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October 24, 2020, 12:26:41 AM
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  Indiana SurveyUSA: Trump +7
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Author Topic: Indiana SurveyUSA: Trump +7  (Read 1156 times)
Jayde
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« on: October 14, 2020, 02:02:03 PM »



Poll crowdfunded by election twitter lmfao
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2020, 02:03:10 PM »

Good for Trump.
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soundchaser
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« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2020, 02:03:23 PM »

This looks pretty devastating for Trump. He’s not even over 50%.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2020, 02:03:56 PM »

Starting to feel pretty good about the Midwest.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2020, 02:04:13 PM »

WOW.

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Single Issue Covid Voter
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« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2020, 02:05:09 PM »

This is just further confirmation SUSA is trash.
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Atlanta 1997 World Champs
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« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2020, 02:05:27 PM »

Biden is not winning Hamilton County.....maybe in 2024/2028 a D will

Biden lose Hamilton by 6
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2020, 02:05:30 PM »

Biden is dominating in the Indianapolis Metro Area.

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Beida
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« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2020, 02:05:49 PM »

I expect something like 55-43 Trump in the end. If Biden can get that margin down beneath 10, he's got the election locked up.
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new_patomic
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« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2020, 02:11:25 PM »

If Biden is really only winning Missouri by mid-high single digits, then it makes sense that his margin in Indiana is similar. Especially if some of the suburban polling we've seen is anywhere close to correct.

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2020, 02:12:13 PM »

If Biden is really only winning Missouri by mid-high single digits, then it makes sense that his margin in Indiana is similar. Especially if some of the suburban polling we've seen is anywhere close to correct.



Yeah, I don't get why people think this is so off. We're literally seeing Biden +12-15 polls nationwide and the national average is Biden +11. When you're running nearly 10% ahead of Clinton 2016, you're going to see margins like this
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2020, 02:12:30 PM »

I expect something like 55-43 Trump in the end. If Biden can get that margin down beneath 10, he's got the election locked up.

So you expect Trump to get literally all the undecideds? Doubt it.
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Beida
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« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2020, 02:14:09 PM »

I expect something like 55-43 Trump in the end. If Biden can get that margin down beneath 10, he's got the election locked up.

So you expect Trump to get literally all the undecideds? Doubt it.

Actually, Trump 55-43 would mean Biden was doing much better than HRC (almost 6% better) and Trump fell short of his 2016 performance (which had a 6% third-party vote) by a bit. I don't think it's going out on a limb.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #13 on: October 14, 2020, 02:15:14 PM »

B-b-but muh “state polls aren’t consistent with a double digit national Biden lead” 😭
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Buzz
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« Reply #14 on: October 14, 2020, 02:19:55 PM »

SUSA was off in Indiana by 6 points in 2018.  Regardless, a bad poll here for Mr. Trump!
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darthpi
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« Reply #15 on: October 14, 2020, 02:21:21 PM »

Horrifically bad result for Trump, and consistent with what we have been seeing out of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio.
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Arch
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« Reply #16 on: October 14, 2020, 02:21:41 PM »

Yep, state polls caught up with national polling, as I expected. If Trump is in single digits in Indiana, the Midwest is in revolt at this point, essentially. OH, MI, WI, MN, IA, IL should all be in Biden's column to some extent.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #17 on: October 14, 2020, 02:22:36 PM »



Poll crowdfunded by election twitter lmfao

Bunching northeast and northwest Indiana together as a common region demonstrates the guy doesn't know the state at all.
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Jayde
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« Reply #18 on: October 14, 2020, 02:27:31 PM »



Poll crowdfunded by election twitter lmfao

Bunching northeast and northwest Indiana together as a common region demonstrates the guy doesn't know the state at all.

He's from Indiana, and I believe that's a limitation of SurveyUSA itself. I've checked other polls and all of their polls have no more than 3 or 4 regions set
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Gass3268
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« Reply #19 on: October 14, 2020, 02:30:05 PM »



Poll crowdfunded by election twitter lmfao

Bunching northeast and northwest Indiana together as a common region demonstrates the guy doesn't know the state at all.

He's from Indiana, and I believe that's a limitation of SurveyUSA itself. I've checked other polls and all of their polls have no more than 3 or 4 regions set

It probably would have made more sense to take the totality of what is the north and central regions and split that into a northwest and northeast.
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You Reap What You Sow
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« Reply #20 on: October 14, 2020, 02:32:30 PM »

Patient Zero and Fly Bait aren't doing so well in the heartland.
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StateBoiler
fe234
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« Reply #21 on: October 14, 2020, 02:34:38 PM »



Poll crowdfunded by election twitter lmfao

Bunching northeast and northwest Indiana together as a common region demonstrates the guy doesn't know the state at all.

He's from Indiana, and I believe that's a limitation of SurveyUSA itself. I've checked other polls and all of their polls have no more than 3 or 4 regions set

It's like putting together Indiana and Illinois together and calling it a region on a national level because they border one another, completely ignoring the fact that the scale of where you're casting votes from in both places (Chicago vs. Evansville) can wildly swing results. It doesn't tell you anything because it's 527 voters which is a low number and who is from where in what region?

The methodology of the poll is sh**t is what I'm saying. I'm not disputing Trump is leading Indiana by a smaller margin than he won by in 2016, but the methodology of the poll is still sh**t. If it's a SurveyUSA problem, perhaps that means SurveyUSA shouldn't be used for credible polling.
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Ljube
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« Reply #22 on: October 14, 2020, 02:36:42 PM »

Absolutely devastating poll for Trump.
Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, they are all correlated.

With poll results like this, he is not winning re-election.
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StateBoiler
fe234
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« Reply #23 on: October 14, 2020, 02:39:08 PM »

Absolutely devastating poll for Trump.
Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, they are all correlated.

With poll results like this, he is not winning re-election.


HOLY sh**t MOTHER OF GOD CHRIST ALMIGHTY!

I am shocked, SHOCKED~! Who would've known even way back in March that Trump wasn't winning?

In other news, the sky is blue. Andrew Ellison is going to conduct a Twitter crowdfunded SurveyUSA poll on this. His region 1 that stretches from Laos to Uruguay have stated in the affirmative on this 83%.
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #24 on: October 14, 2020, 02:39:47 PM »

B-b-but muh “state polls aren’t consistent with a double digit national Biden lead” 😭

Biden's strength with olds seems to be doing a bit of depolarisation. There seems to be a curious phenomenon where he's getting extremely strong polling in red states like MT, MO, IN, even WV, while the battleground states are moving towards him slightly less decisively from the pre-debate leads.
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