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October 24, 2020, 01:22:42 AM
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  NC - Survey USA - Biden +5
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Author Topic: NC - Survey USA - Biden +5  (Read 900 times)
tagimaucia
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« on: October 13, 2020, 03:08:50 PM »

https://www.wral.com/poll-trump-losing-ground-in-nc/19334083/

Quote
RALEIGH, N.C. Three weeks out from Election Day, President Donald Trump is losing ground to Democratic challenger Joe Biden in the battleground state of North Carolina, according to the results of a WRAL News poll released Tuesday.

SurveyUSA polled 669 likely voters across the state between last Thursday and Sunday for the exclusive poll, which also found voters turned off by Trump's large, in-person campaign rallies during the coronavirus pandemic. The responses to the poll have credibility intervals of +/- 4.5 to 4.8 percentage points.

Biden now holds a 50-45 percent lead over Trump in the state. In a WRAL News poll conducted a month ago, both men were tied at 47 percent each.
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Chocolate Thunder
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2020, 03:09:28 PM »

Impressive.
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Buzz
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« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2020, 03:09:43 PM »

Game over.
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2020, 03:10:12 PM »

Historically sexy!
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President Johnson
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« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2020, 03:10:45 PM »

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

Tar Heel Joe!
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2020, 03:12:15 PM »

Yeah that Cunningham plus 10 was inflated but Tillis has Covid
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2020, 03:13:30 PM »


It isn't over til all the votes are cast, only 9M voted
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darthpi
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2020, 03:13:42 PM »

Consistent with a Biden national lead around +10
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2020, 03:14:17 PM »

Mid-October 2016:

Hillary+2

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ce17282d-d070-493a-8bcd-ee02ca9016e6
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You Reap What You Sow
Rafe
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« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2020, 03:15:08 PM »



B L U E   R I D G E   P A R K W A Y   J O E
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2020, 03:16:29 PM »

Asheville Joe
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2020, 03:17:43 PM »


I mean, Hillary probably was tied or up by a hair in NC in mid October. Look at where the national polls were then (+7) vs. where they ended up (+3).
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Horus
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« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2020, 03:18:59 PM »

Trump's worst state poll of the month. He has no path without NC even if he surprises in Wisconsin like I think he will. When adjusted for MoE and shy Trump voters this is still a Biden lead.
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Chocolate Thunder
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« Reply #13 on: October 13, 2020, 03:21:53 PM »


I mean, Hillary probably was tied or up by a hair in NC in mid October. Look at where the national polls were then (+7) vs. where they ended up (+3).

All the undecideds went to him. He still loses if that happens again.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #14 on: October 13, 2020, 03:24:04 PM »

#Biden@50 in NC.



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Dread it, Run from it, President Biden arrives all the same
Western Democrat
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« Reply #15 on: October 13, 2020, 03:24:53 PM »

GREENSBORO JOE
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TC 25
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« Reply #16 on: October 13, 2020, 03:26:06 PM »

Not that it's terribly likely, but the path without NC is:

* Hold the 2016 states minus NC (15) and MI (16) and win one of

* MN, WI,  NV.

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Illiniwek
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« Reply #17 on: October 13, 2020, 03:27:31 PM »

TOBACCO NUT
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #18 on: October 13, 2020, 03:47:15 PM »

For WRAL-TV
October 8-11
669 likely voters
MoE: 4.8%
Changes with September 10-13 poll

Biden 50% (+3)
Trump 45% (-2)
Some other candidate 2% (n/c)
Undecided 3% (-2)
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ηєω яσηтιєя
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« Reply #19 on: October 13, 2020, 03:49:43 PM »

TAR HEEL JOE!

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Hammy
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« Reply #20 on: October 13, 2020, 04:05:42 PM »

Both of their October 2016 polls were Clinton 46-44. They nailed Clinton's percentage, and Trump got roughly half of the other/undecideds.

Biden wins 50-48 with a similar outcome.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #21 on: October 13, 2020, 04:13:48 PM »

yeah sex is cool but have you ever seen Biden up by 5 in NC in an A-rated SurveyUSA poll 3 weeks out from Election Day with record turnout already manifesting?
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Single Issue Covid Voter
Forumlurker161
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« Reply #22 on: October 13, 2020, 04:35:34 PM »

Not that it's terribly likely, but the path without NC is:

* Hold the 2016 states minus NC (15) and MI (16) and win one of

* MN, WI,  NV.


Technically yes, but NV is a pipe dream.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: October 13, 2020, 04:42:30 PM »

What's interesting is that for a while we were getting like 47-47 NC polls or like 45-43, but now we're moving into less and less undecided territory and Biden is still leading
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roxas11
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« Reply #24 on: October 13, 2020, 05:25:42 PM »


Hiilary was in the mid 40s and Biden is at 50

meanng that even if undeciceded voters break for Trump just like they did in 2016
He whould still lose the state to biden
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