TX-22 - GBAO (D): Biden +9
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  TX-22 - GBAO (D): Biden +9
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Author Topic: TX-22 - GBAO (D): Biden +9  (Read 4079 times)
Gass3268
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« on: October 13, 2020, 08:31:23 PM »

Biden 52%
Trump 43%

Source
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Horus
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« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2020, 08:32:12 PM »

Trump 52-44 in 2016
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2020, 08:33:06 PM »

https://drive.google.com/file/d/12bs1zZMRnd0xl3f6HjH5DsxKUnv2lsNZ/view

July 29 - August 2
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Biden 51%
Trump 39%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1A1__Z3HBSrGvWpZM94bm6pJ15NC9_46N/view

September 24-27
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Biden 50% (-1)
Trump 44% (+5)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/19N7kILH7yQKwyJHWPCljORTMsrLKe-OT/view

October 8-11
500 likely voters
MoE 4.4%

Biden 52% (+2)
Trump 43% (-1)
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2020, 08:34:25 PM »

Houston’s a-changing. Average this out with the TX-10 to about Biden +5 in both districts and it’s where I’d guess
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The Mikado
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« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2020, 08:38:07 PM »

This House seat was represented by Tom DeLay until 2006. Sugarland was one of the biggest right-wing strongholds in the entire country.
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Sbane
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« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2020, 10:40:04 PM »

The Houston area is also more likely to stick with Trump than other urban areas in Texas due to the presence of the oil & gas industry. This is not a good poll for Trump.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2020, 10:41:38 PM »

The Houston area is also more likely to stick with Trump than other urban areas in Texas due to the presence of the oil & gas industry. This is not a good poll for Trump.

The economy here has kind of diversified a lot lately in the past decade. To the point where 10 years from now oil and gas is likely to be 20% of the economy. IT/Tech is trying hard to get inside Houston.
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Devils30
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2020, 11:17:01 PM »

Biden wins Texas if this result is really true
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Beet
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« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2020, 12:20:34 AM »


Yeah, this is actually a horrible poll for Biden.
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Horus
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« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2020, 01:37:38 AM »


Yeah, this is actually a horrible poll for Biden.

Honestly it might be the worst he's had since the debate. Numbers like this and he's on track for a major loss.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2020, 02:19:32 AM »


Yeah, this is actually a horrible poll for Biden.

Sarcasm?
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WD
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« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2020, 02:40:51 AM »


I can’t tell with these people sometimes.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2020, 03:12:44 AM »
« Edited: October 14, 2020, 03:36:33 AM by NOVA Green »

The Houston area is also more likely to stick with Trump than other urban areas in Texas due to the presence of the oil & gas industry. This is not a good poll for Trump.

The economy here has kind of diversified a lot lately in the past decade. To the point where 10 years from now oil and gas is likely to be 20% of the economy. IT/Tech is trying hard to get inside Houston.

When I lived in Houston in the early to mid 2010s, I worked in the Tech Sector (Although not in CD-22), and was actually pretty surprised at how diversified the economy was, compared to some of my pre-existing perceptions of the Metro Area.

In terms of CD-22, I seem to recall doing a bit of a look-around at Sugarland on the 2016 "Super-Wealthy Towns which Swung Against Trump thread", so was able to locate a post that I made back on 2/27/17:

"#18 Wealthiest in Metro- Sugar Land- MHI $ 104.7k/Yr- Pop 80.8k

(45% White, 35% Asian, 10% Latino, 8 % African-American)
(14% Indian-Americans, 10% Chinese-Americans, 3% Pakistani-Americans, 2% Vietnamese-Americans)

Occupations: 16% Management, 13% Sales, 13% Admin, 8% Business, 7% Education, 6% Health Care, 6% Engineering, 6% Computers & Math)

Relative Occupations: Highest variance with engineering, computers & Math, and Science

2012: (38.3 D- 61.1 R)    +22.8% R
2016: (46.9 D- 46.8 R)    +0.1% D       (+22.9% Dem Swing)

Not a good sign at all for Texas Republicans in 2020.... note that Sugar Land actually had a significantly lower margin for Clinton than Fort Bend County at large.....
[/i]"

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.msg5545629#msg5545629

Anecdotally, we really enjoyed going to Sugar lands, to shop at the Ranch Market, which was our favorite Asian-American Grocery Store before we moved from California to Texas.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99_Ranch_Market

I digress...

CD-22 is 17.6% Asian-American, of whom roughly 35% are of Indian Ancestry, 20% Chinese Ancestry, and 16% Vietnamese Ancestry, as well as also relatively large Filipino and Pakistani populations.

Like many parts of Metro H-Town, it also has a decent sixed population of Brothers & Sisters, with about 14% African-American.

Hit Stafford-Missouri City County Census Sub-Division Map, you are running at 46% Black, but still there is a decent sized community of 14% of the Alvin-Pearland Sub-Division Map (!!!), 14.7% in the Rosenberg-Richomnd Sub-Division Map (!!!).

Sugarland is 16% Black.

Latino Voters can be fickle compared to demographics in Tejas, depending upon place, but 42% in Rosenberg-Richmond is nothing to sneeze at, not to mention 18% Latino in Sugarland (!!!).

I should just stop while I am ahead, but let me close with one brief comment and thought.

1.) We have seen historically patterns where entire Metro Areas start to shift dramatically almost overnight.

     A.) Exhibit A---- 1988 General Election (Seattle, Portland, Bay Area Norcal).
          By 2016 the Republican Party has been virtually wiped out, and in certain places in 2018,
          brooms swept out some of the last few remaining OR State-House and State-Senate PUB
          representing the Exurban areas.

     B.) Exhibit B--- SoCal. Bush Senior held his own allowing him to hold the State solidly against
          Dukakis back in '88.

          Meanwhile you got this guy called Pete Wilson, who has the hookups from his associations with
         folks like Goldwater, Nixon, etc...

          Shat hit the fan with demobilization after the end of Cold War, where SoCal had been
          Universally gifted, with lavish Defense Industry Conducts that basically all came to an end.

         Gov. Pete Wilson pushed for Prop 187 (essentially a precursor for the AZ "paper please laws).

         1992: Rodney King---   As a Gen-Exer, this perhaps might be more like a "George Floyd
         Moment for much of our generation".

         Still--- needless to say SoCal started to shift harder in certain places, and slower in others, but
         damn Metro areas of certain sizes, eventually a glacier becomes a juggernaut, and there is no
         hope, and no future left, without an extreme revision of the National Brand.



        C.) Metro Denver / Metro DC (VA/MD/DC) in the '00s

        D.) Metro Columbus / Metro Philly / Metro Chicago

So basically, where I'm going with all this is that Metro Houston is flipping hard, it's flipping fast, and once it flips, there is no going back jack!



 


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Sbane
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« Reply #13 on: October 14, 2020, 03:28:19 AM »

The Houston area is also more likely to stick with Trump than other urban areas in Texas due to the presence of the oil & gas industry. This is not a good poll for Trump.

The economy here has kind of diversified a lot lately in the past decade. To the point where 10 years from now oil and gas is likely to be 20% of the economy. IT/Tech is trying hard to get inside Houston.

Absolutely, but that industry is more important to the Houston area than places like Austin or Dallas.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #14 on: October 14, 2020, 05:10:19 AM »

The Houston area is also more likely to stick with Trump than other urban areas in Texas due to the presence of the oil & gas industry. This is not a good poll for Trump.

The economy here has kind of diversified a lot lately in the past decade. To the point where 10 years from now oil and gas is likely to be 20% of the economy. IT/Tech is trying hard to get inside Houston.

Absolutely, but that industry is more important to the Houston area than places like Austin or Dallas.

Absolutely agree---

Still, depression in the Oil Patch in '88 benefited Dukakis over Bush in places like LA, OK, and TX.

Maybe some of it was Lloyd Bentsen being Dukakis' VP and kicking Quayle's arse in the '88 VP debate.

Part of the problem with Republican appeal to Energy Sector Workers in TX, is that simply we are not talking about an overwhelmingly Anglo Population, and that workers in both the off-shore Rigs, Inland Oil Refineries , and even the Truckers and workers in the Eagle Ford Shale region of TX are increasingly (and quite likely are overwhelmingly Black & Brown.

Additionally, even in many of the Higher Compensation levels of the Union Refinery jobs, the demographics have not only shifted significantly, but additionally have almost paradoxically created a "perfect storm" for Republican performance among Mexican-Americans, Tejanos, and various other Migras, when the Republicans in the US-SEN backed down on immigration reform, to the point where Romney is almost pleading that "Immigrants are peoples my friend".

Still, only so far you can roll with TX Crude, but still Metro H-Town has some of the best when it comes to Oil Extraction Technologies with minimal Carbon Footprint.

It's really fascinating since after the major first wave of the new Exxon-Mobile Corp HQ in The Woodlands, it started to swing HARD-DEM.

Haven't run all of the numbers on The Woodlands, but damn swings in Montgomery County, will likely come disproportionately from places like this, basically 30-40 min drive down the road max....

Still TX-22 is much less dependent upon Petro jobs, than many other parts of Metro H-Town.

IMHO--- maybe I'm wrong...
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woodley park
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« Reply #15 on: October 14, 2020, 05:44:06 AM »


Yeah, this is actually a horrible poll for Biden.

Why? He’s reversed Trump’s 2016 numbers in a conservative bastion. Back up your analysis or tag your sarcasm.
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Beet
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« Reply #16 on: October 14, 2020, 06:38:00 AM »


Yeah, this is actually a horrible poll for Biden.

Why? He’s reversed Trump’s 2016 numbers in a conservative bastion. Back up your analysis or tag your sarcasm.

I read it as 52-44 Clinton. I suppose it's a good poll for him then.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #17 on: October 14, 2020, 07:24:29 AM »


Yeah, this is actually a horrible poll for Biden.

Why? He’s reversed Trump’s 2016 numbers in a conservative bastion. Back up your analysis or tag your sarcasm.

I read it as 52-44 Clinton. I suppose it's a good poll for him then.

That’s not an understatement at all. It’s only a 17-point swing, no biggie
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Sbane
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« Reply #18 on: October 14, 2020, 09:51:30 PM »

The Houston area is also more likely to stick with Trump than other urban areas in Texas due to the presence of the oil & gas industry. This is not a good poll for Trump.

The economy here has kind of diversified a lot lately in the past decade. To the point where 10 years from now oil and gas is likely to be 20% of the economy. IT/Tech is trying hard to get inside Houston.

Absolutely, but that industry is more important to the Houston area than places like Austin or Dallas.

Absolutely agree---

Still, depression in the Oil Patch in '88 benefited Dukakis over Bush in places like LA, OK, and TX.

Maybe some of it was Lloyd Bentsen being Dukakis' VP and kicking Quayle's arse in the '88 VP debate.

Part of the problem with Republican appeal to Energy Sector Workers in TX, is that simply we are not talking about an overwhelmingly Anglo Population, and that workers in both the off-shore Rigs, Inland Oil Refineries , and even the Truckers and workers in the Eagle Ford Shale region of TX are increasingly (and quite likely are overwhelmingly Black & Brown.

Additionally, even in many of the Higher Compensation levels of the Union Refinery jobs, the demographics have not only shifted significantly, but additionally have almost paradoxically created a "perfect storm" for Republican performance among Mexican-Americans, Tejanos, and various other Migras, when the Republicans in the US-SEN backed down on immigration reform, to the point where Romney is almost pleading that "Immigrants are peoples my friend".

Still, only so far you can roll with TX Crude, but still Metro H-Town has some of the best when it comes to Oil Extraction Technologies with minimal Carbon Footprint.

It's really fascinating since after the major first wave of the new Exxon-Mobile Corp HQ in The Woodlands, it started to swing HARD-DEM.

Haven't run all of the numbers on The Woodlands, but damn swings in Montgomery County, will likely come disproportionately from places like this, basically 30-40 min drive down the road max....

Still TX-22 is much less dependent upon Petro jobs, than many other parts of Metro H-Town.

IMHO--- maybe I'm wrong...

I'm in Odessa and I would say a majority of Oil & Gas workers are non-white, much like the city itself. I would assume its similar in Houston and certainly in the Eagle Ford shale area. Many do vote Republican, especially here, but aren't necessarily the biggest fans of Trump either. The biggest attack ads in this area and in adjoining NM-02 are regarding the green new deal and how all the Democrats are linked to AOC who wants to shut down all Oil & Gas production in NM and TX.
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Biden his time
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« Reply #19 on: July 29, 2021, 10:22:26 PM »

Actual result:

50% Trump - 49% Biden

A large reason for Trump's victory in Texas is the Houston metro area being more Republican than one might expect based on demographics, and shifting relatively slowly.

O'Rourke did better here in 2018 than Biden did in 2020 (as opposed to the DFW suburbs, which have continued marching left).
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« Reply #20 on: July 30, 2021, 01:00:25 AM »

Actual result:

50% Trump - 49% Biden

A large reason for Trump's victory in Texas is the Houston metro area being more Republican than one might expect based on demographics, and shifting relatively slowly.

O'Rourke did better here in 2018 than Biden did in 2020 (as opposed to the DFW suburbs, which have continued marching left).

I still think he would’ve won Texas if Metro Houston had shifted as much as DFW.
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