MI-NYT/Siena: Peters +1

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I'll move this one back to lean D, but the poll means less than it should for reasons other posters here have alluded to (I wish they would push leaners).

October 6-11
614 likely voters
MoE: 4.6%

Peters 43%
James 42%
Not voting for Senate 1%
Squier (G) 1%
Dern (Natural Law) 0%
Willis (Taxpayers) 0%
Someone else 0%
Don't know/Refused 13%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

A lot of undecided African American voters. I think they will break for James.

Why? I've written this elsewhere but his overperformance with them last time was much smaller than with other demographics and I've not seen a decent pitch for why he'd be significantly more appealing to black voters specifically this time around (relative to other MI voters, that is).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

A lot of undecided African American voters. I think they will break for James.

Why? I've written this elsewhere but his overperformance with them last time was much smaller than with other demographics and I've not seen a decent pitch for why he'd be significantly more appealing to black voters specifically this time around (relative to other MI voters, that is).

Why would they be undecided this late in the game? A lot less AAs are undecided in the Trump-Biden matchup.

This is a fairly common phenomenon when it comes to downballot races. It has borne out in several previous cycles and is also noticeable in others (Cornyn v.s. Hegar w.r.t. Biden-leaning non-white voters, for instance). Particularly with respect to a voting bloc not especially renowned for its ticket-splitting, this should be considered to be partly a function of name recognition which mostly disappears on election day.