NJ-02 (Monmouth): Kennedy +6

[NewYorkExpress]

My guess is Kennedy, knowing she'd lose in 2022, retires after one term and runs for the open Governor's mansion in 2025.

[MT Treasurer]

Damn, Kennedy has been really impressive so far.

Is it because she's a good candidate, or are people wary of Van Drew for the party switch... or perhaps both?

Could it be because Biden is leading by 5 points in the district?

I mean, Kennedy is outperforming him here.

Biden 50%, Kennedy 50%
Trump 45%, Van Drew 44%

What a dramatic difference.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Haha, TIL she actually is a member of the Kennedy family, albeit through marriage and not blood.

I guess this would mean that since the 1950s, Congress has had at least one member of the Kennedy family in either House save for a few years after JFK's election to the presidency? Which will only continue assuming she trounces Van Drew.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Damn, Kennedy has been really impressive so far.

Is it because she's a good candidate, or are people wary of Van Drew for the party switch... or perhaps both?

Could it be because Biden is leading by 5 points in the district?

I mean, Kennedy is outperforming him here.

Biden 50%, Kennedy 50%
Trump 45%, Van Drew 44%

What a dramatic difference.

I mean, Kennedy is outperforming him here.

[LabourJersey]

Van Drew really didn't think when he switched.  He'd be in a Lean/Likely D race if he didn't switch.

He'd have lost his primary.

No, he wouldn't have. New Jersey is dominated by machines who would have likely protected him. I wouldn't be surprised if Kennedy wins and then gets beaten by either Chris Brown or Mike Testa in 2022.

That's fair. Redistricting in 2022 is going to be tricky, but if Kennedy wins next month she'll start out as the most vulnerable incumbent in NJ.

My guess is that Malinowski will go into Biden's State Dept., and they will create a GOP district in the northwest part of the state, taking in conservative areas of NJ-7, NJ-11 and maybe NJ-5. Sherill will get the Union County parts of NJ-7 to make her more safe. Kim's district is kind of a wild card but he would also be very vulnerable in 2022 unless he gets a much more Democratic district, which I don't see happening cause of South Jersey geography

Makes sense, maybe give Sherill a lot of blue trending Somerset County and make NJ-11 Safe D.

Also a possibility. Though I think the Commission will have to include a lot of Democratic trending areas if they want to make a Lean/Likely R seat in Hunterdon/Warren/Sussex/Morris

[Meatball Ron]

Haha, TIL she actually is a member of the Kennedy family, albeit through marriage and not blood.

I guess this would mean that since the 1950s, Congress has had at least one member of the Kennedy family in either House save for a few years after JFK's election to the presidency? Which will only continue assuming she trounces Van Drew.

Nope, no Kennedy between Jan 2011 and Jan 2013 (after Patrick Kennedy left office, before JKIII took office). If Amy does lose in November, Jan 2021 will be the second time since 1947.

[Left Wing]

Haha, TIL she actually is a member of the Kennedy family, albeit through marriage and not blood.

I guess this would mean that since the 1950s, Congress has had at least one member of the Kennedy family in either House save for a few years after JFK's election to the presidency? Which will only continue assuming she trounces Van Drew.

Nope, no Kennedy between Jan 2011 and Jan 2013 (after Patrick Kennedy left office, before JKIII took office). If Amy does lose in November, Jan 2021 will be the second time since 1947.

It would however, be the first time no Kennedy is in office or elected to any office since 1946

[Meatball Ron]

Haha, TIL she actually is a member of the Kennedy family, albeit through marriage and not blood.

I guess this would mean that since the 1950s, Congress has had at least one member of the Kennedy family in either House save for a few years after JFK's election to the presidency? Which will only continue assuming she trounces Van Drew.

Nope, no Kennedy between Jan 2011 and Jan 2013 (after Patrick Kennedy left office, before JKIII took office). If Amy does lose in November, Jan 2021 will be the second time since 1947.

It would however, be the first time no Kennedy is in office or elected to any office since 1946

Who was in office from Jan '11 - Jan '13?

[Left Wing]

Haha, TIL she actually is a member of the Kennedy family, albeit through marriage and not blood.

I guess this would mean that since the 1950s, Congress has had at least one member of the Kennedy family in either House save for a few years after JFK's election to the presidency? Which will only continue assuming she trounces Van Drew.

Nope, no Kennedy between Jan 2011 and Jan 2013 (after Patrick Kennedy left office, before JKIII took office). If Amy does lose in November, Jan 2021 will be the second time since 1947.

It would however, be the first time no Kennedy is in office or elected to any office since 1946

Who was in office from Jan '11 - Jan '13?

Bobby Shriver

[MillennialModerate]

LOVE this. LOVE.

Hopefully some day....

Senator Kennedy of Massachusetts
Senator Kennedy of New Jersey

And then maybe....
Representative Schlossberg from Connecticut
Senator Shriver from California
Representative Kennedy-Cuomo from New York.

The dream shall never die.

[GALeftist]

LOVE this. LOVE.

Hopefully some day....

Senator Kennedy of Massachusetts
Senator Kennedy of New Jersey

And then maybe....
Representative Schlossberg from Connecticut
Senator Shriver from California
Representative Kennedy-Cuomo from New York.

The dream shall never die.

What no senate seat does to a man

[Meatball Ron]

Haha, TIL she actually is a member of the Kennedy family, albeit through marriage and not blood.

I guess this would mean that since the 1950s, Congress has had at least one member of the Kennedy family in either House save for a few years after JFK's election to the presidency? Which will only continue assuming she trounces Van Drew.

Nope, no Kennedy between Jan 2011 and Jan 2013 (after Patrick Kennedy left office, before JKIII took office). If Amy does lose in November, Jan 2021 will be the second time since 1947.

It would however, be the first time no Kennedy is in office or elected to any office since 1946

Who was in office from Jan '11 - Jan '13?

Bobby Shriver

Reach

[LabourJersey]

LOVE this. LOVE.

Hopefully some day....

Senator Kennedy of Massachusetts
Senator Kennedy of New Jersey

And then maybe....
Representative Schlossberg from Connecticut
Senator Shriver from California
Representative Kennedy-Cuomo from New York.

The dream shall never die.

The next senator from NJ is going to be Mikie Sherill in 2024. Maybe earlier if Booker ends up in Biden's cabinet.

South Jersey Democrats are at a disadvantage in primaries because the center of gravity, so to speak, of the NJ Democratic electorate skews toward the central and northern parts of the state. Kennedy would have name recognition, for sure, but she'd have to make a lot of inroads with the north Jersey crowd to get anywhere.

[Calthrina950]

Haha, TIL she actually is a member of the Kennedy family, albeit through marriage and not blood.

I guess this would mean that since the 1950s, Congress has had at least one member of the Kennedy family in either House save for a few years after JFK's election to the presidency? Which will only continue assuming she trounces Van Drew.

Nope, no Kennedy between Jan 2011 and Jan 2013 (after Patrick Kennedy left office, before JKIII took office). If Amy does lose in November, Jan 2021 will be the second time since 1947.

It would however, be the first time no Kennedy is in office or elected to any office since 1946

Who was in office from Jan '11 - Jan '13?

Bobby Shriver

Reach

Not in my opinion. He is Eunice Kennedy-Shriver's son, and therefore a grandson of Joseph Kennedy Sr. Amy Kennedy, on the other hand, is a member of the family by marriage.

[Meatball Ron]

Haha, TIL she actually is a member of the Kennedy family, albeit through marriage and not blood.

I guess this would mean that since the 1950s, Congress has had at least one member of the Kennedy family in either House save for a few years after JFK's election to the presidency? Which will only continue assuming she trounces Van Drew.

Nope, no Kennedy between Jan 2011 and Jan 2013 (after Patrick Kennedy left office, before JKIII took office). If Amy does lose in November, Jan 2021 will be the second time since 1947.

It would however, be the first time no Kennedy is in office or elected to any office since 1946

Who was in office from Jan '11 - Jan '13?

Bobby Shriver

Reach

Not in my opinion. He is Eunice Kennedy-Schriver's son, and therefore a grandson of Joseph Kennedy Sr. Amy Kennedy, on the other hand, is a member of the family by marriage.

Fair. I guess I meant the "in office" part was more of a reach than the "Kennedy" part. Santa Monica has 90k people and its City Council meets two days out of every month. For all we know there are lots of other random Kennedys out there in that capacity.

[Calthrina950]

Haha, TIL she actually is a member of the Kennedy family, albeit through marriage and not blood.

I guess this would mean that since the 1950s, Congress has had at least one member of the Kennedy family in either House save for a few years after JFK's election to the presidency? Which will only continue assuming she trounces Van Drew.

Nope, no Kennedy between Jan 2011 and Jan 2013 (after Patrick Kennedy left office, before JKIII took office). If Amy does lose in November, Jan 2021 will be the second time since 1947.

It would however, be the first time no Kennedy is in office or elected to any office since 1946

Who was in office from Jan '11 - Jan '13?

Bobby Shriver

Reach

Not in my opinion. He is Eunice Kennedy-Shriver's son, and therefore a grandson of Joseph Kennedy Sr. Amy Kennedy, on the other hand, is a member of the family by marriage.

Fair. I guess I meant the "in office" part was more of a reach than the "Kennedy" part. Santa Monica has 90k people and its City Council meets two days out of every month. For all we know there are lots of other random Kennedys out there in that capacity.

You're right, and there was a brief period of time, between December 2012 and January 2013 (it's uncertain exactly how long), from when Bobby Shriver left office to the time that Joseph Kennedy III was sworn into the House. It's safe to assume that there were no Kennedys in political office during that brief period.

[Left Wing]

Haha, TIL she actually is a member of the Kennedy family, albeit through marriage and not blood.

I guess this would mean that since the 1950s, Congress has had at least one member of the Kennedy family in either House save for a few years after JFK's election to the presidency? Which will only continue assuming she trounces Van Drew.

Nope, no Kennedy between Jan 2011 and Jan 2013 (after Patrick Kennedy left office, before JKIII took office). If Amy does lose in November, Jan 2021 will be the second time since 1947.

It would however, be the first time no Kennedy is in office or elected to any office since 1946

Who was in office from Jan '11 - Jan '13?

Bobby Shriver

Reach

Not in my opinion. He is Eunice Kennedy-Shriver's son, and therefore a grandson of Joseph Kennedy Sr. Amy Kennedy, on the other hand, is a member of the family by marriage.

Fair. I guess I meant the "in office" part was more of a reach than the "Kennedy" part. Santa Monica has 90k people and its City Council meets two days out of every month. For all we know there are lots of other random Kennedys out there in that capacity.

You're right, and there was a brief period of time, between December 2012 and January 2013 (it's uncertain exactly how long), from when Bobby Shriver left office to the time that Joseph Kennedy III was sworn into the House. It's safe to assume that there were no Kennedys in political office during that brief period.

That was why I said "or elected to any office." Joe was already representative-elect when Shriver left office.

[Ferguson97]

The next senator from NJ is going to be Mikie Sherill in 2024. Maybe earlier if Booker ends up in Biden's cabinet.

It'll be me. I'm gonna primary Menendez in 2030. /s

[Calthrina950]

Haha, TIL she actually is a member of the Kennedy family, albeit through marriage and not blood.

I guess this would mean that since the 1950s, Congress has had at least one member of the Kennedy family in either House save for a few years after JFK's election to the presidency? Which will only continue assuming she trounces Van Drew.

Nope, no Kennedy between Jan 2011 and Jan 2013 (after Patrick Kennedy left office, before JKIII took office). If Amy does lose in November, Jan 2021 will be the second time since 1947.

It would however, be the first time no Kennedy is in office or elected to any office since 1946

Who was in office from Jan '11 - Jan '13?

Bobby Shriver

Reach

Not in my opinion. He is Eunice Kennedy-Shriver's son, and therefore a grandson of Joseph Kennedy Sr. Amy Kennedy, on the other hand, is a member of the family by marriage.

Fair. I guess I meant the "in office" part was more of a reach than the "Kennedy" part. Santa Monica has 90k people and its City Council meets two days out of every month. For all we know there are lots of other random Kennedys out there in that capacity.

You're right, and there was a brief period of time, between December 2012 and January 2013 (it's uncertain exactly how long), from when Bobby Shriver left office to the time that Joseph Kennedy III was sworn into the House. It's safe to assume that there were no Kennedys in political office during that brief period.

That was why I said "or elected to any office." Joe was already representative-elect when Shriver left office.

I didn't catch that; I was responding to RecoveringDem's post. But you're correct about that as well.

[WD]

The next senator from NJ is going to be Mikie Sherill in 2024. Maybe earlier if Booker ends up in Biden's cabinet.

It'll be me. I'm gonna primary Menendez in 2030. /s

Endorsed.

[Xing]

LOVE this. LOVE.

Hopefully some day....

Senator Kennedy of Massachusetts
Senator Kennedy of New Jersey

And then maybe....
Representative Schlossberg from Connecticut
Senator Shriver from California
Representative Kennedy-Cuomo from New York.

The dream shall never die.

Ok Joe III

[LabourJersey]

The next senator from NJ is going to be Mikie Sherill in 2024. Maybe earlier if Booker ends up in Biden's cabinet.

It'll be me. I'm gonna primary Menendez in 2030. /s

If Menendez is unpopular as he is now you'll pull off an upset for sure

[Roll Roons]

The next senator from NJ is going to be Mikie Sherill in 2024. Maybe earlier if Booker ends up in Biden's cabinet.

It'll be me. I'm gonna primary Menendez in 2030. /s

If Menendez is unpopular as he is now you'll pull off an upset for sure

No matter what, I think Menendez will be forced out in 2024 just like Dodd and Bunning were in 2010.

[Suburbia]

Malinowski may be Secy. of State or something, win or lose

Tom Kean would be his replacement

Kean could use that seat as a springboard to a veep position to moderate a Hawley or a Haley and bring back the Jennifer Rubins of the world.

But Rubin wants to destroy the GOP root from root.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Malinowski may be Secy. of State or something, win or lose

Tom Kean would be his replacement

Kean could use that seat as a springboard to a veep position to moderate a Hawley or a Haley and bring back the Jennifer Rubins of the world.

But Rubin wants to destroy the GOP root from root.

Good! This party is unsalvageable and Haley or Hawley would do nothing to help it.