VA-10 Garin-Hart-Yang (D): Biden +21

[TheRocketRaccoon]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1316374237385494531/tweet]

[kph14]

Tim Kaine won it by 22 in 2018. Seems about right

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1316374237385494531

Fixed the formatting

Clinton won this district 52%-42% in 2016.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Virginia is not going to be close. Trump pretty much maxed out the rural vote in 2016 and still lost the state.

[Sir Mohamed]

This was Barbara Comstock's district and one of the closest watched in 2018 to see how much the suburban move was real. Very likely Biden wins VA by low double digits. I'm curious whether the GOP will ever regain strength here beyond 2020. More likely not.

[The Mikado]

This was Barbara Comstock's district and one of the closest watched in 2018 to see how much the suburban move was real. Very likely Biden wins VA by low double digits. I'm curious whether the GOP will ever regain strength here beyond 2020. More likely not.

GOP should promote urbanism in DC proper and advocate for DC repealing the rule against skyscrapers in the district. Skyscraper apartment complexes allowing tens or eventually hundreds of thousands of new residences in DC proper might start to suck some population out of NOVA and back into the District.

[KaiserDave]

Virginia is not going to be close. Trump pretty much maxed out the rural vote in 2016 and still lost the state.

Well, I think Gillespie actually maxed it out in 2017 more than Trump, and he did....worse. Your point stands however.

[SevenEleven]

This was Barbara Comstock's district and one of the closest watched in 2018 to see how much the suburban move was real. Very likely Biden wins VA by low double digits. I'm curious whether the GOP will ever regain strength here beyond 2020. More likely not.

GOP should promote urbanism in DC proper and advocate for DC repealing the rule against skyscrapers in the district. Skyscraper apartment complexes allowing tens or eventually hundreds of thousands of new residences in DC proper might start to suck some population out of NOVA and back into the District.

This won't work. Once DC gets admitted as a state, you will see huge developments (eventually) in areas away from the Capitol area (NE in particular). But the people who want to live in DC and the people who live in NoVA is a very thin venn diagram. And you risk lower suburban property values bringing more black voters into VA, actually weakening the GOP position in VA.