MI-NYT/Siena: Peters +1
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  MI-NYT/Siena: Peters +1
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Author Topic: MI-NYT/Siena: Peters +1  (Read 4203 times)
Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #50 on: October 12, 2020, 12:32:38 PM »

A lot of undecided African American voters. I think they will break for James.


Why? I've written this elsewhere but his overperformance with them last time was much smaller than with other demographics and I've not seen a decent pitch for why he'd be significantly more appealing to black voters specifically this time around (relative to other MI voters, that is).

Why would they be undecided this late in the game? A lot less AAs are undecided in the Trump-Biden matchup.


Perhaps because people simply don't pay as much attention to downballot races.

I'd be willing to bet that if you asked Texans to name their two senators, you would get a large amount of "wait, is Ted Cruz a senator" and "I know Ted Cruz, but...I just can't think of that other guy's name."
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #51 on: October 12, 2020, 12:32:44 PM »
« Edited: October 12, 2020, 12:48:08 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

A lot of undecided African American voters. I think they will break for James.


Why? I've written this elsewhere but his overperformance with them last time was much smaller than with other demographics and I've not seen a decent pitch for why he'd be significantly more appealing to black voters specifically this time around (relative to other MI voters, that is).

Why would they be undecided this late in the game? A lot less AAs are undecided in the Trump-Biden matchup.


This is a fairly common phenomenon when it comes to downballot races. It has borne out in several previous cycles and is also noticeable in others (Cornyn v.s. Hegar w.r.t. Biden-leaning non-white voters, for instance). Particularly with respect to a voting bloc not especially renowned for its ticket-splitting, this should be considered to be partly a function of name recognition which mostly disappears on election day.
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SN2903
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« Reply #52 on: October 12, 2020, 12:33:23 PM »

I guess Michigan is full of PQG split-voters?

Huh.   Who knew?
Would you vote for James if you lived in MI?

 
Probably, yes -- I've never voted for a Democratic Senate candidate.  My ideal scenario is a Biden presidency with a GOP Senate.  
There's hope for you yet Smiley
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #53 on: October 12, 2020, 12:33:57 PM »

Lean D, closer to tilt than likely.. if the national environment gets somewhat better for Republicans (unlikely imo), Peters could be in serious trouble.
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Pollster
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« Reply #54 on: October 12, 2020, 12:34:45 PM »

Now that we’ve gotten through WI, MN, and now PA, which state is next on the panic list?

And the winner is!
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #55 on: October 12, 2020, 12:35:05 PM »

Lean D, closer to tilt than likely.. if the national environment gets somewhat better for Republicans (unlikely imo), Peters could be in serious trouble.

This is a good response

Luckily for Peters the National environment is there for him
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lfromnj
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« Reply #56 on: October 12, 2020, 12:36:36 PM »

My guess anyway is Biden +5 for the presidential race and Peters +2-3.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #57 on: October 12, 2020, 12:40:33 PM »

I guess Michigan is full of PQG split-voters?

Huh.   Who knew?
Would you vote for James if you lived in MI?

 
Probably, yes -- I've never voted for a Democratic Senate candidate.  My ideal scenario is a Biden presidency with a GOP Senate.  
There's hope for you yet Smiley

Little bit demeaning, SN, but....thank you?
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #58 on: October 12, 2020, 12:41:48 PM »

I guess Michigan is full of PQG split-voters?

Huh.   Who knew?
Would you vote for James if you lived in MI?

 
Probably, yes -- I've never voted for a Democratic Senate candidate.  My ideal scenario is a Biden presidency with a GOP Senate.  
There's hope for you yet Smiley

Little bit demeaning, SN, but....thank you?

I’m curious - do you plan to vote for Cornyn/other downballot Republicans?
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SN2903
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« Reply #59 on: October 12, 2020, 12:41:55 PM »

This is the SN bumper sticker bounce for James Smiley
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #60 on: October 12, 2020, 12:45:58 PM »

I guess Michigan is full of PQG split-voters?

Huh.   Who knew?
Would you vote for James if you lived in MI?

 
Probably, yes -- I've never voted for a Democratic Senate candidate.  My ideal scenario is a Biden presidency with a GOP Senate.  
There's hope for you yet Smiley

Little bit demeaning, SN, but....thank you?

I’m curious - do you plan to vote for Cornyn/other downballot Republicans?

Cornyn (R) for Senate, Kulkarni (D) for the House (TX-22), straight Republican downballot with the exception of one local position for which a close friend (Democrat) is running. 
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #61 on: October 12, 2020, 12:48:00 PM »

If you take a look at the polls for this race you'll see that the more the undecideds, the smaller Peters' margin of victory is. James' percentage is invariably stuck in the low forties.  
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lfromnj
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« Reply #62 on: October 12, 2020, 12:48:19 PM »
« Edited: October 12, 2020, 12:55:38 PM by #proudtikitorchmarcher »


couldn't find the first one by bagel.
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Woody
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« Reply #63 on: October 12, 2020, 12:52:54 PM »

GARY PETERS = BILL NELSON 2.0
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ExSky
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« Reply #64 on: October 12, 2020, 12:54:09 PM »

Blue Avis are going to be thoroughly disappointed when Straight Ticket voting carries Peters town 10-12 point win.
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Skye
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« Reply #65 on: October 12, 2020, 12:54:51 PM »

Three pages in less than an hour, peak Atlas.
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #66 on: October 12, 2020, 12:55:11 PM »

In a perfect world.. Lindsey Graham loses and John James flips Michigan.

Smile
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #67 on: October 12, 2020, 12:57:00 PM »

Stabenow has much more appeal than Peter's does especially to African American community, Pelosi holding up the stimulus in favor of AOC wing isn't helping AA whom most are more poorer than Caucasians whom have savings to fall back on. Especially to Senior citizens whom only get SSA. Hillary underperformed among AA in 2016

I don't see holding up a stimulus check accomplishes, the unemployment rate keeps dropping, by next yr, it will be back to 5 percent from 8
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #68 on: October 12, 2020, 01:10:33 PM »

Blue Avis are going to be thoroughly disappointed when Straight Ticket voting carries Peters town 10-12 point win.

If you’re expecting Peters to win by 10-12 points, I don’t think I’ll be the one who’s disappointed, but hey, who knows.
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WD
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« Reply #69 on: October 12, 2020, 01:15:10 PM »

Blue Avis are going to be thoroughly disappointed when Straight Ticket voting carries Peters town 10-12 point win.

If you’re expecting Peters to win by 10-12 points, I don’t think I’ll be the one who’s disappointed, but hey, who knows.

When you account for the Harley-Davidson vote it’s more likely a 30-35 point victory.

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ExSky
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« Reply #70 on: October 12, 2020, 01:18:04 PM »

Blue Avis are going to be thoroughly disappointed when Straight Ticket voting carries Peters town 10-12 point win.

If you’re expecting Peters to win by 10-12 points, I don’t think I’ll be the one who’s disappointed, but hey, who knows.

Just wait and see.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #71 on: October 12, 2020, 01:22:48 PM »

Peak Atlas for this to be nearly 4 pages long with 15% undecided
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Suburbia
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« Reply #72 on: October 12, 2020, 01:24:42 PM »

If John James wins, he has a better chance at being on the GOP ticket than Daniel Cameron. But he's gonna be branded as a sellout.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #73 on: October 12, 2020, 01:38:08 PM »

WAKE THE F#CK UP GARY

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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #74 on: October 12, 2020, 02:17:44 PM »

People keep forgetting that MI is the NV of the Midwest in terms of polling. But hey, panic on.

cough2016cough
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