MT-MSU Bozeman: Bullock +2 | Rosendale +2 (user search)
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  MT-MSU Bozeman: Bullock +2 | Rosendale +2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: MT-MSU Bozeman: Bullock +2 | Rosendale +2  (Read 1874 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: October 14, 2020, 10:50:31 AM »

Looks like Trump/Tester/Gianforte #populists Purple heart finally decided that Kathleen Williams still isn’t #populist Purple heart enough for them. *feigns surprise*

But yes, that’s the MSU Bozeman mail-in poll (conducted Sept. 14 - Oct. 2, so it probably doesn’t reflect any last-minute "momentum", especially for Cooney and Williams). It’s an awful poll for Daines no matter how you slice it, however, especially since the topline is pretty much where I’m expecting the presidential race to end up. The only silver lining is that Trump's approval is a little lower than I’d expect and Bullock's approval a little higher than what I’ve seen in other polls.


This race was never out of contention.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2020, 11:13:22 AM »

Also, the "MT-SEN is Likely R because of polarization/presidential year/Daines is a strong incumbent unlike trash-tier candidate Rosendale" takes really, really, really didn’t age well. Who could have possibly seen it coming?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2020, 11:20:22 AM »

Sorry, fair point. What I merely meant to emphasize is that things looked better for Bullock than before. My bad.

Lol, no worries. A lot of the overreaction was based on two Emerson polls, both of which were outliers.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2020, 07:18:53 PM »

FWIW (probably not much because it’s just a hunch), this race to me feels like there will be a tiny fraction of the electorate (either undecided or more likely to name Bullock when asked about their voting preference by a pollster) who will reconsider voting out the incumbent and/or hesitate to vote for the Democrat who could tip the balance in the Senate when they actually fill out their ballot. There aren’t many of those voters (and I’m not sure if there’s enough of them for Daines to win), but I do think there will be some of them. Daines is not the kind of Republican who generates much enthusiasm, but I could see some Bullock Republicans switching at the last minute, for instance.

It’ll be a close race regardless of who wins, though.
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