SurveyUSA: Cunningham +10

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Moving stuff over from the other thread:

https://wwwcache.wral.com/asset/news/state/nccapitol/2020/10/12/19332468/PollPrint-DMID1-5ohw9o5y4.pdf

For WRAL-TV
October 8-11
669 (!) historically sexy likely voters
MoE: 4.8%
Changes with September 10-13 poll

Cunningham 49% (+2)
Tillis 39% (-1)
Some other candidate 3% (n/c from "Another candidate" at 3%)
Undecided 8% (-2)

WE MAY YET LIVE IN HISTORICALLY SEXY TIMES

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I didn't think the Leaked Sexts bump would be this large but it figures given that we're now out of No Simp September. If Cunningham sets up an OnlyFans, this race moves to safe D

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1315753109310902272?s=21

P O P U L I S M

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1315753109310902272?s=21

Yeah, Nate, let's overanalyze a crappy SUSA poll's crosstabs.

SUSA is decent

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Cunningham got a sexting bump. did they poll presidential as well?

Yes. Apparently they're releasing more NC results within the next 48 hours.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Lol this is going to be to NC what the body slam was to MT

Did the bodyslam actually help Gianforte lol?

Suffice it to say that the lowest common denominator isn’t a phenomenon unique to NC.

(FTR, I think this poll is BS, but I could see this "scandal" having a similar "effect" on the race, with overreactions and predictions of said politician's downfall being out of all proportion with actual reality as few voters' minds were truly changed).

I was willing to dismiss this as an outlier too and am not going to be too confident about it all for a while yet, but there's this to consider:

https://twitter.com/SeanMcElwee/status/1315760511691218949
It's plausible that the name ID boost from the scandal more than outweighs the already in-the-know voters switching their preference on the basis of it.