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October 26, 2020, 10:35:35 PM

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections
  2020 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  WA GOV, LTGOV, AG, SoS - SurveyUSA/KING-TV: Dems and Wyman lead
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Author Topic: WA GOV, LTGOV, AG, SoS - SurveyUSA/KING-TV: Dems and Wyman lead  (Read 617 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
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« on: October 12, 2020, 08:14:09 PM »

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=544b4e4e-7820-4e83-b51a-41423dda3b8a

October 8-12
591 likely voters
MoE: 5.2%
Changes with July 22-27

GOV
Inslee (D) 54% (-7)
Culp (R) 40% (+8)
Undecided 6% (-1)

LTGOV
Heck (D) 31%
Liias (D) 18%
Undecided 52%

AG
Ferguson (D) 49%
Lark (R) 38%
Undecided 13%

SoS
Wyman (R) 45%
Tarleton (D) 40%
Undecided 14%
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Figueira
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« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2020, 08:24:42 PM »

I didn't even know Denny Heck was running for Lieutenant Governor.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2020, 08:28:01 PM »

Glad Wyman is ahead. Would have really sucked to see her lose solely because of party affiliation.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2020, 08:37:13 PM »

New Poll: Washington Governor by Survey USA on 2020-10-12

Summary: D: 54%, R: 40%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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FalterinArc
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« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2020, 08:39:23 PM »

Inslee is going to win but it's still concerning to see Culp improving. This state can honestly go to hell if it votes for Culp. Also wish they polled the Superintendent of Public Instruction election. If Espinoza wins my school is going to go to sh**t.
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« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2020, 09:50:44 PM »

I doubt the race has changed that much, but Inslee +14 is believable. Wyman is somewhat favored, but itís not impossible that she loses. She will be the only statewide elected Republican if she does win, though.
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Hardcore Sen. Peters/Daines/Cornyn/Perdue supporter
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« Reply #6 on: October 12, 2020, 09:58:37 PM »

45% really isnít reassuring for Wyman...
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2020, 12:07:07 AM »

Glad Wyman is ahead. Would have really sucked to see her lose solely because of party affiliation.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2020, 09:26:07 AM »

If Wyman runs, she will run against Murray in 2022.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2020, 09:30:50 AM »

If Wyman runs, she will run against Murray in 2022.

Wouldn't she prefer a more reliable House seat or a run at the governor's mansion? Even if you don't think WA is titanium D at the Senatorial level, it's an incredibly steep climb.
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« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2020, 09:51:22 AM »

If Wyman runs, she will run against Murray in 2022.

Wouldn't she prefer a more reliable House seat or a run at the governor's mansion? Even if you don't think WA is titanium D at the Senatorial level, it's an incredibly steep climb.

I would doubt sheís interested in a Senate run. I think itís more likely she runs for Governor if Inslee retires in 2024. She would have absolutely no chance in a Senate race, even in a Republican wave.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2020, 11:17:46 AM »

So many undecideds in the Lt. Gov. race. Any chance Freed can somehow get his write-in miracle with Democrats divided, or am I just being a worrywart?
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Canis
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« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2020, 12:25:17 PM »

If Wyman runs, she will run against Murray in 2022.

Wouldn't she prefer a more reliable House seat or a run at the governor's mansion? Even if you don't think WA is titanium D at the Senatorial level, it's an incredibly steep climb.
Yeah Wyman would stand no chance at winning a statewide federal race but she could win a house seat and she would stand a chance at winning the governorship if the Dem was a bad candidate
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Figueira
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« Reply #13 on: October 14, 2020, 07:47:48 PM »

Why is Wyman so great?
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FalterinArc
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« Reply #14 on: October 14, 2020, 07:53:43 PM »

She's not
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #15 on: October 14, 2020, 07:54:13 PM »


Washington elections are very well-run. She is also known as extremely competent and non-ideological, which allows her to win a significant amount of crossover support. In 2016, she won by 10 as Trump lost the state by 16.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #16 on: October 14, 2020, 10:13:11 PM »


Washington elections are very well-run. She is also known as extremely competent and non-ideological, which allows her to win a significant amount of crossover support. In 2016, she won by 10 as Trump lost the state by 16.

Hopefully Wyman manages to win reelection. Polarization should not be allowed to wipe away opposing-party incumbents who are noncontroversial, enjoy high approval ratings, and do well in their positions. Likewise, I hope that West Virginia's Democratic State Treasurer Perdue wins reelection, and the polls indicate that he's favored.

Sadly, my home state of Colorado isn't so inclined to split tickets anymore. In 2018, I voted for every statewide Democrat except for one: Jena Griswold, who is Secretary of State here (and therefore a colleague of Wyman's). Her Republican predecessor, Wayne Williams, was very competent and noncontroversial, but he could not withstand the Democratic wave here. Of course, I don't have a problem with Griswold, and she has been just as competent and effective as Williams was. But I still would have liked for Colorado to have at least one Republican statewide row officer, so that they wouldn't be completely shut out.
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Clinton/Newsom/Straight Ticket D 2018 voter for Mike Garcia
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« Reply #17 on: October 14, 2020, 10:52:00 PM »


Washington elections are very well-run. She is also known as extremely competent and non-ideological, which allows her to win a significant amount of crossover support. In 2016, she won by 10 as Trump lost the state by 16.

Hopefully Wyman manages to win reelection. Polarization should not be allowed to wipe away opposing-party incumbents who are noncontroversial, enjoy high approval ratings, and do well in their positions. Likewise, I hope that West Virginia's Democratic State Treasurer Perdue wins reelection, and the polls indicate that he's favored.

Sadly, my home state of Colorado isn't so inclined to split tickets anymore. In 2018, I voted for every statewide Democrat except for one: Jena Griswold, who is Secretary of State here (and therefore a colleague of Wyman's). Her Republican predecessor, Wayne Williams, was very competent and noncontroversial, but he could not withstand the Democratic wave here. Of course, I don't have a problem with Griswold, and she has been just as competent and effective as Williams was. But I still would have liked for Colorado to have at least one Republican statewide row officer, so that they wouldn't be completely shut out.

I think Wyman is probably narrowly favored, on the other hand, I think Purdue is going to go down, WV has just gradually become more and more hostile for Democrats, and I don't think he'll survive Trump winning WV by 30+ points.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #18 on: October 14, 2020, 10:55:29 PM »


Washington elections are very well-run. She is also known as extremely competent and non-ideological, which allows her to win a significant amount of crossover support. In 2016, she won by 10 as Trump lost the state by 16.

Hopefully Wyman manages to win reelection. Polarization should not be allowed to wipe away opposing-party incumbents who are noncontroversial, enjoy high approval ratings, and do well in their positions. Likewise, I hope that West Virginia's Democratic State Treasurer Perdue wins reelection, and the polls indicate that he's favored.

Sadly, my home state of Colorado isn't so inclined to split tickets anymore. In 2018, I voted for every statewide Democrat except for one: Jena Griswold, who is Secretary of State here (and therefore a colleague of Wyman's). Her Republican predecessor, Wayne Williams, was very competent and noncontroversial, but he could not withstand the Democratic wave here. Of course, I don't have a problem with Griswold, and she has been just as competent and effective as Williams was. But I still would have liked for Colorado to have at least one Republican statewide row officer, so that they wouldn't be completely shut out.

I think Wyman is probably narrowly favored, on the other hand, I think Purdue is going to go down, WV has just gradually become more and more hostile for Democrats, and I don't think he'll survive Trump winning WV by 30+ points.

Perdue did win in 2016 as Trump carried the state by 42, and his victory margin in the state is likely to shrink quite a bit. Plus West Virginia has a lot of ticket splitting, as there are a lot of Democratic legislators who still hold very Trump-friendly districts.
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FalterinArc
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« Reply #19 on: October 14, 2020, 11:51:21 PM »

Hereís how I would rate statewide offices:

Governor: Safe D

Lieutenant Governor: Lean Heck

Attorney General: Safe D

Public Lands: Safe D

Insurance Commissioner: Safe D

State Auditor: Likely D

Superintendent of Public Instruction: Lean D

State Treasurer: Likely D

Secretary of State: Lean R
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xingkerui
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« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2020, 12:33:43 PM »

Hereís how I would rate statewide offices:

Governor: Safe D

Lieutenant Governor: Lean Heck

Attorney General: Safe D

Public Lands: Safe D

Insurance Commissioner: Safe D

State Auditor: Likely D

Superintendent of Public Instruction: Lean D

State Treasurer: Likely D

Secretary of State: Lean R

Iíd agree with most of these, but Iíd say Safe D for Auditor and Treasurer, and Likely Heck for Lt. Governor.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #21 on: October 18, 2020, 12:49:03 PM »

Hereís how I would rate statewide offices:

Governor: Safe D

Lieutenant Governor: Lean Heck

Attorney General: Safe D

Public Lands: Safe D

Insurance Commissioner: Safe D

State Auditor: Likely D

Superintendent of Public Instruction: Lean D

State Treasurer: Likely D

Secretary of State: Lean R

Iíd agree with most of these, but Iíd say Safe D for Auditor and Treasurer, and Likely Heck for Lt. Governor.

Safe D for treasurer? Is the incumbent really that bad?
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xingkerui
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« Reply #22 on: October 18, 2020, 12:52:13 PM »

Hereís how I would rate statewide offices:

Governor: Safe D

Lieutenant Governor: Lean Heck

Attorney General: Safe D

Public Lands: Safe D

Insurance Commissioner: Safe D

State Auditor: Likely D

Superintendent of Public Instruction: Lean D

State Treasurer: Likely D

Secretary of State: Lean R

Iíd agree with most of these, but Iíd say Safe D for Auditor and Treasurer, and Likely Heck for Lt. Governor.

Safe D for treasurer? Is the incumbent really that bad?

No, but heís a Republican, and hasnít built up the same image/reputation Wyman has.
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