Indiana SurveyUSA: Trump +7

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/AndrewPEllison/status/1316453808512405505?s=20

Poll crowdfunded by election twitter lmfao

Bunching northeast and northwest Indiana together as a common region demonstrates the guy doesn't know the state at all.

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/AndrewPEllison/status/1316453808512405505?s=20

Poll crowdfunded by election twitter lmfao

Bunching northeast and northwest Indiana together as a common region demonstrates the guy doesn't know the state at all.

He's from Indiana, and I believe that's a limitation of SurveyUSA itself. I've checked other polls and all of their polls have no more than 3 or 4 regions set

It's like putting together Indiana and Illinois together and calling it a region on a national level because they border one another, completely ignoring the fact that the scale of where you're casting votes from in both places (Chicago vs. Evansville) can wildly swing results. It doesn't tell you anything because it's 527 voters which is a low number and who is from where in what region?

The methodology of the poll is sh**t is what I'm saying. I'm not disputing Trump is leading Indiana by a smaller margin than he won by in 2016, but the methodology of the poll is still sh**t. If it's a SurveyUSA problem, perhaps that means SurveyUSA shouldn't be used for credible polling.

[StateBoiler]

Absolutely devastating poll for Trump.
Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, they are all correlated.

With poll results like this, he is not winning re-election.

HOLY sh**t MOTHER OF GOD CHRIST ALMIGHTY!

I am shocked, SHOCKED~! Who would've known even way back in March that Trump wasn't winning?

In other news, the sky is blue. Andrew Ellison is going to conduct a Twitter crowdfunded SurveyUSA poll on this. His region 1 that stretches from Laos to Uruguay have stated in the affirmative on this 83%.

[StateBoiler]

I don't believe the poll was weighted by region, so I'm not sure why it's relevant.

"Adult respondents were weighted to the most recent US Census targets for Indiana for gender, age, race, education, and home-ownership."

Their regions are just another sub-sample for people to make comparisons with.

You can't make a comparison combining the districts of Pete Visclosky, Jackie Walorski, and Jim Banks together.

Also, 527 people. So for all of a region, we're talking approximately 132 people for that whole area.

[StateBoiler]

2016 vote is Trump 48%, Clinton 31%.  This is about right and it's still a major shirt.

That was not the 2016 vote. That only adds up to 79 and Gary Johnson did not have 21% support then. Is it seriously that difficult for people to look up information on here?*

Trump 1,557,286 57.16%
Clinton 1,033,126 37.92%
Johnson 133,993 4.92%

*The majority of the people of this board have been determined to be less than 28 years old.

[StateBoiler]

SUSA was off in Indiana by 6 points in 2018.  Regardless, a bad poll here for Mr. Trump!

Even if Trump wins Indiana by 13 points, he is utterly f#cked. If Indiana swings from +19 Trump to +13 Trump, he is losing Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and thus is f#cked.

Why are people on here acting like this matters? Biden is winning! We all know this! I've known it since March.

[StateBoiler]

2016 vote is Trump 48%, Clinton 31%.  This is about right and it's still a major shirt.

That was not the 2016 vote. That only adds up to 79 and Gary Johnson did not have 21% support then. Is it seriously that difficult for people to look up information on here?*

Trump 1,557,286 57.16%
Clinton 1,033,126 37.92%
Johnson 133,993 4.92%

*The majority of the people of this board have been determined to be less than 28 years old.

21% is "other" plus people who did not vote in 2016, which does seem about right.

Other in 2016 was 5% counting write-ins. So you're telling me 16% or thereabouts of people in this poll did not vote in 2016 when the number of people voting in the state in 2016 was higher than 2008? I'll grant you people ages 18 to 22 and some people that did not vote. You're not getting up to 16% with that crowd.

I just want the critical application of mathematical skill. A person can give you a more or less correct general result while still being sh**t at their job of the methodology getting to the end point. This pollster in one tweet said if Biden improved 4 points in performance, it meant the Democrat in the Attorney General race could win, the same Democrat this same poll said is losing by 12 points. And this was all done off the back of CROWDFUNDING!, so don't sit here and tell me there's an automatically assumed aspect of quality to this.

[StateBoiler]

StateBoiler ease up pal. It's just a poll. No need to get so worked up.

It's a bullsh**t poll, and people make decisions and assumptions on stuff that's shoddily put together and wrong. It's a guy on Twitter that crowdfunded a poll, which is Red Flag #1, and then when he publishes the poll immediately points out he's partisan and hopeful about other races swinging Democrats' way, Red Flag #2. You have zero legitimacy at that point as far as being a neutral fair arbiter conducting the poll, even worse than saying Rainwater is at 24%. Throw on top of it his regions he assign does not show an in-depth knowledge of the political regions of Indiana at all, he might as well have lumped Indianapolis in with Switzerland County. That ranks at a level lower in respectability than campaign internal polling.

Let's look at this polling in detail, say black voters:

Biden 75, Trump 21
Myers 57, Holcomb 37, Rainwater 3
Weinzapfel 59, Rokita 25

This should be huge effing news if anyone thinks black voters have swung Republican to this degree to where in the race for Attorney General where most random voters can't even name who's running and there's no Trump bias involved, they're going to get 1 out of 4. (And Holcomb even is at 3 of 8.) Did Curtis Hill, a black Republican that won Attorney General then, get 1 out of 4 black voters in 2016? Do people on this thread defending this poll believe black voters have become more Republican the past 4 years? Sure doesn't match the national media narrative does it?

Hey, I'm in favor of polling, but it's like journalism. Anything shoddy should be thrown into a trashcan. This is a trashcan poll.