I hate to pour cold water on this, but perhaps this shows how far the internal poll has to pump up Biden’s share of the electorate to make this House race look competitive.
Nearly every poll has had Biden up double digits here. I don't think you understand what type of seat this is. Trump will be uniquely toxic here.
*shrug* I grew up not too far from there. Lower Bucks is more downscale white suburbia that has not shifted as much as the more affluent suburbs in Upper Bucks (in this district) and elsewhere outside Philadelphia. This is a really huge swing.
Casey and Wolf both won PA-01 by these types of margins in 2018.
That may be, but do you think Biden will get Wolf’s margin of victory statewide?
No, but it's all regional. I think Biden will do better than Clinton but worse than Wolf in a lot of areas (mostly the rural areas) while Biden will probably stay close to Wolf though in the more affluent/educated/suburban areas.
Not to mention Bucks County saw its own 2019 blue wave as well, so I don't see this as really out of step.
