MT-MSU Bozeman: Bullock +2 | Rosendale +2
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  MT-MSU Bozeman: Bullock +2 | Rosendale +2
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Author Topic: MT-MSU Bozeman: Bullock +2 | Rosendale +2  (Read 1068 times)
VARep
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« on: October 14, 2020, 10:16:09 AM »
« edited: October 14, 2020, 10:30:18 AM by lean d if fink says trumpism »

SEN
Bullock 49% (+3)
Daines 47% (+7)

House
Rosendale 48%
Williams 46%

https://www.ktvh.com/news/election-2020/msu-poll-bullock-rosendale-gianforte-leading-slightly-trump-up-by-7-in-mt
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2020, 10:17:10 AM »

Yep, tossup confirmed
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2020, 10:19:55 AM »

Finally polls!!!!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2020, 10:20:18 AM »

Bullock is loved by The People.

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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2020, 10:21:07 AM »

Mid-September to October 2
1615 likely voters
MoE: 3.9%
Changes with April 10-27

It's actually Daines +7% on his last poll if I'm not mistaken, although we don't have pre-rounding figures.

House
Undecided 6%
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2020, 10:21:45 AM »

If Democrats can only win one race this year in Montana, I pray it's the Senate race
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Western Democrat
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« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2020, 10:21:57 AM »

Yikes. Daines needs to start work on his next bipartisan bill ASAP.
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(Temporary) Florida Man Xing
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« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2020, 10:22:39 AM »
« Edited: October 14, 2020, 10:32:48 AM by Xing »

Didn't this poll find Tester up 9 in 2018? Still a Toss-Up, but I think Daines is slightly favored.

Edit: Looks like this is the one that showed him up 3, so it was pretty much right on the money. Looks like this is a real Toss-Up.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2020, 10:24:26 AM »

Didn't this poll find Tester up 9 in 2018? Still a Toss-Up, but I think Daines is slightly favored.

MSU Bozeman nailed it at Tester +3. MSU Billings was the one off at Tester +9. I can't see anywhere if this was from Bozeman or not
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Pollster
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« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2020, 10:25:14 AM »
« Edited: October 14, 2020, 10:29:38 AM by Pollster »

We should take a moment to acknowledge how rare it is, especially in the present times, to have a highly competitive federal election between two candidates with net approval in the double digits.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2020, 10:25:33 AM »

Didn't this poll find Tester up 9 in 2018? Still a Toss-Up, but I think Daines is slightly favored.

MSU Bozeman nailed it at Tester +3. MSU Billings was the one off at Tester +9. I can't see anywhere if this was from Bozeman or not

I have been comparing trends to the Bozeman one so it'd better be accurate, lol.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2020, 10:26:04 AM »

This race is back in contention!

Ngl I wish Cooney was doing better, I like the guy a good bit and I've liked him for Governor for a year now. But I like this.
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VARep
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« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2020, 10:28:49 AM »

Didn't this poll find Tester up 9 in 2018? Still a Toss-Up, but I think Daines is slightly favored.

MSU Bozeman nailed it at Tester +3. MSU Billings was the one off at Tester +9. I can't see anywhere if this was from Bozeman or not

This one is MSU Bozeman.
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Pollster
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« Reply #13 on: October 14, 2020, 10:29:01 AM »

Didn't this poll find Tester up 9 in 2018? Still a Toss-Up, but I think Daines is slightly favored.

MSU Bozeman nailed it at Tester +3. MSU Billings was the one off at Tester +9. I can't see anywhere if this was from Bozeman or not

This website seems to imply it's Bozeman.

Both polls more or less nailed Tester's final showing, by the way, so it's fair to say both were accurate.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #14 on: October 14, 2020, 10:30:17 AM »

If Bullock wins I will very pleased. If Cooney wins too I will be ecstatic.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #15 on: October 14, 2020, 10:31:10 AM »

If Bullock wins I will very pleased. If Cooney wins too I will be ecstatic.

I don't even dislike Daines that much relative to the average GOP Senator, but the current crop of elected MT Democrats are some of the very best in the country and raising their profiles in the national party will do a bit of good to it.
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redjohn
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« Reply #16 on: October 14, 2020, 10:33:21 AM »

Yes!!! I still think Bullock can pull it out here. Would make the Dem path to Senate control infinitely easier.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #17 on: October 14, 2020, 10:34:35 AM »

If Bullock wins I will very pleased. If Cooney wins too I will be ecstatic.

I don't even dislike Daines that much relative to the average GOP Senator, but the current crop of elected MT Democrats are some of the very best in the country and raising their profiles in the national party will do a bit of good to it.


Indeed. The Montana Dems are easily one of the best state parties we have with some of the best and brightest in liberal politics.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #18 on: October 14, 2020, 10:36:17 AM »

We should take a moment to acknowledge how rare it is, especially in the present times, to have a highly competitive federal election between two candidates with net approval in the double digits.

John James and Peters had that too in the Sienna poll btw.
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Western Democrat
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« Reply #19 on: October 14, 2020, 10:37:33 AM »

Prediction: MT will be the closest race on election night.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #20 on: October 14, 2020, 10:50:31 AM »

Looks like Trump/Tester/Gianforte #populists Purple heart finally decided that Kathleen Williams still isnít #populist Purple heart enough for them. *feigns surprise*

But yes, thatís the MSU Bozeman mail-in poll (conducted Sept. 14 - Oct. 2, so it probably doesnít reflect any last-minute "momentum", especially for Cooney and Williams). Itís an awful poll for Daines no matter how you slice it, however, especially since the topline is pretty much where Iím expecting the presidential race to end up. The only silver lining is that Trump's approval is a little lower than Iíd expect and Bullock's approval a little higher than what Iíve seen in other polls.


This race was never out of contention.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #21 on: October 14, 2020, 10:51:38 AM »
« Edited: October 14, 2020, 01:08:27 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

MSU Bozeman poll to be found here: https://helpslab.montana.edu/index.html

House
Other 1%

Senate
Other 1%  (-5 from "Someone else" at 6%)
Don't know 3% (-4)

Would not vote previously at 1%
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Brittain33
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« Reply #22 on: October 14, 2020, 11:09:46 AM »

We should take a moment to acknowledge how rare it is, especially in the present times, to have a highly competitive federal election between two candidates with net approval in the double digits.

John James and Peters had that too in the Sienna poll btw.

Doesnít count if Undecided / Never Heard is greater than 50%
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #23 on: October 14, 2020, 11:13:22 AM »

Also, the "MT-SEN is Likely R because of polarization/presidential year/Daines is a strong incumbent unlike trash-tier candidate Rosendale" takes really, really, really didnít age well. Who could have possibly seen it coming?
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #24 on: October 14, 2020, 11:17:36 AM »

Looks like Trump/Tester/Gianforte #populists Purple heart finally decided that Kathleen Williams still isnít #populist Purple heart enough for them. *feigns surprise*

But yes, thatís the MSU Bozeman mail-in poll (conducted Sept. 14 - Oct. 2, so it probably doesnít reflect any last-minute "momentum", especially for Cooney and Williams). Itís an awful poll for Daines no matter how you slice it, however, especially since the topline is pretty much where Iím expecting the presidential race to end up. The only silver lining is that Trump's approval is a little lower than Iíd expect and Bullock's approval a little higher than what Iíve seen in other polls.


This race was never out of contention.

Sorry, fair point. What I merely meant to emphasize is that things looked better for Bullock than before. My bad.
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