 41% (+5)

WI
Biden 53% (n/c)
Trump 43% (+1)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2020, 05:33:58 PM »
The MoE on a sample of 200 is almost 7%.  Junk it.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2020, 05:43:26 PM »
I don't see IA this far off and Greenfield has been tied or leading in every poll
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2020, 06:17:09 PM »
Trump is still favored a bit in Iowa, but not by this much. Meanwhile its neighboring states look pretty reasonable, maybe slightly favorable to Biden.
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LiberalDem19
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« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2020, 07:01:28 PM »
Quote from: High-quality pollster Quinnipiac on October 14, 2020, 02:24:17 PM
Quote from: darthpi on October 14, 2020, 02:23:31 PM
Dubious poll given the sample sizes, but the results actually seem mostly reasonable.

...Iowa is 17 points to the right of MN?

If suburbanites keep trending blue and rural voters keep trending red, this could happen
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #13 on: October 14, 2020, 08:40:47 PM »
Quote from: LiberalDem19 on October 14, 2020, 07:01:28 PM
Quote from: High-quality pollster Quinnipiac on October 14, 2020, 02:24:17 PM
Quote from: darthpi on October 14, 2020, 02:23:31 PM
Dubious poll given the sample sizes, but the results actually seem mostly reasonable.

...Iowa is 17 points to the right of MN?

If suburbanites keep trending blue and rural voters keep trending red, this could happen

Well, even in iowa, the vast amount of voter registration growth is in the metros.
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