PA-01/Global Strategy Group (D): Biden +15
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  PA-01/Global Strategy Group (D): Biden +15
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Author Topic: PA-01/Global Strategy Group (D): Biden +15  (Read 615 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 13, 2020, 03:46:24 AM »

I don't think this poll has been posted yet:

54% Biden
39% Trump

2016: Hillary +2

Quote
ABOUT THE POLL

Global Strategy Group conducted a survey of 400 likely 2020 General Election voters in Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District between October 1 and October 4, 2020. The survey had a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. The margin of error on sub-samples is greater.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/13pZDCHY4MKZKOhsWwcRMNQiQPOMul0cR/view
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2020, 04:01:49 AM »

BIG BIDEN BUXXX
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2020, 04:12:20 AM »

        Joe BUCKS BUNNY Biden:
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2020, 04:21:18 AM »

This was Clinton 49-47 in 2016, close to a national bellwether.
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Ljube
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« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2020, 04:30:53 AM »

This was Clinton 49-47 in 2016, close to a national bellwether.

Yes. Absolutely. A poll like this is devastating for Trump.
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Pericles
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« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2020, 04:36:21 AM »

House numbers?
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VAR
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2020, 04:36:56 AM »



Fitzpatrick leads 47-45.
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Pericles
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2020, 04:38:19 AM »


Ooh it's close. Maybe Dems can flip this race with some more effort and investment.
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Ljube
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« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2020, 04:41:01 AM »


I don't think so. But the difference between the House race and the presidential race is telling.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2020, 04:46:06 AM »


I don't think so. But the difference between the House race and the presidential race is telling.


Agreed, Ljube.  Dems might have a shot here, but PA-01 is like TX-23: they love them some wave-resistant moderate heroes. 
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2020, 04:47:43 AM »

Isn't this like the 3rd Consecutive Poll (All DEM Internals?) showing a Biden win.

Also doesn't it appear that DEM margins are increasing every polling cycle?

Maybe my old many memory is cheating, plus too much work to wade through the Atlas / Talk Elections polling board to go back in time on CD polls in various places. (Pet peeve involving poor file mgmt structures in such a cluttered board).
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2020, 04:54:00 AM »

Pretty sure every PA-01 poll to date has had Biden at double digits or just about there (like +9). Bucks County had a blue wave even in 2019, so this is prime territory. Casey and Wolf also won it by double digits as well.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2020, 05:56:02 AM »

I hate to pour cold water on this, but perhaps this shows how far the internal poll has to pump up Biden’s share of the electorate to make this House race look competitive.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: October 13, 2020, 06:20:27 AM »

I hate to pour cold water on this, but perhaps this shows how far the internal poll has to pump up Biden’s share of the electorate to make this House race look competitive.

Nearly every poll has had Biden up double digits here. I don't think you understand what type of seat this is. Trump will be uniquely toxic here.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #14 on: October 13, 2020, 06:48:01 AM »

I hate to pour cold water on this, but perhaps this shows how far the internal poll has to pump up Biden’s share of the electorate to make this House race look competitive.

Nearly every poll has had Biden up double digits here. I don't think you understand what type of seat this is. Trump will be uniquely toxic here.

*shrug* I grew up not too far from there. Lower Bucks is more downscale white suburbia that has not shifted as much as the more affluent suburbs in Upper Bucks (in this district) and elsewhere outside Philadelphia. This is a really huge swing.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #15 on: October 13, 2020, 06:53:21 AM »

I hate to pour cold water on this, but perhaps this shows how far the internal poll has to pump up Biden’s share of the electorate to make this House race look competitive.

Nearly every poll has had Biden up double digits here. I don't think you understand what type of seat this is. Trump will be uniquely toxic here.

*shrug* I grew up not too far from there. Lower Bucks is more downscale white suburbia that has not shifted as much as the more affluent suburbs in Upper Bucks (in this district) and elsewhere outside Philadelphia. This is a really huge swing.

Casey and Wolf both won PA-01 by these types of margins in 2018.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #16 on: October 13, 2020, 07:49:01 AM »

I hate to pour cold water on this, but perhaps this shows how far the internal poll has to pump up Biden’s share of the electorate to make this House race look competitive.

Nearly every poll has had Biden up double digits here. I don't think you understand what type of seat this is. Trump will be uniquely toxic here.

*shrug* I grew up not too far from there. Lower Bucks is more downscale white suburbia that has not shifted as much as the more affluent suburbs in Upper Bucks (in this district) and elsewhere outside Philadelphia. This is a really huge swing.

Casey and Wolf both won PA-01 by these types of margins in 2018.

That may be, but do you think Biden will get Wolf’s margin of victory statewide?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #17 on: October 13, 2020, 08:08:01 AM »

I hate to pour cold water on this, but perhaps this shows how far the internal poll has to pump up Biden’s share of the electorate to make this House race look competitive.

Nearly every poll has had Biden up double digits here. I don't think you understand what type of seat this is. Trump will be uniquely toxic here.

*shrug* I grew up not too far from there. Lower Bucks is more downscale white suburbia that has not shifted as much as the more affluent suburbs in Upper Bucks (in this district) and elsewhere outside Philadelphia. This is a really huge swing.

Casey and Wolf both won PA-01 by these types of margins in 2018.

That may be, but do you think Biden will get Wolf’s margin of victory statewide?

No, but it's all regional. I think Biden will do better than Clinton but worse than Wolf in a lot of areas (mostly the rural areas) while Biden will probably stay close to Wolf though in the more affluent/educated/suburban areas.

Not to mention Bucks County saw its own 2019 blue wave as well, so I don't see this as really out of step.
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Gracile
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« Reply #18 on: October 13, 2020, 09:20:52 AM »

D internal so grains of salt obviously, but it's difficult to see how Trump could win Pennsylvania statewide with these kinds of shifts.
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