North Carolina (NYT/Siena): Biden +4
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  North Carolina (NYT/Siena): Biden +4
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Author Topic: North Carolina (NYT/Siena): Biden +4  (Read 1721 times)
WD
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #25 on: October 14, 2020, 12:27:09 PM »

Nate has decided to give his reasoning for not pushing undecideds:



Is this guy for real?
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #26 on: October 14, 2020, 12:27:37 PM »

Anyone have the crosstabs?
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VAR
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« Reply #27 on: October 14, 2020, 12:28:01 PM »


https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/nc100920-crosstabs/3bf558d7ca17e9de/full.pdf
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #28 on: October 14, 2020, 12:30:31 PM »

0% of Republicans however are undecided. All Democrats and Independents for the remaining undecideds.

Well that certainly doesn't bode well for Trump then
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #29 on: October 14, 2020, 12:34:09 PM »

Is Cohn seriously arguing that voters don't know who Trump and Biden are?
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #30 on: October 14, 2020, 12:38:23 PM »

They have a +6 Trump 2016 sample size, even though he won the state by 3 points.

Biden may be leading by more than 4.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #31 on: October 14, 2020, 12:41:58 PM »

Nate has decided to give his reasoning for not pushing undecideds:



Ah yes how can we expect the public to have their minds made up about such unknown figures like President Donald Trump and Former Vice President Joe Biden
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #32 on: October 14, 2020, 12:42:05 PM »

They have a +6 Trump 2016 sample size, even though he won the state by 3 points.

Biden may be leading by more than 4.

I don't understand why, but nearly every NYT/Siena poll has had Trump 2016 sample higher than what it really was and the GOP party ID edge, even in states where Ds have a clear party ID edge
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
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« Reply #33 on: October 14, 2020, 12:42:36 PM »
« Edited: October 14, 2020, 01:20:57 PM by The scissors of false economy »

Is Cohn seriously arguing that voters don't know who Trump and Biden are?

Believers in democratic self-rule: We should have faith that, absent unprecedented voter suppression or some sort of coup by the outgoing administration, the voting public that looks set to repudiate this disastrous administration will, in fact, repudiate this disastrous administration.

The pundit/political-pop-scientist/NYT editorialist caste, plus various doomers on talkelections dot org slash FORUM:


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kwabbit
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« Reply #34 on: October 14, 2020, 12:50:29 PM »

They have a +6 Trump 2016 sample size, even though he won the state by 3 points.

Biden may be leading by more than 4.

Does no one know realize that recalled vote is always going to seem to oversample the previous winner? For whatever reason, people are not good at recalling their vote. People who did not vote will say they did vote, mostly for the previous winner, Trump, and some who voted for Clinton will say they voted for Trump. It sounds absurd that someone wouldn't remember who they voted for, but this is a phenomenon that is present in basically all polls that ask for recalled vote.

Given that Trump won by about 4 in NC, you would expect about a +6 or +7 on recalled vote. NYT/Siena, perhaps the best pollster in the business, has not been oversampling Trump voters on literally every poll because the recalled vote is more favorable than the 2016 result. They have the actual vote history of their respondents!
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #35 on: October 14, 2020, 12:51:01 PM »

This is a junk poll, to be honest.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #36 on: October 14, 2020, 12:58:33 PM »

They have a +6 Trump 2016 sample size, even though he won the state by 3 points.

Biden may be leading by more than 4.

I don't understand why, but nearly every NYT/Siena poll has had Trump 2016 sample higher than what it really was and the GOP party ID edge, even in states where Ds have a clear party ID edge

Because recalled vote, if sampled correctly, will always overestimate the previous winner by about 3 points of margin. People are straight up bad at recalling their vote, but over a large sample they do so in a predictable way.

From what Cohn says, this is because Trump-leaning independents have begun identifying as Republicans. If the previous composition of the electorate was 35D/35I/30R, now it's closer to 35D/30I/35R. The independents have just shifted over. This is why Trump is getting crushed even more among independents than would be expected.
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VAR
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« Reply #37 on: October 14, 2020, 01:04:11 PM »

Time to unskew NYTimes/Siena polls based on 2016 vote:

NC: Biden +6
MI: Biden +7
WI: Biden +10
OH: Biden +2
NV: Biden +6
AZ: Biden +10
PA: Biden +6
FL: Biden +3
PA: Biden +6
NE-02: Biden +10
GA: Trump +1
IA: Trump +1
TX: Trump +7

Makes a lot of sense, folks! TX 17 points to the right of AZ!
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #38 on: October 14, 2020, 10:07:08 PM »

New Poll: North Carolina President by Siena Research Institute on 2020-10-13

Summary: D: 46%, R: 42%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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