TX-10 - GBAO (D): Trump +1

[VAR]

Trump 48%
Biden 47%

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1MfUUi2Se0xAuFrQc25zYJEt3uHdT7XjgCng_o8kQAjg/edit

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Iirc Beto won this district in 2018 so if Biden isnt winning it that isnt good

[Devils30]

These places are a nightmare for pollsters.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Iirc Beto won this district in 2018 so if Biden isnt winning it that isnt good

Beto won it by 0.2%

[It’s so Joever]

Texas is safe R now.

[Bootes Void]

seems consistent with a Trump +2 in Texas

[DrScholl]

Iirc Beto won this district in 2018 so if Biden isnt winning it that isnt good

By like 0.19%, so at worst Biden is close to matching that.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 8-11
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Biden and Trump "were tied" in the previously survey (September 21-24).

[Gracile]

That's a bit more R than I would expect this district to vote given Beto's winning margin and the state of TX statewide (I expected Biden +2-3/left of the state - though that is within the margin of error of this poll).

[VAR]

It’s interesting that while TX-10 polls show a Trump +2-3 lead statewide, TX-03 polls indicate a Biden +2-3 lead.

[YE]

Texas is safe R now.

This is within the margin of error of Biden winning TX territory.

[lfromnj]

Iirc Beto won this district in 2018 so if Biden isnt winning it that isnt good

By like 0.19%, so at worst Biden is close to matching that.

Yeah but its an D internal so thats why he said its not that good.

[VAR]

I’d be shocked if Trump won this district, though.

[OSR stands with Israel]

TX is pretty clearly lean R , and I think polls will show the same in OH soon as well. TX needs a Clinton 1996 style win for the Dems to take it , and OH around the same(maybe a little less) and I dont think thats gonna happen.

I think Biden wins by around 5.7-6 points so TX, OH, and IA are Lean R and GA is Tilt R

[Gass3268]

Texas is safe R now.

It's literally not.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I don't know why a Dem would release this

[Gass3268]

I don't know why a Dem would release this

Siegel can use it raise money. "We are only 1-2 points behind!"

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I don't know why a Dem would release this

Siegel can use it raise money. "We are only 1-2 points behind!"

Yeah, but you have people like OSR who will run with any data point, even if it's within the margin of error and setting aside obvious Texas polling issues, to point out "HE'S DOING BETTER THAN CRUZ"

[Gracile]

I don't know why a Dem would release this

Siegel can use it raise money. "We are only 1-2 points behind!"

Yeah, but you have people like OSR who will run with any data point, even if it's within the margin of error and setting aside obvious Texas polling issues, to point out "HE'S DOING BETTER THAN CRUZ"

I mean those people will obviously be proven wrong if Biden wins Texas or comes extremely close, so it's all moot.

[VAR]

I don't know why a Dem would release this

Siegel can use it raise money. "We are only 1-2 points behind!"

Yeah, but you have people like OSR who will run with any data point, even if it's within the margin of error and setting aside obvious Texas polling issues, to point out "HE'S DOING BETTER THAN CRUZ"

Well, I don’t see why polling would underestimate Biden in this particular district (especially given this is an internal), and it’s possible that Biden is running up the margins elsewhere (e.g. TX-03, TX-21, and TX-24). OSR will be proven wrong anyway.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I don't know why a Dem would release this

Non-incumbent challengers are a bit less doomed in lower-profile races (especially not Senate/president races) if they're behind someone not known for being an incredibly formidable incumbent while the top of the ticket is ahead/only slightly behind. This is because a lot of their apparent underperformance which disappears by e-day is down to name recognition and undecided Biden/Trump voters are likely to break in favour of the Democratic/Republican candidate. In midterm years, take the same approach when comparing lagging challengers to a GCB for a given district.

For reference:
https://twitter.com/JudahFromTexas/status/1310628886221410307

[wbrocks67]

People acting as if polling in TX is finite and hasn't undersold Ds allover the place. Even if it is a D internal, we'll never forget TX-23 in 2018 when NYT/Siena said Ortiz Jones would lose by 15.