MO-SEN 2022 megathread: ERIC

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Another Pub may be throwing his hat into the ring.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/22/politics/john-wood-leaving-january-6-committee/index.html

Look forward to him getting 2%.

He's in: https://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/lawyer-who-left-jan-6-panel-seeking-missouri-us-senate-seat/23H74GUMUFEQHP7R7NZ64W7GBU/

As an Independent, btw.

The hyper optimist in me says he gets to like 10% as a GOP not Greitens candidate and puts the race in reach.
The realist says all his votes come from dumbass moderate Democrats because ‘strategic voting’ and ends up helping the the Greitens margin.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another Pub may be throwing his hat into the ring.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/22/politics/john-wood-leaving-january-6-committee/index.html

Look forward to him getting 2%.

He's in: https://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/lawyer-who-left-jan-6-panel-seeking-missouri-us-senate-seat/23H74GUMUFEQHP7R7NZ64W7GBU/

As an Independent, btw.

The hyper optimist in me says he gets to like 10% as a GOP not Greitens candidate and puts the race in reach.
The realist says all his votes come from dumbass moderate Democrats because ‘strategic voting’ and ends up helping the the Greitens margin.

Sadly, this cannot at all be discounted as a possible outcome. Though, I expect moderate Democrats to vote for the Democratic nominee. Moderates without a partisan ID are likely to go differently, if this guy's campaign gets off the ground. Democrats need moderates without a partisan ID if they want to win a plurality in Missouri.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

In Missouri, the partisan R base is larger than the partisan D base. If there's a significant moderate candidate in the race, it helps Republicans.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In Missouri, the partisan R base is larger than the partisan D base. If there's a significant moderate candidate in the race, it helps Republicans.

I mean considering a good chunk of the D base in MO is Black voters and white liberals in both majour cities and Columbia, I’m not so sure how true this is. Most stereotypical “swingy white suburbs” lean right in the state, plus Springfield. There is also still some ancestral Dem support in rural communities though idk if you’d call these “swing voters”.

Furthermore, we have seen some recent cases of Dems dramatically outperforming Trump statewide with not any significant cases on the GOPs side despite Trump supposedly turning off moderate/swing voters

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Greitans is leading by six in the last poll the next state to fall is IA, Grassley was ahead by 3 but 5/6 pts like Demings and Beasley are down is within the MOE, Crist and Ryan are leading and as I said WVA, AZ, KS, OH, FL and MD and MA  2018 bucked party trends in OH and it's D's plus 7 now just like in 2018 it was D plus 8 and D's won H races in NC and TX that's why Beasley and Beto are competetive, but we would win NC before MO anyways

We aren't gonna win every race in this Environment but 51(55 Senates and 218/217 either way in H and 25 GOVS is a good measurement , but in this Environment where Biden Approvals are so low Rs are expecting 54S seats 241H seats and 30Govs they won't get because D's were expecting the samething in 2020 when Trump had the same Approvals it's Turnout and D's since 2006 has over number Rs 65/60 M and Obama was called the winner over Romney at 303 in 2012 but it's wave insurance seats outside of MI, PA and WI

If we gonna make MO competetive KY Charles Booker or Kendra Horn can win too, Kendra Horn stands a better chance BECAUSE they are plenty of Latinos and Blks in OK same with KY as our 56th seat

But clearly Ryan and Crist and Demings no matter what Rs say are trending D and have the best shot, OH split its votes in 2018 between DeWine and Brown and GILLUM almost beat  DeSantis, Putnam was supposed to be Gov not DeSantis and if Crist wins so will Demings

I donated again to Ryan he has 1oM dollars in the Bank and Crist is a multimillionaire

By the way Rs aren't gonna win KS convincingly, Laura Kelly was down 47/43 in the only poll that's within the MOE

[Pollster]

Danforth PAC to spend $20 million to lift independent John Wood in U.S. Senate race

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Danforth PAC to spend $20 million to lift independent John Wood in U.S. Senate race

Tossed straight into the furnace

[MarkD]

Danforth PAC to spend $20 million to lift independent John Wood in U.S. Senate race

So, ... Jack Danforth is either super-sure that Greitens is going to win the primary, or else if he acknowledges that it's a tight three-way race, he's also against Hartzler and Schmitt being the nominee, because he thinks there are things wrong about the two of them too? No matter which of the three of them win - Greitens, Hartzler, or Schmitt - Danforth doesn't want any of them to be the GOP nominee, so that's why he's backing John Wood - to be the best center-right choice?

Or, maybe Danforth will change his mind after the primary if Schmitt or Hartzler DO win. Maybe if Schmitt wins, Danforth will renege on all of the money he promised to throw behind Wood and will support Schmitt after all. At his age, we can't trust that Danforth's mind is running like a clock.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1545576799727386624?t=mcIGii5Ba_GtEP4...

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I love how trump crosses off each name of the list in real time for maximum media who’ring

[Utah Neolib]

I don’t care about Billy Long’s politics, he’s just funny.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1545576799727386624?t=mcIGii5Ba_GtEP4...

Trump's affections lie elsewhere Vicki.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/04/trump-greitens-endorsement-missouri-00014069

[Politician]

Hopefully Trump endorses Schmitt. Greitens does not belong in the US Senate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's were 6 pts behind in this race

[2016]

D's were 6 pts behind in this race

Only if it is Greitens.

Schmitt will win by 15-20 Points.

[Mayor U.N. Trustable]

With the newest poll showing Schmitt leading and Greitens in third, what is likely to happen?

[wbrocks67]

No GOP candidate raises $1M+

Hartzler closest with $937k

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1548250644720431105

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/sfpathe/status/1552510170672107521?t=bOCBJmVofQiHIFZWXrM6IA&...

[Oppo]

https://twitter.com/sfpathe/status/1552510170672107521?t=bOCBJmVofQiHIFZWXrM6IA&...

Angling for a Trump endorsement…

[MarkD]

So, are many people thinking Trump will wait until the day before - Monday, Aug 1 - to announce that he's endorsing Schmitt? Will it mean a huge surge for Schmitt, and he'll win by several points?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Trump said on Truth social he would endorse someone today.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump said on Truth social he would endorse someone today.

There is some speculation going around that it will not be Schmitt because Trump is mad at him for sharing a poll showing Trump at 42% in Missouri.  But trying to predict what Trump will do is a fool's game, so nothing would surprise me here.

[Politician]

Trump said on Truth social he would endorse someone today.

Uh oh, Greitens endorsement coming?

[windjammer]

Dear god Greitens is a total psychopath

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good news to Ds if Grietans win