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October 24, 2020, 12:39:26 AM
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  MI: EPIC/MRA: Biden +9
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Author Topic: MI: EPIC/MRA: Biden +9  (Read 535 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 14, 2020, 06:32:30 AM »

New Poll: Michigan President by EPIC/MRA on 2020-10-12

Summary: D: 48%, R: 39%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Horus
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« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2020, 06:34:17 AM »

There's no excuse to have this many undecideds with under 3 weeks to go. Nice for Biden I guess, but this looks way too much like a 2016 poll.
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Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds
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« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2020, 06:38:25 AM »

Favorabilities:
Trump: 41/55 (-14)
Biden: 51/44 (+7)
Pence: 42/48 (-6)
Harris: 47/40 (+7)
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Southern Governor Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2020, 06:38:40 AM »

There's no excuse to have this many undecideds with under 3 weeks to go. Nice for Biden I guess, but this looks way too much like a 2016 poll.
I agree this poll would be better if it had less undecideds. I wonder though if the poll methodology had some unique features that resulted in that and this poll is unique, unusual, etc in its results because of this.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2020, 06:39:48 AM »

There's no excuse to have this many undecideds with under 3 weeks to go. Nice for Biden I guess, but this looks way too much like a 2016 poll.

This. There's no excuse to have this many undecideds 20 days to go.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2020, 06:40:04 AM »

Favorabilities:
Trump: 41/55 (-14)
Biden: 51/44 (+7)
Pence: 42/48 (-6)
Harris: 47/40 (+7)

Hm, they should send Harris to Michigan. She seems to be very popular there.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2020, 06:40:10 AM »

October 8-12
600 likely voters
MoE: 4%
Changes with September 10-15

Biden 48% (n/c)
Trump 39% (-1)
Third party candidate 4% (-1)
Undecided/Refused 9% (+2)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2020, 06:40:44 AM »

There's no excuse to have this many undecideds with under 3 weeks to go. Nice for Biden I guess, but this looks way too much like a 2016 poll.

Explanation:

Quote
Independents are wildly unsettled: This poll groups Democratic-leaning independents and Republican-leaning independents with those parties, since they tend to vote with them consistently, leaving only about 11% true nonpartisan independents.

But that group appeared unsettled in this poll, favoring Trump 30%-21% but with a huge number, 49%, either backing a third party candidate (15%) or undecided (34%). That's not great news for either candidate since both are well known.

But EPIC-MRA's pollster, Bernie Porn, said doling them out based on which candidates they graded more favorably, it looks as though if they were to choose, each candidate could win about 2 percentage points more.

Also, as with the previous entry, any time a sample size is smaller than the overall sample, the margin of error would be higher. It should be noted, however, that if this group, or any group with high undecideds, broke heavily for one candidate or another, it could be a game changer.
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Zanas
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« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2020, 07:23:03 AM »


Quote
But EPIC-MRA's pollster, Bernie Porn
Wait a minute. The guy's name is BERNIE PORN??? And it's the first time I've heard of him?
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The scissors of false economy
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« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2020, 07:24:32 AM »
« Edited: October 14, 2020, 07:36:32 AM by The scissors of false economy »


Quote
But EPIC-MRA's pollster, Bernie Porn
Wait a minute. The guy's name is BERNIE PORN??? And it's the first time I've heard of him?

Bernie Porn the Epic MRA. Yes.

Favorabilities:
Trump: 41/55 (-14)
Biden: 51/44 (+7)
Pence: 42/48 (-6)
Harris: 47/40 (+7)

Hm, they should send Harris to Michigan. She seems to be very popular there.

I don't think this follows. If we're going to be concerned about Biden being below 50 in the topline, a fortiori it doesn't follow that Harris is "very popular" if her favorability is only at 47.

Personally, I'm not terribly concerned about Biden being at 48 in this poll because even if you give Trump every undecided it still only gets to 48-48. If you have undecideds break 3:2 for Trump it gives you about 51-45. That's a little tighter than a few other of these Rust Belt polls, but far from unbelievable as a final result. This is also only one poll, and Biden is at or above 50 in several others.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2020, 09:23:03 AM »


Quote
But EPIC-MRA's pollster, Bernie Porn
Wait a minute. The guy's name is BERNIE PORN??? And it's the first time I've heard of him?

Bernie Porn the Epic MRA. Yes.

Favorabilities:
Trump: 41/55 (-14)
Biden: 51/44 (+7)
Pence: 42/48 (-6)
Harris: 47/40 (+7)

Hm, they should send Harris to Michigan. She seems to be very popular there.

I don't think this follows. If we're going to be concerned about Biden being below 50 in the topline, a fortiori it doesn't follow that Harris is "very popular" if her favorability is only at 47.

Personally, I'm not terribly concerned about Biden being at 48 in this poll because even if you give Trump every undecided it still only gets to 48-48. If you have undecideds break 3:2 for Trump it gives you about 51-45. That's a little tighter than a few other of these Rust Belt polls, but far from unbelievable as a final result. This is also only one poll, and Biden is at or above 50 in several others.

Harris has a +7 net favorability. For someone who has not been on the national stage for that long and easily could've been defined, that is indeed very good.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2020, 09:55:33 AM »

Favorabilities:
Trump: 41/55 (-14)
Biden: 51/44 (+7)
Pence: 42/48 (-6)
Harris: 47/40 (+7)

THIS certainly looks nothing like a 2016 poll.
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darthpi
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« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2020, 10:54:07 AM »


Quote
But EPIC-MRA's pollster, Bernie Porn
Wait a minute. The guy's name is BERNIE PORN??? And it's the first time I've heard of him?

The best part of this website is every time there is an EPIC/MRA poll we get to watch more people learn this fact.
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