NC-Susquehanna (R): Biden +2

[redjohn]

It’s really hard to convince myself Trump has this state locked up when Rassy and Susquehanna can’t even find leads for him.

That's because he doesn't. He almost locked out.

Nah.  The state is going to be within a point either way.  Book it and quote me on it in 3 weeks

I agree. Neither candidate is really that favored in FL or NC in my opinion. The polls do show that the races are tossups, and we won't know who is favored until most of the votes are reporting in both states.

[redjohn]

It’s really hard to convince myself Trump has this state locked up when Rassy and Susquehanna can’t even find leads for him.

That's because he doesn't. He almost locked out.

Nah.  The state is going to be within a point either way.  Book it and quote me on it in 3 weeks

I agree. Neither candidate is really that favored in FL or NC in my opinion. The polls do show that the races are tossups, and we won't know who is favored until most of the votes are reporting in both states.

The polls don't show FL as a tossup, it's just that people (myself included) are distrustful of Democratic prospects in Florida for other reasons.

You're right. NC is strange though. Clinton led nearly all of the high-quality polls there and yet Trump won by 4. I'll believe it flipping when I see it.

She also concentrated a lot of her campaign on NC; they saw it as insurance for if OH+IA slipped through the cracks. Little did they know.

[redjohn]

It’s really hard to convince myself Trump has this state locked up when Rassy and Susquehanna can’t even find leads for him.

That's because he doesn't. He almost locked out.

Nah.  The state is going to be within a point either way.  Book it and quote me on it in 3 weeks

I agree. Neither candidate is really that favored in FL or NC in my opinion. The polls do show that the races are tossups, and we won't know who is favored until most of the votes are reporting in both states.

The polls don't show FL as a tossup, it's just that people (myself included) are distrustful of Democratic prospects in Florida for other reasons.

You're right. NC is strange though. Clinton led nearly all of the high-quality polls there and yet Trump won by 4. I'll believe it flipping when I see it.

She also concentrated a lot of her campaign on NC; they saw it as insurance for if OH+IA slipped through the cracks. Little did they know.

This is no more strange than WI flipping after not a single poll showed Trump ahead.

Agreed, but since then we've seen sweeping Democratic victories in WI and the state was polled far less than NC in 2016. Add in the high undecideds until the end, and it's surprising not shocking that Trump was able to win by just 1%.

[redjohn]

If Biden is up 2 in an NC internal, this race is over

That's pretty presumptuous. The race in NC is certainly not over because an R internal has Biden+2 with both candidates under 50%.