MO-SEN 2022 megathread: ERIC
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Author Topic: MO-SEN 2022 megathread: ERIC  (Read 34784 times)
Pollster
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« Reply #375 on: July 13, 2021, 12:08:51 PM »



Would be this cycle’s Bredesen
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Skunk
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« Reply #376 on: July 13, 2021, 12:14:04 PM »

I have no idea what the national party sees in Nixon. It's not like he's going to be any more palatable to rural voters in a nationalized Senate race and he sure as hell isn't able to get the black turnout he would need to win after his handling of Ferguson. 
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #377 on: July 13, 2021, 12:17:23 PM »

Nixon gets in, it's a Tossup we need him since Demings isn't doing anything I'm FL, best seats OH, NC, MO

But, we haven't seen any polls except FL
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #378 on: July 13, 2021, 01:02:35 PM »

Evidently, D's aren't happy with Kunce that is obvious, he's on track to lose by the same margin as Nichole Galloway

Don't forget James Carville is imputing on D's in S he said from say 1 he liked Ryan, Jackson and Demings for S
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They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
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« Reply #379 on: July 13, 2021, 01:49:51 PM »



Would be this cycle’s Bredesen

Nooooo please I love Lucas Kunce so much
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #380 on: July 13, 2021, 01:54:05 PM »

We've seen this story before. If Nixon runs, he will lose by 10-15 points even though the polls have it as a tossup.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #381 on: July 13, 2021, 02:01:20 PM »

My guess is Nixon loses. Senate races are more polarised than gubernatorial ones, as some here have said (there's no way KY or LA would have Democratic senators); he left office a while ago; his handling of the Ferguson protests likely hurt his popularity somewhat; 2022 won't be good for Democrats; and the nation is much more polarised than it was in 2024. Still - Nixon won reelection by more than 15% in a strong Romney state in a good GOP year, so while things have changed, this race should be one to watch if Nixon runs; the margin might (and this may be me hoping) be in the single digits or possibly even below 5%, though Nixon winning is probably still unlikely.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #382 on: July 13, 2021, 04:43:40 PM »

I have no idea what the national party sees in Nixon. 

The past. For MO Democrats, that's understandable, if misguided.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #383 on: July 13, 2021, 04:46:41 PM »

Nixon will energize our Act blue donations, it's not a wave yet on either side until the yr of the Election, it will swell our donations in OH, MO and NC, as the easiest pickups, but he hasn't jumped in

Demings has been a disappointment, she didn't energize anything when she jumped in, that's why she is 20 pts down
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Lognog
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« Reply #384 on: July 13, 2021, 04:47:18 PM »

Everyone here is dunking on Nixon, but name one candidate that would do better (Besides Kander who doesn't want it anymore)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #385 on: July 13, 2021, 04:48:37 PM »

Kunce is just as bad as DEMINGS
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #386 on: July 13, 2021, 07:25:33 PM »

Oh god, we're really gonna try the "red-state Democratic Governor for Senate" card again, aren't we?

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #387 on: July 13, 2021, 07:57:21 PM »

Oh god, we're really gonna try the "red-state Democratic Governor for Senate" card again, aren't we?



He hasn't announced yet

OH, NC are Tossup/Tilt R and MO can be too

FL is gone due to DeSantis D's have a better chance in MO than wasting 1B in FL with Cuban Rubio running with DeSantis

There still can be split voting in OH between Renacci and Ryan
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Suburbia
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« Reply #388 on: July 13, 2021, 08:52:52 PM »

No, Nixon should not run.

Bredesen, Bayh, Nixon are from a dying relic sadly....there is a reason why Christie, Pataki, Schwarzenegger, Hogan and Baker aren't running as blue state Republicans in Senate seats, because Senate races are too nationalized.

Nixon should be an elder statesman; Schumer hasn't learned his lesson about recruiting red state governors...Manchin is an exception, this may never happen again
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #389 on: July 13, 2021, 08:53:46 PM »

No, Nixon should not run.

Bredesen, Bayh, Nixon are from a dying relic sadly....there is a reason why Christie, Pataki, Schwarzenegger, Hogan and Baker aren't running as blue state Republicans in Senate seats, because Senate races are too nationalized.

Nixon should be an elder statesman; Schumer hasn't learned his lesson about recruiting red state governors...Manchin is an exception, this may never happen again

D's can steal AK, MO, OH and NC and what will Rs think, it's wave insurance
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Chips
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« Reply #390 on: July 13, 2021, 09:03:42 PM »

Likely R.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #391 on: July 13, 2021, 09:49:37 PM »


Polls underestimate Black and Brown support Nixon, Ryan, and Beasley will be very competetive with Black and Brown support

The only reason why we aren't that competetive in FL, Trump lives there
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Pericles
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« Reply #392 on: July 14, 2021, 12:45:06 AM »

Maybe Nixon vs Greitens would have a somewhat competitive margin, still I very highly doubt that Nixon can actually win (though by MO's partisan lean, it is not quite as hard as it was for Bredesen). Unfortunately the polls could actually show a winnable race and so it would be annoying if Democrats get suckered into wasting money here (on the other hand, if they have a fundraising advantage, it might be good to force Republicans to play defence here).
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #393 on: July 15, 2021, 06:55:02 PM »

Everyone here is dunking on Nixon, but name one candidate that would do better (Besides Kander who doesn't want it anymore)

Russ Carnahan, Chris Koster, etc. They're not especially good candidates, but they were reasonably well-liked Democrats in their time and not nearly as stained by controversy as Jay Nixon was by the end of his tenure.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #394 on: July 16, 2021, 05:46:08 AM »

Everyone here is dunking on Nixon, but name one candidate that would do better (Besides Kander who doesn't want it anymore)

Russ Carnahan, Chris Koster, etc. They're not especially good candidates, but they were reasonably well-liked Democrats in their time and not nearly as stained by controversy as Jay Nixon was by the end of his tenure.

Jay Nixon would do better than either of them, especially Carnahan.  That said, Kansas City Mayor Quentin Lucas might be better if he’s interested.  If not, Nixon and Sifton both have their pros and cons, but either way, the goal would be to have wave/Roy Moore-tier scandal insurance and make Republicans waste some money here.  Plus, it’s always helpful in downballot races if you can at least run a competent candidate for Senate and Governor.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #395 on: July 16, 2021, 05:58:37 AM »

We shouldn't even be having this megathread. Megathreads are for competitive races.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #396 on: July 16, 2021, 06:27:46 AM »

We shouldn't even be having this megathread. Megathreads are for competitive races.

The Republican primary is competitive and likely to be one of the highest-profile Senate primaries in 2022.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #397 on: July 16, 2021, 08:17:14 AM »

We shouldn't even be having this megathread. Megathreads are for competitive races.

If Nixon, only if Nixon gets in, it will be competetive but we heard the same thing about McCounghey
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Pollster
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« Reply #398 on: July 16, 2021, 08:24:34 AM »

Everyone here is dunking on Nixon, but name one candidate that would do better (Besides Kander who doesn't want it anymore)

Russ Carnahan, Chris Koster, etc. They're not especially good candidates, but they were reasonably well-liked Democrats in their time and not nearly as stained by controversy as Jay Nixon was by the end of his tenure.

Jay Nixon would do better than either of them, especially Carnahan.  That said, Kansas City Mayor Quentin Lucas might be better if he’s interested.  If not, Nixon and Sifton both have their pros and cons, but either way, the goal would be to have wave/Roy Moore-tier scandal insurance and make Republicans waste some money here.  Plus, it’s always helpful in downballot races if you can at least run a competent candidate for Senate and Governor.

There's also Clint Zweifel, but I believe he's already ruled this race out.
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Left Wing
FalterinArc
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« Reply #399 on: July 16, 2021, 08:38:36 AM »

We shouldn't even be having this megathread. Megathreads are for competitive races.
Not everyone only finds who wins between the Republican and the Democrat to be the only interesting part of an election.
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