Right-Wing Populist World Leaders Worried That if Trump Goes, They Will Go Too

[CumbrianLefty]

That being said, right-wing populism is already in retreat in many countries. It's not 2016/17 anymore.

Which is an argument against "they'll be back bigger and badder than ever in 2024" (in a US context assuming Trump indeed loses, or apply your own date as applicable) Its not just the personal failings of Trump/Bolsonaro et al, but the fact their ideology *doesn't* have the easy solutions to often long term and intractable problems that it promised.

[Red Velvet]

That being said, right-wing populism is already in retreat in many countries. It's not 2016/17 anymore.

Which is an argument against "they'll be back bigger and badder than ever in 2024" (in a US context assuming Trump indeed loses, or apply your own date as applicable) Its not just the personal failings of Trump/Bolsonaro et al, but the fact their ideology *doesn't* have the easy solutions to often long term and intractable problems that it promised.

That’s what I believe in, the movement will naturally fail for being substantially empty and only about a strong rhetoric, easy promises and cult of personality.

That said, I don’t underestimate the power of a strong brainwash due to these factors. Movement will keep existing due to the passion it generated but it will be weaker and not as a threatening to the institutions as it was/still is today in some places.

In US it will likely be a slower process because of the bipartisan nature of their politics, which stimulates polarization because it’s more about being against the only other existing side, but in places with multiple parties people are more likely to not be as loyal to one single personality or political parties, so it could be faster.

[Agonized-Statism]

That being said, right-wing populism is already in retreat in many countries. It's not 2016/17 anymore.

Which is an argument against "they'll be back bigger and badder than ever in 2024" (in a US context assuming Trump indeed loses, or apply your own date as applicable) Its not just the personal failings of Trump/Bolsonaro et al, but the fact their ideology *doesn't* have the easy solutions to often long term and intractable problems that it promised.

That’s what I believe in, the movement will naturally fail for being substantially empty and only about a strong rhetoric, easy promises and cult of personality.

That said, I don’t underestimate the power of a strong brainwash due to these factors. Movement will keep existing due to the passion it generated but it will be weaker and not as a threatening to the institutions as it was/still is today in some places.

In US it will likely be a slower process because of the bipartisan nature of their politics, which stimulates polarization because it’s more about being against the only other existing side, but in places with multiple parties people are more likely to not be as loyal to one single personality or political parties, so it could be faster.

As a Brazilian, how do you see Bolsonaro's administration ending? Given the stresses of COVID-19, do you see any chance for another Pink Tide government, and if so, by election or armed struggle?

[Red Velvet]

That being said, right-wing populism is already in retreat in many countries. It's not 2016/17 anymore.

Which is an argument against "they'll be back bigger and badder than ever in 2024" (in a US context assuming Trump indeed loses, or apply your own date as applicable) Its not just the personal failings of Trump/Bolsonaro et al, but the fact their ideology *doesn't* have the easy solutions to often long term and intractable problems that it promised.

That’s what I believe in, the movement will naturally fail for being substantially empty and only about a strong rhetoric, easy promises and cult of personality.

That said, I don’t underestimate the power of a strong brainwash due to these factors. Movement will keep existing due to the passion it generated but it will be weaker and not as a threatening to the institutions as it was/still is today in some places.

In US it will likely be a slower process because of the bipartisan nature of their politics, which stimulates polarization because it’s more about being against the only other existing side, but in places with multiple parties people are more likely to not be as loyal to one single personality or political parties, so it could be faster.

As a Brazilian, how do you see Bolsonaro's administration ending? Given the stresses of COVID-19, do you see any chance for another Pink Tide government, and if so, by election or armed struggle?

COVID-19 had the same impact here as in the US, meaning people mostly don’t give a damn about it nowadays lol.

It initially had more of a slight negative effect on Bolsonaro popularity at the beginning but after the financial help started being given to the poor, his popularity started going up since many of the poorest citizens actually were receiving more than they ever earned before the pandemic. People don’t know or don’t care that the financial stimulus was approved by congress, not by Bolsonaro. Everything good and bad regarding the economy is always attributed to the president.

So no, Bolsonaro isn’t under any risk due to COVID-19 management. He actually recovered the popularity he had at the start of his term in these last 3 months. It’s unstable support though that no one knows if it will last even after the financial help ends in January 2021.

Last time I’ve ever heard of the left in Brazil talking about picking on guns to fight against a fascist government was during the dictatorship in the 70s and I wasn’t even alive at that time. The only gun enthusiasts I see nowadays are the Bolsonaros and their supporters. Brazilian left is too busy talking about neutral pronouns or fighting between themselves, I don’t see an organized movement to take power there when even in mayoral elections there are tons of left parties running and fragmenting the vote instead of creating an united broad front.

Bolsonaro’s biggest opposition is... himself actually. All different sectors of the right got behind him in 2018 and now all that excitement has dissipated in less than two years because he fights with people inside his own government. He abandoned his party, lost two out of three of his more popular ministers and the other one mostly is losing his prestige, divided his base and that’s only a small part of his problems. It’s easy to be a guy that just criticizes the establishment and says sh** in the congress, a very different one is actually having to construct stuff and head a nation when you’re a disorganized mess.

In short, Brazil is more like a weird reality show right now, not a dramatic story where the fascist will destroy the democratic institutions or where heroes will take a stand by counterattacking and taking power back. My prediction is that next two years will be chaotic and depending on how things stand in 2022, Bolsonaro will either lose or be re-elected. If the economy gets much worse or If he starts doing too much incompetent stuff, he’ll lose. If things stay the same level (because they most definitely won’t get better) then he’ll likely be re-elected, especially if the left doesn’t unite under a single option.

Mayoral elections next month will be a good thermometer to measure potential electoral prospects.

[BaldEagle1991]

Well this also means Duterte is screwed

[AltWorlder]

I somehow don't think people in India or Italy are just going to stop supporting Modi or Salvini just because Trump loses. I mean, this typically isn't how or why people decide who to vote for...

Modi no, but it sounds like Salvini has problems of his own that’s undermining him, both out of the party (the Brothers of Italy are competing for far right votes), and inside (there’s a Venetian separatist figure who’s become a possible rival for party head). You also hear Bolsonaro experiencing similar grief as well. Some of these guys are under pressure and if Trump goes, that might be an additional sign to voters who might associate them as failed strongmen.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I bear skepticism towards the alleged strength of the domino effect here, but the tortured Brexit process seemed to have diminished (in at least the short-to-medium term) a lot of other nations' desires for exits from, as opposed to reforms of, the EU.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well this also means Duterte is screwed

Though isn't he actually genuinely left wing in *certain* respects (same with Mexico)?

[AltWorlder]

Being so law and order so as to promote vigilante killings against drug dealers probably puts him in the right.

[CumbrianLefty]

Being so law and order so as to promote vigilante killings against drug dealers probably puts him in the right.

Well that's why I said "in certain respects"