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October 24, 2020, 12:31:18 AM
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  PA - RMG Research/PoliticsIQ: Biden +6
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Author Topic: PA - RMG Research/PoliticsIQ: Biden +6  (Read 240 times)
Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds
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« on: October 14, 2020, 08:53:22 AM »

Oct 7-12, 800 LV

Biden 49%
Trump 43%
Other 2%
Not sure 6%

http://politicaliq.com/2020/10/14/pa-biden-49-trump-43/
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2020, 08:55:13 AM »

Standard projection:
Biden 49%
Trump 43%
Jorgensen 1%
Other 1%
Not sure 6%

Strong Democratic turnout:
Biden 50%
Trump 42%
Jorgensen 1%
Other 1%
Not sure 6%

Strong Republican turnout:
Biden 47%
Trump 45%
Jorgensen 1%
Other 1%
Not sure 6%
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Buzz
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« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2020, 08:56:14 AM »

Pennsylvania is long gone.  Unpopular take, but Trump has a better change in MI than PA
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The scissors of false economy
Nathan
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« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2020, 09:04:10 AM »
« Edited: October 14, 2020, 09:15:18 AM by The scissors of false economy »

Pennsylvania is long gone.  Unpopular take, but Trump has a better change in MI than PA

I agree. In theory Trump ought to have somewhat more of a path in Pennsylvania than in Michigan, but if a middling pollster can't get him to a plurality even in a scenario that explicitly assumes an enthusiasm/turnout gap in his favor, the state has slipped away from him.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2020, 09:09:05 AM »

There's a rather interesting correlation (probably purely coincidental, but worth observing nonetheless) between Trafalgar polls and the "strong Republican turnout" model projections from RMG:

FL, Trafalgar, September 1-3: Trump 49, Biden 46
From September 3 to October 8, the 538 FL average shifted 0.9% more to Biden.
FL, RMG Republican turnout, October 4-8: Trump 47, Biden 46

NC, Trafalgar, September 9-11: Trump 48, Biden 46
From September 11 to October 11, the 538 NC average shifted 1.5% more to Biden.
NC, RMG Republican turnout, October 7-11: Trump 47, Biden 46

PA, RMG Republican turnout, October 7-12: Biden 47, Trump 45
PA, Trafalgar, October 10-12: Biden 47, Trump 45

I'll be keeping an eye on this trend as there's a slim chance it might give us some insight into the workings of Trafalgar's 'social desirability bias' weighting.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2020, 03:46:58 PM »

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by RMG Research on 2020-10-12

Summary: D: 49%, R: 43%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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