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October 24, 2020, 12:57:51 AM
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  North Carolina (Monmouth): Biden +3
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Author Topic: North Carolina (Monmouth): Biden +3  (Read 1003 times)
Buzz
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« on: October 13, 2020, 10:01:09 AM »

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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2020, 10:02:54 AM »

Biden +4 really, we all know we're heading for the high turnout scenario.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2020, 10:05:33 AM »

Good to see Biden expand his lead here, Tilt Biden.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2020, 10:06:16 AM »
« Edited: October 13, 2020, 10:14:06 AM by Penn_Quaker_Girl »

I MAY have been a little bit off....

Quote

Anyway, Trump +1, tied in the Senate.

TIDBITS:

-  Bumped 538's margin (polling average) between Biden and Trump in NC from Biden +2.9 to Biden +3.5 (49.6 to 46.2).  

-  Poll also has Cunningham at +5 (49-44) over Tillis -- at least a +3-5 increase for Cunningham from their last poll of the race in early September (depending on the turnout).  This is DESPITE a major drop in Cunningham's favorability (or, at the very least, more people who are unsure how to feel about him): 

Favorabilities:
Cunningham: 25/33 (-8, was +12)
Tillis: 30/34 (-4, was =)

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Pollster
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« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2020, 10:09:19 AM »

Can somebody with a better understanding of North Carolina than myself tell how much the statewide candidates would need to win by to flip the legislature?
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Skye
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« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2020, 10:19:04 AM »

A bit odd how this state's polling isn't that consistent with a Biden +10 win.

I know, I know, uniform swings don't exist, but still. Just curious.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2020, 10:19:37 AM »

October 8-11
500 registered/likely voters
MoE: 4.4%
Changes with August 29 - September 1 poll

Among RVs
Biden 49% (+2)
Trump 46% (+1)
Jorgensen 3% (n/c)
Hawkins 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Blankenship 0% (no voters) (n/c from 0% but with some voters)
No one 0% (no voters) (-1)
Other candidate 0% (no voters) (-1)
Undecided 2% (-1)

"Other" (Jorgensen+Hawkins+Blankenship+Other Candidate) 3% (-2)

Likely voters - high turnout model
Biden 50% (+2)
Trump 46% (n/c)
Other 2% (-1)
Undecided 2% (-1)

Likely voters - low turnout model
Biden 49% (+1)
Trump 48% (+2)
Other 2% (-1)
Undecided 1% (-2)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2020, 10:21:25 AM »

Interesting how we've turned a corner and Monmouth's high turnout scenario is now usually benefitting Dems where their polls were generally saying Rs for a while
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You Reap What You Sow
Rafe
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« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2020, 10:21:40 AM »

Keep 'em coming and keep the MAGA crowd sweatin'!
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2020, 10:23:36 AM »

A bit odd how this state's polling isn't that consistent with a Biden +10 win.

I know, I know, uniform swings don't exist, but still. Just curious.

It's an inelastic and polarized state, full of party hacks on both sides, with an almost exactly even partisan lean. It's the midpoint between the D-polarized VA, MN, CO and the R-polarized MS, LA, AR.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2020, 10:25:09 AM »

A bit odd how this state's polling isn't that consistent with a Biden +10 win.

I know, I know, uniform swings don't exist, but still. Just curious.

Why do you think it is not consistent ?

This poll and the Atlas poll average has B+4 with likely voters.

Trump won by 4.

A swing of 8 points.

Clinton+2 nationally +8 = Biden+10.
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MplsDem
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« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2020, 11:02:08 AM »

Can somebody with a better understanding of North Carolina than myself tell how much the statewide candidates would need to win by to flip the legislature?

North Carolina is gerrymandered to hell, so the best we can hope for is to block the GOP from getting a veto proof majority in at least one chamber.  The GOP would need 7 seats in the NC House and 1 seat in the NC Senate I believe.  Unfortunately, I believe that redistricting in NC is controlled by the legislature(Gov. cannot veto maps), so until we pack the federal courts and overturn the Common Cause decision, not much will change.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2020, 11:09:44 AM »

Good to see Biden expand his lead here, Tilt Biden.

I always thought Biden was a better fit for NC than AZ.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: October 13, 2020, 11:13:06 AM »

Can somebody with a better understanding of North Carolina than myself tell how much the statewide candidates would need to win by to flip the legislature?

North Carolina is gerrymandered to hell, so the best we can hope for is to block the GOP from getting a veto proof majority in at least one chamber.  The GOP would need 7 seats in the NC House and 1 seat in the NC Senate I believe.  Unfortunately, I believe that redistricting in NC is controlled by the legislature(Gov. cannot veto maps), so until we pack the federal courts and overturn the Common Cause decision, not much will change.

If Democrats keep control of the NCSC they'll have some voice in the process.
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« Reply #14 on: October 13, 2020, 11:44:17 AM »

I MAY have been a little bit off....

Quote

Anyway, Trump +1, tied in the Senate.

TIDBITS:

-  Bumped 538's margin (polling average) between Biden and Trump in NC from Biden +2.9 to Biden +3.5 (49.6 to 46.2).  

-  Poll also has Cunningham at +5 (49-44) over Tillis -- at least a +3-5 increase for Cunningham from their last poll of the race in early September (depending on the turnout).  This is DESPITE a major drop in Cunningham's favorability (or, at the very least, more people who are unsure how to feel about him):  

Favorabilities:
Cunningham: 25/33 (-8, was +12)
Tillis: 30/34 (-4, was =)


“That Cunningham guy is a disgusting man who has no morals....I’m going to vote for him now!”
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #15 on: October 13, 2020, 11:49:53 AM »

Can somebody with a better understanding of North Carolina than myself tell how much the statewide candidates would need to win by to flip the legislature?

North Carolina is gerrymandered to hell, so the best we can hope for is to block the GOP from getting a veto proof majority in at least one chamber.  The GOP would need 7 seats in the NC House and 1 seat in the NC Senate I believe.  Unfortunately, I believe that redistricting in NC is controlled by the legislature(Gov. cannot veto maps), so until we pack the federal courts and overturn the Common Cause decision, not much will change.

If Democrats keep control of the NCSC they'll have some voice in the process.

They are guaranteed to keep control for 2 more years.  It's currently 6D/1R, but the R is in 1 of the 3 seats up this year, so even in the best case for the NC GOP, the court would be 4D/3R until the end of 2022. 
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #16 on: October 13, 2020, 12:09:59 PM »


Called it! (Looking at the high turnout column)
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #17 on: October 13, 2020, 12:20:54 PM »

I MAY have been a little bit off....

Quote

Anyway, Trump +1, tied in the Senate.

TIDBITS:

-  Bumped 538's margin (polling average) between Biden and Trump in NC from Biden +2.9 to Biden +3.5 (49.6 to 46.2).  

-  Poll also has Cunningham at +5 (49-44) over Tillis -- at least a +3-5 increase for Cunningham from their last poll of the race in early September (depending on the turnout).  This is DESPITE a major drop in Cunningham's favorability (or, at the very least, more people who are unsure how to feel about him):  

Favorabilities:
Cunningham: 25/33 (-8, was +12)
Tillis: 30/34 (-4, was =)


“That Cunningham guy is a disgusting man who has no morals....I’m going to vote for him now!”
.
Tom Tillis can't be at the ACB hearings due to fact he has Covid, that's why he can't capitalize on Cunningham scandal
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Dread it, Run from it, President Biden arrives all the same
Western Democrat
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« Reply #18 on: October 13, 2020, 12:21:29 PM »

I MAY have been a little bit off....

Quote
Anyway, Trump +1, tied in the Senate.

TIDBITS:

-  Bumped 538's margin (polling average) between Biden and Trump in NC from Biden +2.9 to Biden +3.5 (49.6 to 46.2).  

-  Poll also has Cunningham at +5 (49-44) over Tillis -- at least a +3-5 increase for Cunningham from their last poll of the race in early September (depending on the turnout).  This is DESPITE a major drop in Cunningham's favorability (or, at the very least, more people who are unsure how to feel about him):  

Favorabilities:
Cunningham: 25/33 (-8, was +12)
Tillis: 30/34 (-4, was =)


“That Cunningham guy is a disgusting man who has no morals....I’m going to vote for him now!”
.
Tom Tillis can't be at the ACB hearings due to fact he has Come vid, that's why he can't capitalize on Cunningham scandal

Come vid?
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You Reap What You Sow
Rafe
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« Reply #19 on: October 13, 2020, 12:27:17 PM »

Tom Tillis can't be at the ACB hearings due to fact he has Come vid, that's why he can't capitalize on Cunningham scandal

Come vid?

Hope everyone has face shields. You're gonna need 'em.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #20 on: October 13, 2020, 12:29:30 PM »

Can somebody with a better understanding of North Carolina than myself tell how much the statewide candidates would need to win by to flip the legislature?

North Carolina is gerrymandered to hell, so the best we can hope for is to block the GOP from getting a veto proof majority in at least one chamber.  The GOP would need 7 seats in the NC House and 1 seat in the NC Senate I believe.  Unfortunately, I believe that redistricting in NC is controlled by the legislature(Gov. cannot veto maps), so until we pack the federal courts and overturn the Common Cause decision, not much will change.

If Democrats keep control of the NCSC they'll have some voice in the process.

They are guaranteed to keep control for 2 more years.  It's currently 6D/1R, but the R is in 1 of the 3 seats up this year, so even in the best case for the NC GOP, the court would be 4D/3R until the end of 2022. 

Yeah, and if the top of the ticket Democrats are polling as well as they are now I expect the Democrats to keep the current margin or even go to 7-0.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #21 on: October 13, 2020, 05:18:42 PM »

Seems like we're converging on a Biden low-mid single digit lead in NC.
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