WV-MetroNews/Research America: Trump +15
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May 07, 2021, 06:04:30 PM

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  WV-MetroNews/Research America: Trump +15
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Author Topic: WV-MetroNews/Research America: Trump +15  (Read 1689 times)
Southern Deputy Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #25 on: October 14, 2020, 02:38:09 AM »

This poll is both believable and very bad news for the Trump campaign. But it's just one poll. I'd be interested to see if other polls reflect this result, because if that's the case, oooh boy...
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Beef
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« Reply #26 on: October 14, 2020, 07:49:13 AM »

These polls of completely uncompetitive states are beyond useless.


How so? If Biden is improving in a state like WV, thats good news for him in parts of OH and PA

I've noticed that often these polls fail to capture just how lopsided these states are. You'll have a poll showing a Republican up 20 points in Oklahoma, and they end up winning by 40. That tells you nothing at all about the state of the national race. A poll showing Trump up by only 15 in WV might mean Biden is doing better than Clinton did, but not much else.
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #27 on: November 20, 2020, 10:53:59 AM »

...
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FalterinArc
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« Reply #28 on: November 20, 2020, 10:58:59 AM »

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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #29 on: November 20, 2020, 03:45:51 PM »

Off by 24 points. Unexplainable by sampling error and other typical excuses. Just like I've been saying for months, these polls have a systematic problem with rural and non-college whites that goes way beyond education weighting. West Virginia is the state that has the most rural, Republican, and non-college white combination. So the polls would be the worst here if this was systematic to those variables. And they are.

While I don't necessarily buy this exact margin, I'm thoroughly convinced that Biden gets a bump in places simply because he's an older white male.  

Wow, the white male bump got him a 3 point Democratic swing and a 1 point or less of Democratic trend. Did 13 points worse than Barack Obama. I was told Democrats would recover and were only voting Republican because of racism and sexism. The fact that Republicans on this forum bought into the identity politics laced thinking about the motives of people just goes to show how insulated we are as a community.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #30 on: November 20, 2020, 04:30:26 PM »

Off by 24 points. Unexplainable by sampling error and other typical excuses. Just like I've been saying for months, these polls have a systematic problem with rural and non-college whites that goes way beyond education weighting. West Virginia is the state that has the most rural, Republican, and non-college white combination. So the polls would be the worst here if this was systematic to those variables. And they are.

While I don't necessarily buy this exact margin, I'm thoroughly convinced that Biden gets a bump in places simply because he's an older white male.  

Wow, the white male bump got him a 3 point Democratic swing and a 1 point or less of Democratic trend. Did 13 points worse than Barack Obama. I was told Democrats would recover and were only voting Republican because of racism and sexism. The fact that Republicans on this forum bought into the identity politics laced thinking about the motives of people just goes to show how insulated we are as a community.

If you're using me as an example of a standard Republican, you're doing it wrong, EG Tongue
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #31 on: November 20, 2020, 04:57:51 PM »

Off by 24 points. Unexplainable by sampling error and other typical excuses. Just like I've been saying for months, these polls have a systematic problem with rural and non-college whites that goes way beyond education weighting. West Virginia is the state that has the most rural, Republican, and non-college white combination. So the polls would be the worst here if this was systematic to those variables. And they are.

While I don't necessarily buy this exact margin, I'm thoroughly convinced that Biden gets a bump in places simply because he's an older white male.  

Wow, the white male bump got him a 3 point Democratic swing and a 1 point or less of Democratic trend. Did 13 points worse than Barack Obama. I was told Democrats would recover and were only voting Republican because of racism and sexism. The fact that Republicans on this forum bought into the identity politics laced thinking about the motives of people just goes to show how insulated we are as a community.

If you're using me as an example of a standard Republican, you're doing it wrong, EG Tongue

No. I'm saying the opposite, that there were plenty of people like you (Republicans who supported Biden) that are way overrepresented on this forum compared to the real electorate, who bought into the line of thinking that Biden would do better simply because he's a white male. I'm pointing out there's only a fraction of an already small minority of people who are willing to push back over stuff like this - narratives that there's no evidence for. Your a good person and poster, btw, but you did buy into some nonsense.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #32 on: November 20, 2020, 05:11:30 PM »

Off by 24 points. Unexplainable by sampling error and other typical excuses. Just like I've been saying for months, these polls have a systematic problem with rural and non-college whites that goes way beyond education weighting. West Virginia is the state that has the most rural, Republican, and non-college white combination. So the polls would be the worst here if this was systematic to those variables. And they are.

While I don't necessarily buy this exact margin, I'm thoroughly convinced that Biden gets a bump in places simply because he's an older white male.  

Wow, the white male bump got him a 3 point Democratic swing and a 1 point or less of Democratic trend. Did 13 points worse than Barack Obama. I was told Democrats would recover and were only voting Republican because of racism and sexism. The fact that Republicans on this forum bought into the identity politics laced thinking about the motives of people just goes to show how insulated we are as a community.

If you're using me as an example of a standard Republican, you're doing it wrong, EG Tongue

No. I'm saying the opposite, that there were plenty of people like you (Republicans who supported Biden) that are way overrepresented on this forum compared to the real electorate, who bought into the line of thinking that Biden would do better simply because he's a white male. I'm pointing out there's only a fraction of an already small minority of people who are willing to push back over stuff like this - narratives that there's no evidence for. Your a good person and poster, btw, but you did buy into some nonsense.

Oh, this is one of the more tame examples of where I was wrong in terms of pre-election predictions (though I *do* give myself a pat on the back for never wavering from my position that Texas was NOT going to flip in 2020). 
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AGA
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« Reply #33 on: November 20, 2020, 10:28:59 PM »

Lol @ the red avatars who ate this up.
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