Quinnipiac: Biden +7 in GA, +1 in OH
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  Quinnipiac: Biden +7 in GA, +1 in OH
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Author Topic: Quinnipiac: Biden +7 in GA, +1 in OH  (Read 5909 times)
Asta
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« Reply #75 on: October 14, 2020, 02:38:02 PM »

Q also showed +7 for Florida senate/governor race. We all know how that turned out.

Q usually doesn't favor one party over another long term, but within the last 2 years at least, they've been pretty pro-D. I wouldn't count on GA going Biden +7 though he has a decent shot.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #76 on: October 14, 2020, 03:15:36 PM »


You can't really compare Joe Biden to John Kerry lol.


Neither can we compare Bush to Trump.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #77 on: October 14, 2020, 03:35:53 PM »

Could this be the devastating poll for the GOP that was rumored to be coming a few days ago?

If so, it's exactly how I figured the reaction to be
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kwabbit
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« Reply #78 on: October 14, 2020, 03:45:56 PM »

You can't really compare Joe Biden to John Kerry lol.


Neither can we compare Bush to Trump.


There's only so many elections to compare this one to, but when in every election during the past 16 years the Democrats have gotten 20-25% of the White vote, 30% is ambitious, let alone 36%. Of course Obama and Abrams were not White and Clinton was extremely hated in rural America, but John Kerry, who did decently well with Blue Dog Southern Democrats as a whole, got 23%. Kerry may have had a reputation as a 'Massachusetts Liberal' toxic to middle America, but in reality he kept AR and MO under 10 points and won the ancestral Dem counties in KY and WY quite handily. Carter and Nunn, too, got around 23% despite having historic family names that surely would have made them more palatable to GA Whites.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #79 on: October 14, 2020, 04:32:44 PM »

This poll shows Biden doing 19 points better than Abrams with white college voters and 24 points better than Abrams with white non-college voters; 42 & 28 points better than Clinton, respectively.

C'mon. If this is even close to accurate, Biden's winning >400 EVs.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #80 on: October 14, 2020, 06:16:24 PM »

God dammit, Quinnipiac! You have now convinced me that Biden is down significantly in Ohio!
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #81 on: October 14, 2020, 06:21:50 PM »

In fairness to Quinnipiac, it does little good to obsess over crosstabs when they aren't severely out of whack because the MoEs for them are much higher. National polls that suggest Trump is at 15%+ with African-American voters, for instance, can still have credible toplines even if they look really weird under the hood.

That said, Q's toplines seem to be coming out of an authoritarian NUT map these days. Biden +7 in GA would be shocking and erodes their credibility a bit.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #82 on: October 14, 2020, 07:53:42 PM »

The +7 is probably a stretch, but it's more noteworthy that this is 4 points better for him than the last Q poll of Georgia (end of September)

Georgia was R+7 last year, if you take off 7 points from Joe's 10 point NPV lead, Joe is up 3. That is without Georgia continuing its lightning fast D trend. Georgia is likely to trend D another 2-3 points this year, bring Joe's margin up to 5-6 points.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #83 on: October 14, 2020, 07:58:38 PM »

The +7 is probably a stretch, but it's more noteworthy that this is 4 points better for him than the last Q poll of Georgia (end of September)

Georgia was R+7 last year, if you take off 7 points from Joe's 10 point NPV lead, Joe is up 3. That is without Georgia continuing its lightning fast D trend. Georgia is likely to trend D another 2-3 points this year, bring Joe's margin up to 5-6 points.

It isn't likely to continue this trend. The state will continue to march in a Democratic direction, but Biden's fairly large nationwide margins imply he's winning over large numbers of persuadable, high-propensity voters and there are very few of those in Georgia, so the swing will be underwhelming. The Democratic vote share and floor will rise in the state, but it will "trend" Republican this year just as evangelical voters sometimes trend Democratic when there is a big swing to Republicans.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #84 on: October 14, 2020, 09:02:21 PM »



Need I say more?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #85 on: October 14, 2020, 09:03:37 PM »
« Edited: October 14, 2020, 09:06:52 PM by #proudtikitorchmarcher »

The +7 is probably a stretch, but it's more noteworthy that this is 4 points better for him than the last Q poll of Georgia (end of September)

Georgia was R+7 last year, if you take off 7 points from Joe's 10 point NPV lead, Joe is up 3. That is without Georgia continuing its lightning fast D trend. Georgia is likely to trend D another 2-3 points this year, bring Joe's margin up to 5-6 points.

Well it was D+2 in 2014, clearly Georgia is trending R

Biden should lose Georgia by 7 points Smiley

Overall lets not act like Georgia is heavily dependent on the NPV or national environment. It does help here for getting over the top but isn't everything.
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republican1993
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« Reply #86 on: October 14, 2020, 09:23:07 PM »

q pac giving us more stupid polls lets check about on this
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #87 on: October 14, 2020, 09:27:26 PM »

New Poll: Georgia President by Quinnipiac University on 2020-10-12

Summary: D: 51%, R: 44%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #88 on: October 14, 2020, 09:29:16 PM »

New Poll: Ohio President by Quinnipiac University on 2020-10-12

Summary: D: 48%, R: 47%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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QAnonKelly
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« Reply #89 on: October 14, 2020, 10:06:05 PM »

It's now at 50/50 on the 538 model.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #90 on: October 15, 2020, 03:02:33 AM »
« Edited: October 15, 2020, 03:06:56 AM by Blairite »

I appreciate that pollsters aren't herding but Q looks increasingly detached from the consensus. A fitting name for the times.

Quote
Q has Biden getting 36% of Whites in GA and 89% of Blacks. On a good night for Biden, I don't see how that's impossible. If anything, he likely hits 90%+ with Blacks, and if Whites are really turning against Trump, Biden getting to 36% is not that out of the realm of possibility.

Except that it would be in defiance of the longest and stubbornest trends of all: the movement of Deep South white voters, particularly rural/small-town southern white voters, away from the Democratic Party. If Biden's managing mean reversion, this isn't going to be where it happens much, if at all.

I thought the trend here was that Democrats were starting to win suburban/college-educated whites (or at least improve their abysmal margins) while basically hitting their floor with rural/non-college-educated whites?
That's true but a huge percentage of whites in Georgia are rural/small town. If you look at GA whites by CVAP, you get:
44.1% in rural and small-town Georgia.
25.4% in Atlanta's core 5 counties
19.8% in exurban Atlanta
10.6% in Georgia's mid-sized metros

If Trump wins the last group 90-10, that means Biden has to win the other three groups by a cumulative 55-45. Ultimately, I don't see that happening. If Biden wins Atlanta whites 65-35 (unprecedented but not impossible), he has to get at least 35% with white people in places like Cumming, Warner Robbins, and Peachtree City. I just don't see that happening. A majority of white Dem votes in GA come out of urban and inner-suburban Atlanta and that just can't stand up to the rest of the white population population-wise.

What is interesting is the white vote by CD. Traditionally, Democrats have only won the white vote in GA-05 (ITP Atlanta). This time around, they might be able to win it in GA-06 (North Atlanta) which has traditionally been second closest. I don't see anywhere else being viable yet.
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #91 on: October 15, 2020, 08:07:22 AM »

Biden isn't up 7 in Georgia (blame the weird Democratic Quinnipiac bias with southern whites), but at this point anyone who has it as anything other than toss-up or tilt/lean D is out to lunch.
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VAR
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« Reply #92 on: November 11, 2020, 10:04:41 AM »

qUiNnIpIaC iS pIcKiNg uP oN sOmEtHiNg!!1!
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