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October 24, 2020, 01:40:18 AM
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  Florida (Trafalgar): Trump +2
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Author Topic: Florida (Trafalgar): Trump +2  (Read 697 times)
Buzz
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« on: October 14, 2020, 10:49:44 AM »

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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2020, 10:50:47 AM »

With R+6 house effect, confirms FL is Lean Biden.
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darthpi
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« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2020, 10:52:30 AM »

Pollster that exists solely to find leads for Trump finds Trump in the lead.

Yawn.
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Umengus
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« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2020, 10:53:06 AM »

Pollster that exists solely to find leads for Trump finds Trump in the lead.

Yawn.

lol no. Some trafalgar polls show Biden in lead.
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Buzz
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« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2020, 10:54:08 AM »

Pollster that exists solely to find leads for Trump finds Trump in the lead.

Yawn.
False statement remains false. 
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2020, 10:55:13 AM »

Pollster that exists solely to find leads for Trump finds Trump in the lead.

Yawn.

lol no. Some trafalgar polls show Biden in lead.

Every single one of their polls basically adds 6 points to Trump based on feelings. Pick any state, go to the polling average, give six points to Trump and you get a Trafalger poll.
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darthpi
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« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2020, 10:55:56 AM »

Pollster that exists solely to find leads for Trump finds Trump in the lead.

Yawn.

lol no. Some trafalgar polls show Biden in lead.

Every single one of their polls basically adds 6 points to Trump based on feelings. Pick any state, go to the polling average, give six points to Trump and you get a Trafalger poll.

Precisely
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2020, 10:56:05 AM »

Good good. Biden +3 it is
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You Reap What You Sow
Rafe
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« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2020, 11:07:24 AM »

Trump surging just like his white blood cell count.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2020, 11:27:36 AM »

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Qu-33_lbge1B0e2q1viGRZzVQpQkFqSq/view

October 11-13
1051 likely voters
MoE: 2.94%
Changes with September 1-3 poll
Trends and margin (still Trump +2%) calculated pre-rounding

Trump 48% (n/c)
Biden 46% (+1)
Jorgensen 2% (n/c)
Someone else 1% (n/c from "Another Party Candidate" at 1%)
Hawkins 1% (not included in previous poll)
Undecided 2% (-1)

Re: FL's RMG poll, we again see a Trafalgar poll closely mirroring an RMG 'high Republican turnout' scenario:

FL, RMG Republican turnout, October 4-8: Trump 47, Biden 46
From October 8 to October 13, the 538 FL average shifted 0.1% to Trump.
FL, Trafalgar, October 11-13: Trump 48, Biden 46
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Beida
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« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2020, 11:30:21 AM »

Tossup remains tossup. This state was going to be a tossup even if Biden was leading nationally by double-digits.
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Forumlurker161
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« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2020, 11:57:33 AM »

This translates to Biden+1.
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Donald Trump’s Toupée
GOP_Represent
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« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2020, 12:01:11 PM »

Trumps mot +2 because muh feelings. Morons.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #13 on: October 14, 2020, 12:05:06 PM »


Trafalgar literally inflates Trump's % as part of their methodology let me remind you.
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Donald Trump’s Toupée
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« Reply #14 on: October 14, 2020, 12:08:49 PM »


Trafalgar literally inflates Trump's % as part of their methodology let me remind you.

lol says the contingent that believes Quinnipiac. Majority of this forum is a joke.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #15 on: October 14, 2020, 12:11:12 PM »


Trafalgar literally inflates Trump's % as part of their methodology let me remind you.

lol says the contingent that believes Quinnipiac. Majority of this forum is a joke.

Hey I think Q-Pac polls release some outliers results too. Any outlier you have to take with a grain of salt, but you can't try to start calling normal polls the outliers and polls favorable to your side the norm.
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Rafe
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« Reply #16 on: October 14, 2020, 12:18:07 PM »


Why don't you log out permanently, then? If you have the balls.
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AGA
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« Reply #17 on: October 14, 2020, 01:40:04 PM »

Kemp +12
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Single Issue Covid Voter
Forumlurker161
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« Reply #18 on: October 14, 2020, 02:07:01 PM »

No, Trafalgar is an R-leaning pollster. For the same reason, I subtract from Joe’s total in Ipsos and especially Q-pac polls.
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compucomp
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« Reply #19 on: October 14, 2020, 02:10:08 PM »


Why don't you log out permanently, then? If you have the balls.

Maybe he gets paid per post and needs the money.
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Hammy
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« Reply #20 on: October 14, 2020, 03:31:17 PM »


While Florida is one of the states they performed better in (compared to other polls at least), let's break this down:

2018 Gov: R+3 (50-47), final result was similarly a tie (49.6-49.2) for the sake of simplicity lets round it and say the R vote was spot on, they underpolled D's by two, that would make this a 48-48 tie.

2018 Senate: R+2 (49-47), final result was statistically 50-50 (0.11% margin) so they underpolled R's by 1, D's by 3. That would make this a 49-49 tie.

2016 Pres: R+4 (50-46), final result was 48.6-47.4, about a one point lead. Again, R's were overpolled (this time by about two points) and D's underpolled by one, which were that error to occur would give us D 47-46.

Further showing Florida is a pure tossup rather than a Trump trend.
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Southern Governor Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #21 on: October 14, 2020, 05:02:03 PM »

This is a good poll for Joe Biden.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #22 on: October 14, 2020, 09:59:24 PM »

New Poll: Florida President by Trafalgar Group on 2020-10-13

Summary: D: 46%, R: 48%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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