PA - RMG Research/PoliticsIQ: Biden +6

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Standard projection:
Biden 49%
Trump 43%
Jorgensen 1%
Other 1%
Not sure 6%

Strong Democratic turnout:
Biden 50%
Trump 42%
Jorgensen 1%
Other 1%
Not sure 6%

Strong Republican turnout:
Biden 47%
Trump 45%
Jorgensen 1%
Other 1%
Not sure 6%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

There's a rather interesting correlation (probably purely coincidental, but worth observing nonetheless) between Trafalgar polls and the "strong Republican turnout" model projections from RMG:

FL, Trafalgar, September 1-3: Trump 49, Biden 46
From September 3 to October 8, the 538 FL average shifted 0.9% more to Biden.
FL, RMG Republican turnout, October 4-8: Trump 47, Biden 46

NC, Trafalgar, September 9-11: Trump 48, Biden 46
From September 11 to October 11, the 538 NC average shifted 1.5% more to Biden.
NC, RMG Republican turnout, October 7-11: Trump 47, Biden 46

PA, RMG Republican turnout, October 7-12: Biden 47, Trump 45
PA, Trafalgar, October 10-12: Biden 47, Trump 45

I'll be keeping an eye on this trend as there's a slim chance it might give us some insight into the workings of Trafalgar's 'social desirability bias' weighting.