WV-MetroNews/Research America: Trump +15

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

While I don't necessarily buy this exact margin, I'm thoroughly convinced that Biden gets a bump in places simply because he's an older white male.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Off by 24 points. Unexplainable by sampling error and other typical excuses. Just like I've been saying for months, these polls have a systematic problem with rural and non-college whites that goes way beyond education weighting. West Virginia is the state that has the most rural, Republican, and non-college white combination. So the polls would be the worst here if this was systematic to those variables. And they are.

While I don't necessarily buy this exact margin, I'm thoroughly convinced that Biden gets a bump in places simply because he's an older white male.  

Wow, the white male bump got him a 3 point Democratic swing and a 1 point or less of Democratic trend. Did 13 points worse than Barack Obama. I was told Democrats would recover and were only voting Republican because of racism and sexism. The fact that Republicans on this forum bought into the identity politics laced thinking about the motives of people just goes to show how insulated we are as a community.

If you're using me as an example of a standard Republican, you're doing it wrong, EG

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Off by 24 points. Unexplainable by sampling error and other typical excuses. Just like I've been saying for months, these polls have a systematic problem with rural and non-college whites that goes way beyond education weighting. West Virginia is the state that has the most rural, Republican, and non-college white combination. So the polls would be the worst here if this was systematic to those variables. And they are.

While I don't necessarily buy this exact margin, I'm thoroughly convinced that Biden gets a bump in places simply because he's an older white male.  

Wow, the white male bump got him a 3 point Democratic swing and a 1 point or less of Democratic trend. Did 13 points worse than Barack Obama. I was told Democrats would recover and were only voting Republican because of racism and sexism. The fact that Republicans on this forum bought into the identity politics laced thinking about the motives of people just goes to show how insulated we are as a community.

If you're using me as an example of a standard Republican, you're doing it wrong, EG

No. I'm saying the opposite, that there were plenty of people like you (Republicans who supported Biden) that are way overrepresented on this forum compared to the real electorate, who bought into the line of thinking that Biden would do better simply because he's a white male. I'm pointing out there's only a fraction of an already small minority of people who are willing to push back over stuff like this - narratives that there's no evidence for. Your a good person and poster, btw, but you did buy into some nonsense.

Oh, this is one of the more tame examples of where I was wrong in terms of pre-election predictions (though I *do* give myself a pat on the back for never wavering from my position that Texas was NOT going to flip in 2020).