Quinnipiac: Biden +7 in GA, +1 in OH

[kwabbit]

I wish those Georgia numbers were true, but I sincerely doubt it. Still probably lean Biden at this point.

Can anyone suggest from the crosstabs why the number might be a bit optimistic for Biden? Or is it more likely just an issue of m o e?

I don't think the numbers are really that outlier-ish. Biden is getting 36% of Whites and 89% of Blacks. If anything, he could do a few % better with blacks in the end, and given Biden's strength with White voters, 36% doesn't seem like that *much* of a stretch.

Abrams got 25% of Whites against Kemp in a very strong Democratic year in 2018 and Clinton got 21%. If Biden was actually getting 36% of Whites in the Deep South, this would be Biden + >20 election. 30% is ambitious, let alone 36%.

[kwabbit]

Abrams got 25% of Whites against Kemp in a very strong Democratic year in 2018 and Clinton got 21%.

Obvious observation that unlike them Biden is an old white guy.   

Kerry got 23% and Southern Whites haven't exactly been trending Dem.

[kwabbit]

Abrams got 25% of Whites against Kemp in a very strong Democratic year in 2018 and Clinton got 21%.

Obvious observation that unlike them Biden is an old white guy.   

Kerry got 23% and Southern Whites haven't exactly been trending Dem.

You can't really compare Joe Biden to John Kerry lol.

*NOTE: I'm not saying that I believe Biden will win 36% of the white vote in Georgia*

Biden does likely have more relative appeal to these voters than Kerry, but Dem performance amongst these voters has been cratered for a very long time. The 'dead cat bounce' that Biden will likely get among Midwestern/Appalachian Non-College Whites is less of a factor among this group.

[kwabbit]

You can't really compare Joe Biden to John Kerry lol.

Neither can we compare Bush to Trump.

There's only so many elections to compare this one to, but when in every election during the past 16 years the Democrats have gotten 20-25% of the White vote, 30% is ambitious, let alone 36%. Of course Obama and Abrams were not White and Clinton was extremely hated in rural America, but John Kerry, who did decently well with Blue Dog Southern Democrats as a whole, got 23%. Kerry may have had a reputation as a 'Massachusetts Liberal' toxic to middle America, but in reality he kept AR and MO under 10 points and won the ancestral Dem counties in KY and WY quite handily. Carter and Nunn, too, got around 23% despite having historic family names that surely would have made them more palatable to GA Whites.