IL-17 - Public Opinion Strategies (R): Bustos +6

[VAR]

Bustos 48%
King 42%

PRES: Biden 45-44

After trailing Cheri Bustos by double-digits in July, Esther Joy King is now just six points behind

https://www.congressionalleadershipfund.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/IL-CD-17-Key-Findings-Memo.pdf

[GALeftist]

Safe D

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 4-6
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Undecided 8%

The release states:

Eight percent (8 ) of voters remain undecided, and these voters lean Republican. Forty-one percent (41 ) of undecided voters are Republicans, 34  are Independents, and only 12  are Democrats.
These voters do not like Bustos (9  favorable/28  unfavorable) and are backing the President at the top of the ticket (47  Trump/19  Biden).

[VAR]

Another R internal showed Bustos up 5

[MT Treasurer]

Likely D this year (close to Safe), could be competitive in 2022. How easy is it to gerrymander Bustos into a Likely/Safe D district?

[lfromnj]

Likely D this year (close to Safe), could be competitive in 2022. How easy is it to gerrymander Bustos into a Likely/Safe D district?

Yeah just dump in Mcclean and strip out those rurals, Changes the trend from hard R in 2016 to very slight R.  Can't really get a true Safe D district downstate though.

[Water Hazard]

Likely D this year (close to Safe), could be competitive in 2022. How easy is it to gerrymander Bustos into a Likely/Safe D district?

You can get about Clinton+10 and not trending much if you snake from Rock Island to Champaign, though that would make it hard to draw another downstate D district. If you stick with the current Rockford/RI/Peoria configuration, it's pretty hard to make it much more D.

[lfromnj]

Likely D this year (close to Safe), could be competitive in 2022. How easy is it to gerrymander Bustos into a Likely/Safe D district?

You can get about Clinton+10 and not trending much if you snake from Rock Island to Champaign, though that would make it hard to draw another downstate D district. If you stick with the current Rockford/RI/Peoria configuration, it's pretty hard to make it much more D.

Well there are a bunch of rural counties that swung like 30 points right. Take 150k of those out and replace it with Mcclean county which swung 10 points left in 2016

[Gracile]

Hot take (?): IL-17 will be closer than IL-06 this cycle.

[S019]

Hot take (?): IL-17 will be closer than IL-06 this cycle.

Agreed for both House and President honestly, Trump and Jeanne Ives are both awful fits for the suburbs and Bustos will win comfortably, but I think her opponent is at least semi-serious. Also Trump probably does okay in this seat again, while the floor could honestly fall out in the 6th.

[jamestroll]

Hot take (?): IL-17 will be closer than IL-06 this cycle.

Yes of course it will. I even wonder if IL-14 will vote identically to IL-17 this year.

I would be worried about Bustos in 2022 but we shall see. I am not optimistic about Democrats in northwestern illinois at all.

[cvparty]

Hot take (?): IL-17 will be closer than IL-06 this cycle.

Yes of course it will. I even wonder if IL-14 will vote identically to IL-17 this year.

I would be worried about Bustos in 2022 but we shall see. I am not optimistic about Democrats in northeastern illinois at all.

[lfromnj]

Anyway he means NW IL, the best recruit for this seat for the GOP would be Neil Anderson right?

He currently represents the Rock Island state senate seat which voted for Clinton by 3 points I think and he survived 2018 by 2 points.

[jamestroll]

Hot take (?): IL-17 will be closer than IL-06 this cycle.

Yes of course it will. I even wonder if IL-14 will vote identically to IL-17 this year.

I would be worried about Bustos in 2022 but we shall see. I am not optimistic about Democrats in northeastern illinois at all.

oh my god.....

I meant northwestern illinois. I am about to have a heart attack about that mistake..

[Roll Roons]

Hot take (?): IL-17 will be closer than IL-06 this cycle.

Yes of course it will. I even wonder if IL-14 will vote identically to IL-17 this year.

I would be worried about Bustos in 2022 but we shall see. I am not optimistic about Democrats in northeastern illinois at all.

oh my god.....

I meant northwestern illinois. I am about to have a heart attack about that mistake..

I, for one, would be very happy if Democrats collapsed in northeastern Illinois! I'm sure the other R-IL avatars would feel the same way.