IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll thread: Biden +4, Biden +5 in head-to-head

[wbrocks67]

OK, but let's just for the moment assume that this is a real movement toward Trump.
What could be causing it?

I think it's his resumption of rallies and his dismissal of COVID.

Why would dismissing COVID help him when majority of the American public disapprove of his handling? If anything, that would continue to hurt him.

[Ljube]

OK, but let's just for the moment assume that this is a real movement toward Trump.
What could be causing it?

I think it's his resumption of rallies and his dismissal of COVID.

Why would dismissing COVID help him when majority of the American public disapprove of his handling? If anything, that would continue to hurt him.

Because COVID is surging everywhere, not just in the US. In places that had the toughest lockdowns you can imagine and mask mandates. It shows that nothing he could have done differently would have made a difference. And people are genuinely tired of COVID. Tired of only getting the bad news. They want a bit of optimism.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

OK, but let's just for the moment assume that this is a real movement toward Trump.
What could be causing it?

I think it's his resumption of rallies and his dismissal of COVID.

Why would dismissing COVID help him when majority of the American public disapprove of his handling? If anything, that would continue to hurt him.

Because COVID is surging everywhere, not just in the US. In places that had the toughest lockdowns you can imagine and mask mandates. It shows that nothing he could have done differently would have made a difference. And people are genuinely tired of COVID. Tired of only getting the bad news. They want a bit of optimism.

Arguing that little can be done about COVID is one thing; denying that it's a problem is quite another.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

OK, but let's just for the moment assume that this is a real movement toward Trump.
What could be causing it?

I think it's his resumption of rallies and his dismissal of COVID.

Why would dismissing COVID help him when majority of the American public disapprove of his handling? If anything, that would continue to hurt him.

Because COVID is surging everywhere, not just in the US. In places that had the toughest lockdowns you can imagine and mask mandates. It shows that nothing he could have done differently would have made a difference. And people are genuinely tired of COVID. Tired of only getting the bad news. They want a bit of optimism.

Yes, but why would dismissal help him? Honestly, if Trump could STFU for 3 weeks, he might have pulled it off.

[MillennialModerate]

What’s the credibility of these people ?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

OK, but let's just for the moment assume that this is a real movement toward Trump.
What could be causing it?

I think it's his resumption of rallies and his dismissal of COVID.

It does seem like there has been slight movement toward Trump in the last couple days, as reflected in the 538 model. 

Their model has Biden at 87% to win today, which is identical to one week ago.  If the polls had remained stable, Biden would have increased his win probability just due to the reduced uncertainty with one week less remaining.  The fact that the numbers have remained the same would seem to reflect a slight expected tightening that is built into the model.

[Beet]

OK, but let's just for the moment assume that this is a real movement toward Trump.
What could be causing it?

I think it's his resumption of rallies and his dismissal of COVID.

Why would dismissing COVID help him when majority of the American public disapprove of his handling? If anything, that would continue to hurt him.

Because COVID is surging everywhere, not just in the US. In places that had the toughest lockdowns you can imagine and mask mandates. It shows that nothing he could have done differently would have made a difference. And people are genuinely tired of COVID. Tired of only getting the bad news. They want a bit of optimism.

Not everywhere. Cases are surging in Europe, but still pretty damn low in Australia, Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan and New Zealand.

The tough lockdowns and mask mandates were right because at that time the mortality rate was a lot higher. You'll notice that while case numbers have increased dramatically in Europe, deaths have not and are still way below where they were in the Spring.

[Bootes Void]

this seems like a terrible poll

[Alben Barkley]

This poll has been all over the place. I thought it was garbage before, still do now.

[Umengus]

OK, but let's just for the moment assume that this is a real movement toward Trump.
What could be causing it?

I think it's his resumption of rallies and his dismissal of COVID.

Biden corruption.

[DrScholl]

This poll has been biased toward Trump so it cannot be believed.

[Senator Incitatus]

Real shocker, honestly. I though Trafalgar was going to be out on a limb for the rest of the race. We might have polls converge in the final weeks entirely based on how strongly they adjust for education/non-response bias. Really goes to show how much of polling is subjective prediction.

What’s the credibility of these people ?

A/B in the 538 model with a very small (0.80) Republican bias, but it's a tracking poll so take any individual result with a grain of salt; could change by tomorrow.

[Horus]

They do this every year. If the USC tracker also tightens and we get a couple major national polls confirming this, then I'll worry. IBD has been bouncy and Republican friendly since 2012.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Not everywhere. Cases are surging in Europe, but still pretty damn low in Australia, Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan and New Zealand.

4 of 5 are island[ish]. And Asia are social-distancing even without epidemics, lol.

The tough lockdowns and mask mandates were right because at that time the mortality rate was a lot higher.

Tough, but early and short and mostly local lock-downs to help hospitals to cope with Covid, yes, but it is not what happened in EU in my opinion.

You'll notice that while case numbers have increased dramatically in Europe, deaths have not and are still way below where they were in the Spring.

No? Quick in-head calculation:
Since OCT 1st (Europe) 7-day average:
Cases +220%
Deaths +180%

Since SEP 1st (Europe) 7-day average:
Cases +450%
Deaths +400%

Deaths are lagging, though.

Economy?
Real GDP YoY Q2. US -9.0%, European Union -13.9% (UK -22%). And recovery goes slower in EU than in USA (pre-second-wave). Imagine now what happens if EU will be forced to 2nd total lock-down.

Trump is still toast, because Democrats and American Media won this fight, and everyone now thinks it is Economy vs Grandma. Reality looks more like this:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/business/coronavirus-recession-equality/
The covid-19 recession is the most unequal in modern U.S. history

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Job losses from the pandemic overwhelmingly affected low-wage, minority workers
most. Seven months into the recovery, Black women, Black men and mothers
of school-age children are taking the longest time to regain their employment.

Recessions often hit poorer households harder, but this one is doing so at a scale that is the worst in generations, the analysis shows.

While the nation overall has regained nearly half of the lost jobs, several key demographic groups have recovered more slowly, including mothers of school-age children, Black men, Black women, Hispanic men, Asian Americans, younger Americans (ages 25 to 34) and people without college degrees.

White rich urban libs (that is D elite) + R seniors who are not effected of lock-downs
vs
low-wage, minority females (that is D backbone)

Re: New Zeland

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53796434
New Zealand: Jacinda Ardern delays election over coronavirus fears

This what D would demand if they REALLY cared about the corona  :


Re: IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll:

NyT/Siena has the best and most transparent methodology (Selzer, too, but they poll once a half year lmao). If you take IBD/TIPP over NyT/Siena you're fooling yourself. With that said, there is, perhaps, a slight tightening, may be, 1%. Or, may be, not LMAO.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

OK, but let's just for the moment assume that this is a real movement toward Trump.
What could be causing it?

I think it's his resumption of rallies and his dismissal of COVID.

Biden corruption.

[Beet]

Not everywhere. Cases are surging in Europe, but still pretty damn low in Australia, Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan and New Zealand.

4 of 5 are island[ish]. And Asia are social-distancing even without epidemics, lol.

Well the U.K. is islandish too, so we know being islandish isn't a free pass. The second statement is simply flat out wrong and possibly a racial stereotype.

The tough lockdowns and mask mandates were right because at that time the mortality rate was a lot higher.

Tough, but early and short and mostly local lock-downs to help hospitals to cope with Covid, yes, but it is not what happened in EU in my opinion.

It did in Italy and turned a horrific situation where nurses were committing suicide, around entirely.

You'll notice that while case numbers have increased dramatically in Europe, deaths have not and are still way below where they were in the Spring.

No? Quick in-head calculation:
Since OCT 1st (Europe) 7-day average:
Cases +220%
Deaths +180%

Since SEP 1st (Europe) 7-day average:
Cases +450%
Deaths +400%

Deaths are lagging, though.

Misleading by using percentages instead of absolute numbers. On a per capita basis, the EU is still doing better than us on deaths.

Economy?
Real GDP YoY Q2. US -9.0%, European Union -13.9% (UK -22%). And recovery goes slower in EU than in USA (pre-second-wave). Imagine now what happens if EU will be forced to 2nd total lock-down.

The European Union economy suffered more. But they also suffered more during the 2008 crisis, when GDP fell -6% vs -3.5% for the US, despite the crisis being centered in the U.S. The EU economy seems to be more cyclically sensitive. But thanks to paying 80% of worker salaries, the human suffering may be less and the unemployment rate is a bit lower (7.4%).

[Hammy]

OK, but let's just for the moment assume that this is a real movement toward Trump.
What could be causing it?

I think it's his resumption of rallies and his dismissal of COVID.

Why would dismissing COVID help him when majority of the American public disapprove of his handling? If anything, that would continue to hurt him.

Because COVID is surging everywhere, not just in the US. In places that had the toughest lockdowns you can imagine and mask mandates. It shows that nothing he could have done differently would have made a difference. And people are genuinely tired of COVID. Tired of only getting the bad news. They want a bit of optimism.

If people would wear masks and stop going out of their way to force a 'back to normal' timeline on their own, then maybe they'd get something other than bad news. The ones who are tired of hearing about covid are the exact reason why we're still dealing with it to the extent we are.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Pre-rounding changes:

Biden +3%
Biden 49% (n/c)
Trump 46% (n/c)
Jorgensen 3% (n/c)
Hawkins 1% (n/c)
Other 0% (n/c)
Not sure 1% (n/c)

Head-to-head:

Biden +2%
Biden 49% (n/c)
Trump 47% (+1)

[Buzz]

Fantastic

[Gass3268]

Gut feeling that this will heard back closer to the average by election day, but it will be an adventure until then!

[Arkansas Yankee]

OK, but let's just for the moment assume that this is a real movement toward Trump.
What could be causing it?

I think it's his resumption of rallies and his dismissal of COVID.

Why would dismissing COVID help him when majority of the American public disapprove of his handling? If anything, that would continue to hurt him.

Because COVID is surging everywhere, not just in the US. In places that had the toughest lockdowns you can imagine and mask mandates. It shows that nothing he could have done differently would have made a difference. And people are genuinely tired of COVID. Tired of only getting the bad news. They want a bit of optimism.

If people would wear masks and stop going out of their way to force a 'back to normal' timeline on their own, then maybe they'd get something other than bad news. The ones who are tired of hearing about covid are the exact reason why we're still dealing with it to the extent we are.

The latest CDC Position is that face mask prevent you from spreading the virus but basically do not provide the wearer with protection. The CDC recommends the general public wear cloth face masks. Most of the public does not wear cloth masks.  So they probably do not even prevent the spread.

Surgical masks provide the wearer with general protection.  But it is only good for one time.  The general public do not wear surgical masks.

https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/personal-protective-equipment-infection-control/n95-respirators-surgical-masks-and-face-masks#:~:text=If%20worn%20properly%2C%20a,respiratory%20secretions%20to%20others.

[VAR]

Biden +5

Biden 50% (+1)
Trump 45% (-1)
Jorgensen 3% (n/c)
Hawkins 1% (n/c)

H2H: Biden +4

Biden 50% (+1)
Trump 46% (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden +5

Biden 50% (+1)
Trump 45% (-1)
Jorgensen 3% (n/c)
Hawkins 1% (n/c)

H2H: Biden +4

Biden 50% (+1)
Trump 46% (-1)

*watches the "it's tightening!" crowd slowly deflate*

[Gass3268]

Wish they would show us what the five different days in their sample looks like. Was their a really good result for Biden today or did a really good day for Trump fall off?

[Kalimantan]

OK, but let's just for the moment assume that this is a real movement toward Trump.
What could be causing it?

I think it's his resumption of rallies and his dismissal of COVID.

I think its probably because you've convinced most on here to vote for Trump after all. Congratulations!