Poll: Democrats leading in enough seats to flip the Texas House

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

At least 400 likely voters per district
MoE: 4.89%, presumably for each district

It should be noted these 22 districts are mostly suburban. Additionally, the release implies the state house polls names candidates, so this is not a generic ballot.

These the Republican-to-Democratic flips this poll indicates: HD26, HD54, HD66, HD67, HD94, HD96, HD97, HD108, HD112, HD134 and HD138. It indicates no Democratic-to-Republican flips.

If undecided voters broke evenly, Democrats would take the state house, 78 seats to 72.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

These are generic ballot tests, they aren't used named candidates, (134 should give that away) so pretty useless, honestly

I think not. The article specifically refers to "a generic Congressional ballot," but for the state house, it says incumbents are trailing/hold comfortable leads and differentiates between GOP candidates and GOP incumbents in Republican-held districts.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This would be so huge. Flipping the State House would block Republican efforts to gerrymander after the 2020 census. I'm glad they have put in tons of ressources in the state. Even if Joe Biden narrowly falls short, investing in Texas is very smart, though I'm not sure the State House actually flips in case Joe Biden doesn't carry the state.

Pretty sure that if the TX state House and senate deadlock it goes to some sort of comission where like 4/5 officers would be Republicans?

So still allows for a gerrymander, just with slightly more effort.

It stops them implementing the proposed "state electoral college", a.k.a. the gerrymandering of the governorship/row offices.