Quinnipiac: Biden +7 in GA, +1 in OH
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  Quinnipiac: Biden +7 in GA, +1 in OH
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Author Topic: Quinnipiac: Biden +7 in GA, +1 in OH  (Read 5924 times)
Alben Barkley
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« Reply #50 on: October 14, 2020, 01:25:36 PM »

It’s happening!

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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #51 on: October 14, 2020, 01:26:43 PM »

I appreciate that pollsters aren't herding but Q looks increasingly detached from the consensus. A fitting name for the times.

Quote
Q has Biden getting 36% of Whites in GA and 89% of Blacks. On a good night for Biden, I don't see how that's impossible. If anything, he likely hits 90%+ with Blacks, and if Whites are really turning against Trump, Biden getting to 36% is not that out of the realm of possibility.

Except that it would be in defiance of the longest and stubbornest trends of all: the movement of Deep South white voters, particularly rural/small-town southern white voters, away from the Democratic Party. If Biden's managing mean reversion, this isn't going to be where it happens much, if at all.

I thought the trend was that Democrats were starting to win suburban/college-educated whites (or at least improve their margins) while basically hitting their floor with rural/non-college-educated whites?

They probably haven't quite hit the floor yet in the pure rural areas where the GOP hasn't gone all-out until recently. They certainly didn't in 2016 because they did worse in 2018.

If you look at extremely polarised states like MS, there is still a contingent of very old boomers/Silent Gen rural white voters holding the ancestral Democrat candle. They have yet to pass out of the electorate.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #52 on: October 14, 2020, 01:26:46 PM »

Democrats outvoted Republicans in the primary by more than this, so it is more than plausible.

This is the only pollster that got VA-Gov right in 2017 and I can recall that poll being called inaccurate too. The Ohio poll is close to what other polls are showing so it doesn't seem as if Quinnipiac has a bias issue.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #53 on: October 14, 2020, 01:27:19 PM »

I wish those Georgia numbers were true, but I sincerely doubt it. Still probably lean Biden at this point.

Can anyone suggest from the crosstabs why the number might be a bit optimistic for Biden? Or is it more likely just an issue of m o e?

I don't think the numbers are really that outlier-ish. Biden is getting 36% of Whites and 89% of Blacks. If anything, he could do a few % better with blacks in the end, and given Biden's strength with White voters, 36% doesn't seem like that *much* of a stretch.

Abrams got 25% of Whites against Kemp in a very strong Democratic year in 2018 and Clinton got 21%. If Biden was actually getting 36% of Whites in the Deep South, this would be Biden + >20 election. 30% is ambitious, let alone 36%.
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Malarkey Decider
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« Reply #54 on: October 14, 2020, 01:27:35 PM »

I wish those Georgia numbers were true, but I sincerely doubt it. Still probably lean Biden at this point.

Can anyone suggest from the crosstabs why the number might be a bit optimistic for Biden? Or is it more likely just an issue of m o e?

I don't think the numbers are really that outlier-ish. Biden is getting 36% of Whites and 89% of Blacks. If anything, he could do a few % better with blacks in the end, and given Biden's strength with White voters, 36% doesn't seem like that *much* of a stretch.
Biden will not get anywhere close to 36% with GA whites. Max for him is like 32, he only needs like 29% to win.
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Hammy
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« Reply #55 on: October 14, 2020, 01:29:24 PM »

If you believe Georgia's number here and not Trafalgar's Florida poll (and vice-versa) you are a hack.
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #56 on: October 14, 2020, 01:30:09 PM »
« Edited: October 14, 2020, 01:42:23 PM by AncestralDemocrat. »

Does any other pollster release outliers at such a frequency as Quinnipiac ?

They're nearly worse than Trafalgar.

OH is not an outlier. SC was not an outlier. PA was not an outlier. They either hit the averages or had other high quality polls backing them up.
Point me towards the high quality polls which correlated Quinnipiac's data that showed Biden 11 points up in Florida.. or Trump leading by one in South Carolina ?

If you believe Quinnipiac's current estimation of the race, Trump is down by landslide margins nationally, with deep red states being tossups, yet he's still leading by 5 points in Texas. lmao.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #57 on: October 14, 2020, 01:30:45 PM »

Ohio → Tossup/Tilt R

Georgia → Tossup/Tilt D
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YE
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« Reply #58 on: October 14, 2020, 01:32:22 PM »

Q has Biden getting 36% of Whites in GA and 89% of Blacks. On a good night for Biden, I don't see how that's impossible. If anything, he likely hits 90%+ with Blacks, and if Whites are really turning against Trump, Biden getting to 36% is not that out of the realm of possibility. I don't think Biden will actually win by 7, but Q-pac actually seems to be picking up on what's happening in GA compared to the polls that still have Trump +1-3.

36% with Whites is a serious stretch. 28-30% is not however and that'd be enough for a Dem win in GA and is what polling has consistently showed in the state. 
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ExSky
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« Reply #59 on: October 14, 2020, 01:32:48 PM »

This forum:

“Yeah the state polls just don’t match up with Biden up by 11 points, sorry!”

[high quality state polls are released consistent with a Biden double digit national lead]

“Outlier!!1! Trash poll!!1!!”

its mostly just buzz saying it to himself to try and feel better
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Crumpets
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« Reply #60 on: October 14, 2020, 01:35:47 PM »
« Edited: October 14, 2020, 01:39:42 PM by Crumpets »

If you believe Georgia's number here and not Trafalgar's Florida poll (and vice-versa) you are a hack.

The thing is, the Trafalgar Florida poll is perfectly in line with Florida being a tossup state and possibly even a low-single-digits lead for Biden. There's pretty much no way to read this Quinnipiac poll as anything but "Biden is up in Georgia" or "the poll is completely wrong in every regard." I don't think he'll win by 7 and I still have Georgia going to Trump in my prediction map, but I'd argue there's much more reason to take this poll as solid evidence of Georgia moving in Biden's favor than to use the Trafalgar poll as evidence of Florida moving to Trump when both are within in the margin of error with the polling consensus of a small Biden lead in each state.
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riceowl
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« Reply #61 on: October 14, 2020, 01:37:36 PM »

May I please see the blue-red Georgia gif please?
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emailking
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« Reply #62 on: October 14, 2020, 01:41:19 PM »

I wonder if GA will flip to Biden on 538 after this poll.

It did.
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Figueira
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« Reply #63 on: October 14, 2020, 01:42:58 PM »

Why even look at polls if you're going to solely judge them based on whether they fit your preconceptions?
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #64 on: October 14, 2020, 01:43:21 PM »

Things that can be true simultaneously

1. Quinnipiac is a generally decent pollster historically

2. Quinnipiac's numbers in the South this cycle have been probably unrealistically favorable for Biden

3. Even accounting for Quinnipiac's Biden lean in the South, this is still a good poll for Biden, especially considering the shift from their previous poll of Georgia

4. Polling averages are better than individual polls, so just throw this in the average and move on with your day
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #65 on: October 14, 2020, 01:44:50 PM »

Biden isn't leading by seven there but I could see something like+4-5 on a really good night for Biden
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Brittain33
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« Reply #66 on: October 14, 2020, 01:45:59 PM »

Rassipiac University Reports, that should cancel each bias out.

I prefer Quafalgar. Go big or go home! They’re either going to look like geniuses or huge outliers.
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Rand
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« Reply #67 on: October 14, 2020, 01:49:20 PM »

Covid von Putinlover will be in Georgia on Friday. He might want to add some more campaign events in the Peach State.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #68 on: October 14, 2020, 01:56:42 PM »

Abrams got 25% of Whites against Kemp in a very strong Democratic year in 2018 and Clinton got 21%.

Obvious observation that unlike them Biden is an old white guy.   
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kwabbit
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« Reply #69 on: October 14, 2020, 02:11:07 PM »

Abrams got 25% of Whites against Kemp in a very strong Democratic year in 2018 and Clinton got 21%.

Obvious observation that unlike them Biden is an old white guy.   

Kerry got 23% and Southern Whites haven't exactly been trending Dem.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #70 on: October 14, 2020, 02:13:04 PM »

Does any other pollster release outliers at such a frequency as Quinnipiac ?

They're nearly worse than Trafalgar.

OH is not an outlier. SC was not an outlier. PA was not an outlier. They either hit the averages or had other high quality polls backing them up.

lmao

They had the SC Senate race tied, which it is, and Trump about 5/6, which we've seen in other polls now??
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VAR
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« Reply #71 on: October 14, 2020, 02:14:47 PM »

Does any other pollster release outliers at such a frequency as Quinnipiac ?

They're nearly worse than Trafalgar.

OH is not an outlier. SC was not an outlier. PA was not an outlier. They either hit the averages or had other high quality polls backing them up.

lmao

They had the SC Senate race tied, which it is, and Trump about 5/6, which we've seen in other polls now??

Their last SC-PRES poll was an outlier.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #72 on: October 14, 2020, 02:19:36 PM »

Abrams got 25% of Whites against Kemp in a very strong Democratic year in 2018 and Clinton got 21%.

Obvious observation that unlike them Biden is an old white guy.   

Kerry got 23% and Southern Whites haven't exactly been trending Dem.
You can't really compare Joe Biden to John Kerry lol.

*NOTE: I'm not saying that I believe Biden will win 36% of the white vote in Georgia*
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Pericles
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« Reply #73 on: October 14, 2020, 02:20:03 PM »

I have a niggling suspicion that the polls are underrating Biden in Georgia. Clinton only lost it by 5 points and it has been trending D strongly. Yet the recent polls seem to imply it trends R slightly, which is odd. Maybe it's inelastic, but maybe pollsters are afraid to actually show a clear Biden lead. regardless of whether 7 points is accurate or not, I applaud Quinnipiac for having the balls to publish what their data was telling them.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #74 on: October 14, 2020, 02:35:32 PM »

Abrams got 25% of Whites against Kemp in a very strong Democratic year in 2018 and Clinton got 21%.

Obvious observation that unlike them Biden is an old white guy.   

Kerry got 23% and Southern Whites haven't exactly been trending Dem.
You can't really compare Joe Biden to John Kerry lol.

*NOTE: I'm not saying that I believe Biden will win 36% of the white vote in Georgia*

Biden does likely have more relative appeal to these voters than Kerry, but Dem performance amongst these voters has been cratered for a very long time. The 'dead cat bounce' that Biden will likely get among Midwestern/Appalachian Non-College Whites is less of a factor among this group.
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