Big Data Poll Pennsylvania Biden +2.4
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  Big Data Poll Pennsylvania Biden +2.4
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Author Topic: Big Data Poll Pennsylvania Biden +2.4  (Read 778 times)
tenyasha
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« on: October 15, 2020, 12:28:40 AM »
« edited: October 15, 2020, 12:33:26 AM by tenyasha »

I found this on twitter, apparently this poll was banned on 538 for supposedly messing around with data. Dont shoot this messenger but they remind me of Trafalgar or Sesquhanna

Biden 47.4%
Trump 44 %
Jorgensen 2%
Undecied 6.5%
October 9-12 1000 likely voters

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jMGFFCJjbMhP70zNR0ZNRShnZMkBKkMYabMM7EoHvpo/edit?usp=sharing
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2020, 01:06:04 AM »

It takes a lot for 538 to give a polling firm an outright ban so if that's the case then I probably wouldn't trust it.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2020, 01:09:33 AM »

If even an outright fake poll can’t find a lead for Trump...
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Kalimantan
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2020, 04:29:57 AM »

I initially read that as +24!
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Stuart98
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2020, 04:38:01 AM »

  • Banned by FiveThirtyEight? ✔️
  • Probably fake? ✔️
  • Poll results are in a google doc? ✔️
  • Trump is winning 16% of African Americans? ✔️
  • Decimal toplines? ✔️

Junk it.
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Hammy
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2020, 04:45:13 AM »

  • Banned by FiveThirtyEight? ✔️
  • Probably fake? ✔️
  • Poll results are in a google doc? ✔️
  • Trump is winning 16% of African Americans? ✔️
[/b]
  • Decimal toplines? ✔️

Junk it.

And they still can't come up with a lead
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2020, 04:52:09 AM »

Why are we posting this here if it's likely fake?
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2020, 08:01:32 AM »

This is the same poll that used to be called Peoples Pundit Daily. I don't know why it was banned on 538, but I've come across the guy who does these polls' tweets before occasionally and he seems like a bit of a grifter to me (i.e. someone who professes to be a numbers/polling expert but pretty much tells his audience exactly what they want to hear) but who knows, maybe that's just my left-wing bias?

Also, decimal points always come across as a red flag indicating amateur hour to me (unless you have a absolutely gigantic sample).
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tenyasha
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2020, 10:33:27 AM »

This is the same poll that used to be called Peoples Pundit Daily. I don't know why it was banned on 538, but I've come across the guy who does these polls' tweets before occasionally and he seems like a bit of a grifter to me (i.e. someone who professes to be a numbers/polling expert but pretty much tells his audience exactly what they want to hear) but who knows, maybe that's just my left-wing bias?

Also, decimal points always come across as a red flag indicating amateur hour to me (unless you have a absolutely gigantic sample).
They have a sample of 1000 is that big enough for decimals?

Why are we posting this here if it's likely fake?
I am no certain if it is, as 538 didnt disclose how they found out. Also this pollster claimed to have gotten Michigan Wisconsin and Florida right in 2016, is there a way to do well on these types of predictions by faking numbers with out the help of dumb luck?
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