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October 23, 2020, 06:56:02 PM
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  Morning Consult: +8 nationally, lots of states
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Author Topic: Morning Consult: +8 nationally, lots of states  (Read 1058 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: October 13, 2020, 06:52:40 AM »

Nationally: Biden 51, Trump 43

Arizona: Biden 49, Trump 46
Colorado: Biden 54, Trump 40
Florida: Biden 51, Trump 46
Georgia: Trump 49, Biden 47
Michigan: Biden 51, Trump 44
Minnesota: Biden 50, Trump 44
North Carolina: Biden 50, Trump 46
Ohio: Trump 49, Biden 46
Pennsylvania: Biden 52, Trump 44
South Carolina: Trump 54, Biden 42
Texas: Trump 49, Biden 47
Wisconsin: Biden 51, Trump 44

https://morningconsult.com/form/2020-u-s-election-tracker/
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2020, 06:56:15 AM »

This is a strong and impressively consistent national margin for Biden and he's now matching his NPV share in Pennsylvania so it's also a very strong set of state polls in the EC for him (only a 1% disadvantage overall vs. 2.5% for Hillary).  And if any top tier swing state looks too close to call in the polls, Biden would certainly pick Arizona to be the one.

On the other hand, I guess this means we won't ever get state polls with Biden at Obama 2008 margins in the Midwest.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2020, 06:58:41 AM »

The only state here that seems wildly out of line is South Carolina, which makes sense since their Graham +6 poll also seemed out of line too. Though if Graham is running 6% behind Trump, and those Trump +6-ish other polls are correct...
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2020, 06:59:55 AM »

The only state here that seems wildly out of line is South Carolina, which makes sense since their Graham +6 poll also seemed out of line too. Though if Graham is running 6% behind Trump, and those Trump +6-ish other polls are correct...

Ehhh... unless Harrison is winning, it's actually better for Biden to be down a lot in states like SC.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2020, 07:11:02 AM »
« Edited: October 13, 2020, 07:21:27 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

October 2-11
Changes with August 29-Sepember 7 except where specified otherwise

A shame they didn't poll the MN Senate race.

AZ
1144 likely voters
MoE: 2.9%

Biden 49% (n/c)
Trump 46% (n/c)

CO
837 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%

Biden 54% (+5)
Trump 40% (-3)

FL
4785 likely voters
MoE: 1.4%

Biden 51% (+1)
Trump 46% (+3)

GA
1837 likely voters
MoE: 2.3%

Trump 49% (+1)
Biden 47% (+1)

MI
1710 likely voters
MoE: 2.4%

Biden 51% (-1)
Trump 44% (+2)

MN
898 likely voters
MoE: 3.3%
Second set of changes with September 4-13

Biden 50% (+1, +2)
Trump 44% (n/c, n/c)

NC
1993 likely voters
MoE: 2.2%

Biden 50% (+2)
Trump 46% (-1)

OH
2283 likely voters
MoE: 2.1%

Trump 49% (-1)
Biden 46% (+1)

PA
2610 likely voters
MoE: 1.9%

Biden 52% (+2)
Trump 44% (-1)

SC
903 likely voters
MoE: 3%
Second set of changes with September 11-20

Trump 54% (+1, +4)
Biden 42% (+1, -2)

TX
3455 likely voters
MoE: 1.7%

Trump 49% (+3)
Biden 47% (+1)
Undecided 3%

WI
1067 likely voters
MoE: 3%
Second set of changes with September 7-16

Biden 51% (n/c, n/c)
Trump 44% (+1, +2)

Edit: a focus on texas - https://morningconsult.com/2020/10/13/texas-senate-polling-john-cornyn-mj-hegar/
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2020, 07:12:52 AM »

I'll add them to the poll database.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2020, 07:15:13 AM »

New Poll: Arizona President by Morning Consult on 2020-10-11

Summary: D: 49%, R: 46%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2020, 07:17:23 AM »

New Poll: Colorado President by Morning Consult on 2020-10-11

Summary: D: 54%, R: 40%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2020, 07:19:02 AM »

New Poll: Florida President by Morning Consult on 2020-10-11

Summary: D: 51%, R: 46%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2020, 07:20:56 AM »

New Poll: Georgia President by Morning Consult on 2020-10-11

Summary: D: 47%, R: 49%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2020, 07:22:27 AM »

New Poll: Michigan President by Morning Consult on 2020-10-11

Summary: D: 51%, R: 44%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2020, 07:24:16 AM »

New Poll: Minnesota President by Morning Consult on 2020-10-11

Summary: D: 50%, R: 44%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2020, 07:25:57 AM »

New Poll: North Carolina President by Morning Consult on 2020-10-11

Summary: D: 50%, R: 46%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #13 on: October 13, 2020, 07:27:41 AM »

New Poll: Ohio President by Morning Consult on 2020-10-11

Summary: D: 46%, R: 49%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #14 on: October 13, 2020, 07:29:39 AM »

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Morning Consult on 2020-10-11

Summary: D: 52%, R: 44%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #15 on: October 13, 2020, 07:31:43 AM »

New Poll: South Carolina President by Morning Consult on 2020-10-11

Summary: D: 42%, R: 54%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #16 on: October 13, 2020, 07:33:26 AM »

New Poll: Texas President by Morning Consult on 2020-10-11

Summary: D: 47%, R: 49%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #17 on: October 13, 2020, 07:35:18 AM »

New Poll: Wisconsin President by Morning Consult on 2020-10-11

Summary: D: 51%, R: 44%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #18 on: October 13, 2020, 08:19:57 AM »

It appears Morning Consult thinks the R electorate is going to be massive in TX. Biden is winning Indies by *17%* and is still trailing by 2%.

Beto won them by 3 and lost by the same amount.

https://morningconsult.com/2020/10/13/texas-senate-polling-john-cornyn-mj-hegar/
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You Reap What You Sow
Rafe
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« Reply #19 on: October 13, 2020, 09:10:10 AM »

Fat, bandaged, coughing president canít even get 50% in many of the states he won four years ago. Truly pathetic.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #20 on: October 13, 2020, 09:12:40 AM »

HEGAR is done, she has been trailing in every poll by 6-9 pts and everyone said wait for the wave, well it's not happening
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Unbeatable Titan Gary Peters
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« Reply #21 on: October 13, 2020, 09:13:32 AM »

HEGAR is done, she has been trailing in every poll by 6-9 pts and everyone said wait for the wave, well it's not happening

Sad but true
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #22 on: October 13, 2020, 09:18:52 AM »

HEGAR is done, she has been trailing in every poll by 6-9 pts and everyone said wait for the wave, well it's not happening

Sad but true

there was literally just a poll that had Cornyn +1
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Buzz
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« Reply #23 on: October 13, 2020, 09:22:32 AM »

HEGAR is done, she has been trailing in every poll by 6-9 pts and everyone said wait for the wave, well it's not happening

Sad but true

there was literally just a poll that had Cornyn +1
Arenít you the poster thatís always talking about averages and not to look at just one poll?? Seems hypocritical
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #24 on: October 13, 2020, 10:18:00 AM »

HEGAR is done, she has been trailing in every poll by 6-9 pts and everyone said wait for the wave, well it's not happening

Sad but true

there was literally just a poll that had Cornyn +1
Arenít you the poster thatís always talking about averages and not to look at just one poll?? Seems hypocritical

How so? I'm simply pointing out that the statement "Hegar has been trailing in EVERY poll by 6-9 pts" is not correct.
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