Trump Any Other Year?

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Donald Trump teased a presidential run in 1988 - what if he ran then? Or, what if he had run in subsequent elections?

Which election, from 1988 to 2012, would he have done best in, assuming he ran in the primaries for whichever party he was a member of at the time? Which year would he have the best shot at winning the nomination?

And, for the sake of this hypothetical, let's pretend he was a Republican in the year 2000.

[Alben Barkley]

He might have already been able to win the GOP nomination in 2012. IIRC, some polls suggested he could. He would have been crushed by Obama, however.

Don’t think he could have won in any year before that, though.

[Snazzrazz Mazzlejazz]

He wouldn't have won but if he ran in 2000 it'd be interesting to see how that would have impacted the race. He likely wouldn't have had the impact that Perot did but his presence may have flipped the race somehow.

[Adjective-Statement]

The earliest I could see Trump winning the nomination is in 2012 for the Republicans. Given some miracle, though:

Vice President George Bush (R-TX) / Senator Dan Quayle (R-IN) ✓
Businessman Donald Trump (D-NY) / Senator Joe Biden (D-DE)

While Trump was a Republican in 1988, he had no way of winning a primary against a popular sitting vice president as an outsider. The Democratic Party was still chaotic and he would have a 1% chance to run away with the nomination if he played his cards right.

[Alben Barkley]

The earliest I could see Trump winning the nomination is in 2012 for the Republicans. Given some miracle, though:

Vice President George Bush (R-TX) / Senator Dan Quayle (R-IN) ✓
Businessman Donald Trump (D-NY) / Senator Joe Biden (D-DE)

While Trump was a Republican in 1988, he had no way of winning a primary against a popular sitting vice president as an outsider. The Democratic Party was still chaotic and he would have a 1% chance to run away with the nomination if he played his cards right.

If he’s running as a Democrat, what about 2004 vs. W? I highly doubt he could have won the Democratic nomination, but W may have been more vulnerable that year than HW was in 1988 so he might have had a better chance of winning if he did. Still probably doesn’t though.

[Adjective-Statement]

The earliest I could see Trump winning the nomination is in 2012 for the Republicans. Given some miracle, though:

Vice President George Bush (R-TX) / Senator Dan Quayle (R-IN) ✓
Businessman Donald Trump (D-NY) / Senator Joe Biden (D-DE)

While Trump was a Republican in 1988, he had no way of winning a primary against a popular sitting vice president as an outsider. The Democratic Party was still chaotic and he would have a 1% chance to run away with the nomination if he played his cards right.

If he’s running as a Democrat, what about 2004 vs. W? I highly doubt he could have won the Democratic nomination, but W may have been more vulnerable that year than HW was in 1988 so he might have had a better chance of winning if he did. Still probably doesn’t though.

I know we've had a few threads on that. I don't know if a protectionist platform would be enough to flip Ohio from the Jesusland map since the Rust Belters' situation wasn't as dire as it is in the post-Great Recession world. IIRC Bush's win in Ohio was due to the gay marriage debate, and I can see the religious right smearing him as a hedonist. Nor does he win on the foreign policy side, as Iraq was still somewhat popular in 2004. Better than a 1988 run but still not a victory.

President George Bush (R-TX) / Vice President Dick Cheney (R-WY) ✓
Businessman Donald Trump (D-NY) / Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN)

People forget, the immediate post-9/11 years were springtime for Reagan's America. Not a good time to be a populist or a progressive or an outsider in general.