MO SD-19 (MOScout): Biden +8
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  MO SD-19 (MOScout): Biden +8
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Author Topic: MO SD-19 (MOScout): Biden +8  (Read 910 times)
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« on: October 24, 2020, 09:08:49 AM »
« edited: October 24, 2020, 09:44:20 AM by Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds »


Columbia, MO, 47-46 Clinton in 2016, 48.68-48.65 Obama in 2012.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2020, 09:10:11 AM »

Not sure it's fair to publish this stuff as it's behind a high but (admittedly penetrable) paywall. I assume 538 lifts their statewide polls with permission.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2020, 09:11:01 AM »

Honestly, hoping for a bigger swing towards Biden, but this areas has been trending away from Ds for quite a while so I'm not unhappy.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2020, 09:13:11 AM »


No, it's Columbia.

Rowden is the most vulnerable state senator by far. Not sure if the supermajority-break is reachable in the Senate, though. It is in the House.

Honestly, hoping for a bigger swing towards Biden, but this areas has been trending away from Ds for quite a while so I'm not unhappy.

it's literally the most progressive part of the state but ok
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2020, 09:15:28 AM »


No, it's Columbia.

Rowden is the most vulnerable state senator by far. Not sure if the supermajority-break is reachable in the Senate, though. It is in the House.

Honestly, hoping for a bigger swing towards Biden, but this areas has been trending away from Ds for quite a while so I'm not unhappy.

it's literally the most progressive part of the state but ok

Simillar to how Western WI used to be the most progressive part of the state. Columbia isn't a very big city for what it's worth; it just seems like a place Ds are on borrowed time on.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2020, 09:16:13 AM »

Not sure it's fair to publish this stuff as it's behind a high but (admittedly penetrable) paywall. I assume 538 lifts their statewide polls with permission.

I don’t think the results of a poll are copyrightable.  An article written about the results of a poll is protected by copyright, but just the statement “Biden is leading Trump 52-45 in Pennsylvania” is not by itself a creative work.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2020, 09:37:37 AM »

How much would the University of Missouri be affected by students not voting on campus this year?
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Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
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« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2020, 09:47:53 AM »

Simillar to how Western WI used to be the most progressive part of the state. Columbia isn't a very big city for what it's worth; it just seems like a place Ds are on borrowed time on.

...what? Columbia is moving left, not right. It's a university city, and a lot of the characteristics that normally make state capitals D land in Columbia instead (which is why Jefferson City is so R). It has strong growth, and it's the "cool" place to move in Missouri (and has been for a while).

There is no place where Democrats are "on borrowed time" in Missouri. The time has run out, everywhere. There is nowhere to go but up.


Also, by "most progressive" I meant most culturally progressive, not most D. Bellefontaine Neighbors is where every single person is a Democrat, Columbia is where people ask for your pronouns when they meet you.

How much would the University of Missouri be affected by students not voting on campus this year?

Most college students aren't registered to vote at their college. The effect will be minimal.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2020, 04:20:34 PM »

Simillar to how Western WI used to be the most progressive part of the state. Columbia isn't a very big city for what it's worth; it just seems like a place Ds are on borrowed time on.

...what? Columbia is moving left, not right. It's a university city, and a lot of the characteristics that normally make state capitals D land in Columbia instead (which is why Jefferson City is so R). It has strong growth, and it's the "cool" place to move in Missouri (and has been for a while).

There is no place where Democrats are "on borrowed time" in Missouri. The time has run out, everywhere. There is nowhere to go but up.


Also, by "most progressive" I meant most culturally progressive, not most D. Bellefontaine Neighbors is where every single person is a Democrat, Columbia is where people ask for your pronouns when they meet you.

How much would the University of Missouri be affected by students not voting on campus this year?

Most college students aren't registered to vote at their college. The effect will be minimal.

Here is how Columbia, MO voted in 2016 from the "How did Division 1-A Football Cities Vote" thread:

Quote
University of Missouri (Columbia)Sad
Clinton - 31,694 - 56.17%
Trump - 20,072 - 35.57%

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.msg5854565#msg5854565
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2020, 09:01:17 PM »

By the Remington Research Group

Rowden won this district 51.22%-48.78% in 2016.
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Badger
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« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2020, 09:16:02 PM »


No, it's Columbia.

Rowden is the most vulnerable state senator by far. Not sure if the supermajority-break is reachable in the Senate, though. It is in the House.

Are you sure? See the adjacent Thread about polling in Senate District 15 where the Republican incumbent Koenig is down 4
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2020, 09:46:29 PM »

By RRG
October 20-22
489 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Undecided, presidential: 4%
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scooby
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« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2020, 11:01:31 PM »


No, it's Columbia.

Rowden is the most vulnerable state senator by far. Not sure if the supermajority-break is reachable in the Senate, though. It is in the House.

Are you sure? See the adjacent Thread about polling in Senate District 15 where the Republican incumbent Koenig is down 4

I would think they’re about equally vulnerable. SD-19 is more Democratic, but Rowden is a stronger incumbent than Koenig, who spearheaded the total abortion ban.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2020, 11:08:43 PM »


No, it's Columbia.

Rowden is the most vulnerable state senator by far. Not sure if the supermajority-break is reachable in the Senate, though. It is in the House.

Are you sure? See the adjacent Thread about polling in Senate District 15 where the Republican incumbent Koenig is down 4

I would think they’re about equally vulnerable. SD-19 is more Democratic, but Rowden is a stronger incumbent than Koenig, who spearheaded the total abortion ban.

Not even exceptions for legitimate rapes?
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