Iranian Presidential Election-June 18, 2021

[NewYorkExpress]

It's a little early to talk about the Presidential Elections in Iran (which probably won't be free and fair anyways).

Articles are floating around about just who may be "allowed" to run.

https://gulfnews.com/opinion/op-eds/irans-next-president-may-be-a-military-man-1.74533442

The one linked to suggests that the most likely candidates will be ex-Iranian Revolutionary Guards personnel.

[PSOL]

The president will be the one who most kisses the @$$ of Khamenei, and will thus probably be the least rigged election since 2005 when one takes into account that the reformist camp is dead and their voter base completely tuned out. So the 30% or so of hardcore Hezbollahis (Religious nutters), Bazaaris (“traditional“ Merchants), security force families (standard military, IRCG, Basij), and public workers and students outside forced to vote by the state will decide the election

No one really cares about this election, but it does signify the death of the regime in actually caring about public input. So the goal of Khomeini in producing an Islamic state instead of a Republic comes near.

[CumbrianLefty]

So actually an "electoral type event" then?

[NewYorkExpress]

So actually an "electoral type event" then?

Yes and no.

It is in the sense that certain people (mostly reformists, anyone the Aytollah doesn't support) won't be allowed to run, but the election itself might well be free and fair (or as free and fair as you can get in the Middle East, anyways.)

[Octowakandi]

The possibility of an IRGC President and then just Raisi as Supreme Leader would be interesting and an even harder turn right for Iran. But it makes sense as the clergy and the IRGC need each other more than ever. I'm still shocked Khamanei is alive though. That man is like their Jimmy Carter in terms of sheer longevity.

[Samof94]

The possibility of an IRGC President and then just Raisi as Supreme Leader would be interesting and an even harder turn right for Iran. But it makes sense as the clergy and the IRGC need each other more than ever. I'm still shocked Khamanei is alive though. That man is like their Jimmy Carter in terms of sheer longevity.

Who will replace him???  I imagine another hardliner will replace him. Remember the original Ayatollah almost appointed a different guy to be his successor, who was more moderate.

[NewYorkExpress]

The possibility of an IRGC President and then just Raisi as Supreme Leader would be interesting and an even harder turn right for Iran. But it makes sense as the clergy and the IRGC need each other more than ever. I'm still shocked Khamanei is alive though. That man is like their Jimmy Carter in terms of sheer longevity.

Who will replace him???  I imagine another hardliner will replace him. Remember the original Ayatollah almost appointed a different guy to be his successor, who was more moderate.

I would think another hardliner too. I also think his successor will be (relatively) young.

My gut feeling right now as to who Khameni's successor will be is Sadeq Larijani (the former Chief Justice of Iran) or Ebrahim Raisi (the current Chief Justice of Iran), but we really don't know.

[Samof94]

The possibility of an IRGC President and then just Raisi as Supreme Leader would be interesting and an even harder turn right for Iran. But it makes sense as the clergy and the IRGC need each other more than ever. I'm still shocked Khamanei is alive though. That man is like their Jimmy Carter in terms of sheer longevity.

Who will replace him???  I imagine another hardliner will replace him. Remember the original Ayatollah almost appointed a different guy to be his successor, who was more moderate.

I would think another hardliner too. I also think his successor will be (relatively) young.

My gut feeling right now as to who Khameni's successor will be is Sadeq Larijani (the former Chief Justice of Iran) or Ebrahim Raisi (the current Chief Justice of Iran), but we really don't know.

Khameini was appointed himself when rather young.

[Kingpoleon]

Mohsen Rafsanjani and Ali Motahhari are the most likely reformist candidates allowed to run. The Foreign Minister might have been allowed to run, but he seems really unwilling to do so.

[PSOL]

Mohsen Rafsanjani and Ali Motahhari are the most likely reformist candidates allowed to run. The Foreign Minister might have been allowed to run, but he seems really unwilling to do so.

Zarif doesn’t want to deal with that s••• job

[Kingpoleon]

Zarif doesn’t want to deal with that s••• job

Zarif might try to finagle his way to staying in power even if the reformists lose. He’s one of the best politicians in the country, and Soleimani was a big rival of his in Iran.

[NewYorkExpress]

Mohsen Rafsanjani and Ali Motahhari are the most likely reformist candidates allowed to run. The Foreign Minister might have been allowed to run, but he seems really unwilling to do so.

I don't think any members of the reform camp will be allowed to run this time.

I think the choice might come down to having a military President, or having a cleric like Raisi as President (remember, Khameni was President of Iran before become Ayatollah)

[urutzizu]

Final list of candidates approved:

https://mobile.twitter.com/khabaronlinee/status/1397124444901023744

Disqualified:
Larijani (moderate conservative seen as perhaps having a chance against Raisi)
Vice President Jahangiri
Ahmadinejad (now a populist with slight regime criticism)

All possible Reformists/Moderates barred. Establishment taking no chances. Hard to see how it is not Raisi now.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Wow, Ahmadinejad was banned.  He was the runaway favorite if he'd been allowed to compete.

At least this way, we may avoid Supreme Leader Raisi.

[PSOL]

Wow, Ahmadinejad was banned.  He was the runaway favorite if he'd been allowed to compete.

At least this way, we may avoid Supreme Leader Raisi.

It’s either Raisi or Khamenei’s son.

[H. Ross Peron]

Does anyone know why the standard for Iranian politicians seems to be a Western suit but without a tie?

[NewYorkExpress]

Wow, Ahmadinejad was banned.  He was the runaway favorite if he'd been allowed to compete.

At least this way, we may avoid Supreme Leader Raisi.

Don't be too sure of that. Khameni was President before he became Supreme Leader, so the precedent is there...

[Former President tack50]

I know it is Iran, but is there any reason why literally the sitting VP as well as a former president in Ahmadineyad were barred from the election? (I mean the officially stated reason, not the real one which we know is that they aren't 100% telling the official line from the Supreme Leader)

[omar04]

Wow, Ahmadinejad was banned.  He was the runaway favorite if he'd been allowed to compete.

At least this way, we may avoid Supreme Leader Raisi.

He wasn't very likely to be approved although he can technically run since he wasn't president before the elections (there is a consecutive two term limit so he was eligible to run again). Ahmadinejad is just trying to reinvent himself as an open critic of the establishment by getting himself disqualified because he thinks he would be well positioned after Khamenei's death. Raeisi running for President is not really a barrier to him succeeding Khamenei, if anything it strongly benefits him. Khamenei himself served as President prior to becoming Supreme Leader.

Does anyone know why the standard for Iranian politicians seems to be a Western suit but without a tie?

It's generally uncommon for them and government employees to wear a tie because of religious stigma and to be 'humble' since Iranian men generally wear a collared shirt and trousers/jeans (often with a jacket).  I have seen people wear one at certain workplaces so it might be becoming slightly more common.

I know it is Iran, but is there any reason why literally the sitting VP as well as a former president in Ahmadineyad were barred from the election? (I mean the officially stated reason, not the real one which we know is that they aren't 100% telling the official line from the Supreme Leader)

Ahmadinejad already served 2 terms and was mostly running as a stunt. The main reason is to secure the Presidency for Raeisi since he is the strongest candidate and has worked his way up the totem pole pretty quickly in recent years (he served as First Deputy Chief Justice, Attorney General,  chaired the important charitable trust Astan Quds Razavi, ran for President in 2017, and was appointed the judiciary chief by Khamenei in 2019). The disqualifications have been pretty controversial since it takes most of the reformist candidates out and is of people who have served in government positions for decade. Also, Raeisi is still heading the judiciary which has also been criticized since it's a blatant conflict of interests.

[NewYorkExpress]

The head of the Iranian Central Bank, Abdolnasser Hemmati, was fired for becoming a Presidential candidate.

President Hassan Rouhani has dismissed Iran’s central bank chief, Abdolnasser Hemmati, for becoming a presidential candidate in the June 18 election.

The cabinet said in a statement on Sunday that Hemmati had been dismissed as his candidacy “prevents him from having enough presence at the central bank and performing the vital duties and responsibilities of the governor in the sensitive areas of money and foreign currencies”.

The cabinet voted to replace Hemmati with his deputy, Akbar Komijani, who also replaced Hemmati in an economic meeting chaired by Rouhani on Sunday.

[urutzizu]

Raisi wins, as expected, he is leading so far with more than 62% of the votes.

According to interior ministry (90% counted):
Total Votes so far: 28,600,000
Raisi 17,800,000
Mohsen Rezaei 3,300,000
Hemmati 2,400,000
Ghazizadeh-Hashemi 1,000,000

Void votes unclear but likely second.

59 million Iranians were eligible to vote.

Edit: Final results
28,933,004 total votes
Raisi 17,926,345
Rezaei 3,412,712
Hemmati 2,427,201
Ghazizadeh 992,918
Invalid 3,727,870

Turnout at 48.8%. More than expected, but dissidents say this is vastly embellished, according to Iranwire polling stations were deserted: https://iranwire.com/en/features/9762

[PSOL]

Just to let you all know, IranWire is a Mujihadeen mouthpiece.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Something that everyone here ought to be aware of: back in the 1980s Raisi was one of the four men who oversaw the biggest massacre of left-wingers this side of the Indonesian Genocide.

[PSOL]

I should add that by all measures, the Islamic Republic as a whole (Khamenei) wants a new Iran deal and will most likely give their final offers by the end of Rouhani’s term. The ball is under Biden’s court. Since everyone wants the Iran deal, even most of the Iranian diaspora, it is best to go through with it.

Raisi is only a hardliner in terms of inner oppression, this changes little in the stances vis a vis the US.