MI-NYT/Siena: Peters +1

[wbrocks67]

WAKE THE F#CK UP GARY

To be fair, Peters has had to quarantine bc he was around people with COVID

[Roll Roons]

Here's an underrated possibility - more and more voters think Biden will win, so they're more comfortable voting for downballot Republicans since they're less likely to enable Trump.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Here's an underrated possibility - more and more voters think Biden will win, so they're more comfortable voting for downballot Republicans since they're less likely to enable Trump.

I don’t think this is the case at all. Literally talk to anyone who doesn’t follow politics closely and nearly everyone, no matter their ideology, is convinced Trump will win again.

[SevenEleven]

Here's an underrated possibility - more and more voters think Biden will win, so they're more comfortable voting for downballot Republicans since they're less likely to enable Trump.

Or it's a sh**t poll. Hmm.

[Badger]

I’d be more concerned if it was Peters 49-48. James at 42% isn’t really that good for him, considering the undecideds skew democratic.

Yes. Still, I hope he recovers soon enough that the dscc doesn't actually start spending serious money there to protect him

[Xing]

Here's an underrated possibility - more and more voters think Biden will win, so they're more comfortable voting for downballot Republicans since they're less likely to enable Trump.

[citation needed]

Either way, I don't doubt that there are some Biden/Republican downballot voters, though I don't think they'll make up a significant portion of the electorate, and in most competitive races won't significantly outnumber Trump/Democrat downballot voters (and in some races, there could be more of these voters.)

[Roll Roons]

Here's an underrated possibility - more and more voters think Biden will win, so they're more comfortable voting for downballot Republicans since they're less likely to enable Trump.

[citation needed]

Either way, I don't doubt that there are some Biden/Republican downballot voters, though I don't think they'll make up a significant portion of the electorate, and in most competitive races won't significantly outnumber Trump/Democrat downballot voters (and in some races, there could be more of these voters.)

Can't really enable Trump if he's not in office.

[WD]

Here's an underrated possibility - more and more voters think Biden will win, so they're more comfortable voting for downballot Republicans since they're less likely to enable Trump.

I don’t think this is the case at all. Literally talk to anyone who doesn’t follow politics closely and nearly everyone, no matter their ideology, is convinced Trump will win again.

A solid 30% of Atlas Democrats think Trump is destined to overperform his polling by 8-9 points no matter what.

[wbrocks67]

Here's an underrated possibility - more and more voters think Biden will win, so they're more comfortable voting for downballot Republicans since they're less likely to enable Trump.

Or it's a sh**t poll. Hmm.

It definitely oversampled Republicans. Trump's approval is only -5 and take 18-29 year olds for example, Biden only winning by 10 - and Peters even less.

[KaiserDave]

Here's an underrated possibility - more and more voters think Biden will win, so they're more comfortable voting for downballot Republicans since they're less likely to enable Trump.

Strong disagree. Anecdotally, most people I talk to are convinced Trump will win, the less politically educated the more so.

Polling shows this too

[LabourJersey]

Here's an underrated possibility - more and more voters think Biden will win, so they're more comfortable voting for downballot Republicans since they're less likely to enable Trump.

Strong disagree. Anecdotally, most people I talk to are convinced Trump will win, the less politically educated the more so.

Polling shows this too

Yeah I've found the same thing. There's nowhere near the complacency that I saw and felt in 2016 about the race. Lots of people don't believe the polls and are motivated to vote because of it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

does Siena have a house effect?

[It’s so Joever]

[GALeftist]

This many undecideds is bonkers. Everyone chill tf out

[Orser67]

Back to Lean D you go

[jamestroll]

Ernst and Peters are not taking their re-election campaigns seriously. One thinks she is running in Nebraska and the other think he is running in Illinois.

One or both of them losing on November 3rd would not be a shocker.

[SnowLabrador]

I think that Gary Peters will be Bill Nelson 2.0.

[SenatorCouzens]

There is truth to the "invisible man" critique of Peters -- he isn't much of a known quantity in Michigan.

James has a lot of money and runs decent ads. James is more charismatic than Peters, and much more telegenic than Peters.

Michigan is politically divided and, looking at various races the last several decades, not particularly devoted to the Democratic party.

That being said, I don't see how James overcomes the national environment. If this was 2016, I believe he would win.

If Trump pulls it together and turns the presidential race into a 4 point race or so, then I will be looking very closely at this race.

[Gass3268]

This poll is going to be excellent for Peters' fundraising. Twitter is going nuts the past few hours rallying people to donate to his campaign.

[GALeftist]

You know, there's a lot of talk about what could happen between now and election day, and I'd just like to point out that we're three weeks out atm. Realistically, one or both candidates could do an ad blitz, but that will help basically only with name recognition. I doubt there's much more time for the overall political environment to shift all that much.

[SenatorCouzens]

This poll is going to be excellent for Peters' fundraising. Twitter is going nuts the past few hours rallying people to donate to his campaign.

Admittedly I don't know what the hard numbers look like, but I do not believe Peters (unlike other potentially endangered incumbents *cough cough* Lindsey Graham) has a problem with money.

TV and radio are pretty well saturated with James and Peters ads and have been for some time.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Did James get a kidnapping plot bump!?

But seriously though:

This many undecideds is bonkers. Everyone chill tf out

Furthermore:

James will still lose. Peters' win may end up being unimpressive, but I don't see how he loses to a retread candidate while actually taking his race serious in a favorable environment with likely higher turnout. If Stabenow won against him while essentially taking her race for granted, Peters should be fine. Don't put so much emphasis on that Siena poll with so many undecideds.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not saying Peter's will lose but Pelosi holding out on the Stimulus may hurt Rust belt D's like Peters.  Pelosi all or nothing bill doesn't help anybody but the Unions she protect, and in Cali, we know she is a Union boss

[SenatorCouzens]

I guess Michigan is full of PQG split-voters?

Huh.   Who knew?

Would you vote for James if you lived in MI?

Probably, yes -- I've never voted for a Democratic Senate candidate.  My ideal scenario is a Biden presidency with a GOP Senate.  

GOP Senate and Biden presidency is an under-rated best case scenario for Republicans. It stops any Biden legislation, especially more extreme policies like attempting to expanding the size of the Supreme Court (I believe this fails regardless) or adding states (I believe this could happen). It would also force deals on filling lower court vacancies or a Supreme Court opening and keep the judiciary conservative.

Also, it rids the party of an increasingly toxic Trump and sets the GOP up for a good 2022 midterm.

The path to a GOP Senate and Biden presidency is very narrow, but it's possible and an interesting result. However, I think it's just as probable that the dam breaks and several GOP incumbents go down and give the Dems a large Senate majority.

[One Term Floridian]

The presidential poll has Biden +8 and this has Peters +1 with a crap ton of undecideds. I'm thinking this might be trash...