Hypothetical Massachussetts 2014 Senate Election

[Annihilation]

Okay so Obama had choses John Kerry for secretary of state, Kerry resigns which triggers a special election in Fall 2009. Scott Brown and Martha Coakley are the nominees in that election and Scott Brwon narrowly pulls it out as in OTL. Mike Capuano picks up Ted Kennedy's seat in February. Then in 2014 Scott Brown is facing off against Elizabeth Warren. Would the national enviornment that year be enough for him to win again?

[NewYorkExpress]

Given it's an R wave, and Warren consistently underperforms other Democrats in Massachusetts, I think Brown narrowly wins.

Scott Brown (R) 49.96%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 49.87%

[Alben Barkley]

Given it's an R wave, and Warren consistently underperforms other Democrats in Massachusetts, I think Brown narrowly wins.

Scott Brown (R) 49.96%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 49.87%

Markey got 62% of the vote and won every county in the actual 2014 election.

I don't think she would have lost. Nationally it might have been a Republican wave year, but Massachusetts seemed to be pretty much immune to that. You might say that an incumbent Scott Brown would be stronger, but still, I doubt after having him there for a few years that most Massachussetts residents would still want a Republican in that seat. Warren is certainly a stronger candidate than Coakley, anyway, and 2014 was a slightly less Republican year overall than 2010. (More Senate seats were picked up but that had more to do with the map; their House vote margin was smaller). So if Coakley barely lost in 2010, I imagine in 2014 Warren would win.