Sioux Falls, SD - Public Opinion Strategies/Paul TenHaken internal (R): Biden +6%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.dakotanewsnow.com/2020/10/09/new-poll-shows-positive-favorability-for-tenhaken-reveals-close-presidential-race-in-sioux-falls/

The poll is of adults.

Biden 48%
Trump 42%

[wbrocks67]

Do we know how they voted in 2016? The county itself voted Trump +14.

[Torrain]

The last three presidential cycles in Minnehaha, the county that contains most of Sioux Falls:

Year   Republican        Democratic        Third parties
2016  53.7% 42,043   39.1% 30,610     7.2% 5,610
2012  52.7% 40,342   45.3% 34,674     2.1% 1,567
2008  48.7% 39,251   49.5% 39,838     1.8% 1,463


I should note that the last Democrat to win a majority in the county was Dukakis, the only Dem to win a majority of the vote there in the past century.

If there's sufficient swing here to let Biden win the city by a couple of points, it'll be fascinating to see what the overall SD margin looks like, given that Sioux Falls contains around 30% of the state population. Dems have fallen from 44% of the statewide vote in 2008, to 31% in 2016, and I'll be interested to see where in that range Biden falls.

[Calthrina950]

The last three presidential cycles in Minnehaha, the county that contains most of Sioux Falls:

Year   Republican        Democratic        Third parties
2016  53.7% 42,043   39.1% 30,610     7.2% 5,610
2012  52.7% 40,342   45.3% 34,674     2.1% 1,567
2008  48.7% 39,251   49.5% 39,838     1.8% 1,463


I should note that the last Democrat to win a majority in the county was Dukakis, the only Dem to win a majority of the vote there in the past century.

If there's sufficient swing here to let Biden win the city by a couple of points, it'll be fascinating to see what the overall SD margin looks like, given that Sioux Falls contains around 30% of the state population. Dems have fallen from 44% of the statewide vote in 2008, to 31% in 2016, and I'll be interested to see where in that range Biden falls.

I think you forgot about Lyndon Johnson and Franklin D. Roosevelt. Dukakis is the only Democrat since Johnson in 1964 to win a majority in Minnehaha County, although Bill Clinton (twice) and Barack Obama (in 2008) carried it with pluralities.

[Torrain]

The last three presidential cycles in Minnehaha, the county that contains most of Sioux Falls:

Year   Republican        Democratic        Third parties
2016  53.7% 42,043   39.1% 30,610     7.2% 5,610
2012  52.7% 40,342   45.3% 34,674     2.1% 1,567
2008  48.7% 39,251   49.5% 39,838     1.8% 1,463


I should note that the last Democrat to win a majority in the county was Dukakis, the only Dem to win a majority of the vote there in the past century.

If there's sufficient swing here to let Biden win the city by a couple of points, it'll be fascinating to see what the overall SD margin looks like, given that Sioux Falls contains around 30% of the state population. Dems have fallen from 44% of the statewide vote in 2008, to 31% in 2016, and I'll be interested to see where in that range Biden falls.

I think you forgot about Lyndon Johnson and Franklin D. Roosevelt. Dukakis is the only Democrat since Johnson in 1964 to win a majority in Minnehaha County, although Bill Clinton (twice) and Barack Obama (in 2008) carried it with pluralities.

My bad, should have double checked before I hit submit

[Rand]

More evidence of a nationwide swing toward Biden (or away from Trump depending on how you look at it). If all the battlegrounds are immune from this swing Trump might still have a shot.

[Duke of York]

is this a poll of the county or just the city of Sioux falls?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

is this a poll of the county or just the city of Sioux falls?

just the city

[TheLaRocca]

Olds.

[DrScholl]

It was somewhere around 51-41 Trump, give or take a decimal because when I mapped it out of DRA the precincts encompass some outer areas that are outside of the city limits. Sutton carried it 54-44 in the 2018 gubernatorial.

[NOVA Green]

Do we know how they voted in 2016? The county itself voted Trump +14.

I did some work on Sioux Falls on this thread back on 9/6/20:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=386520.msg7562858#msg7562858

Here are the GE-PRES Results (Raw Votes) for the City of Sioux Falls from 2008 > 2016:



Here are the GE-PRES (% vote share)  2008 > 2016:



If this poll ends up being accurate, Biden has will actually have exceeded Obama '08 numbers, where the Senator from Illinois was an unusually strong candidate within the Upper Midwest "Grain Belt" States!

[Use Your Illusion]

Damn boy... my dad lives in Sioux Falls. Better ask him if he feels this is accurate