MI-NYT/Siena: Peters +1

[compucomp]

Lol Peters isn’t losing if Biden wins here by more than a few points.

This poll has Biden +8...

[SN2903]

James is going to win! I just got a thumbs up from a lady. I have a James bumper sticker on my car.

[SevenEleven]

Classic thoughtless reaction ITT. Undecideds are way too high and will obviously break for Peters. You all realize you can put a poll in context with other polls, both for the Senate and Presidential race, right? When James is over performing Trump by 3-5 points and is ahead of Peters we can talk.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Likely D --> Likely D

[GeneralMacArthur]

Throw it in the average.

[MT Treasurer]

Sounds like Peters and Ernst need to hop back on their Harley’s pronto

The more retail politicin’ they do, the worse their numbers get. Reverse retail politics effect because of highly annoying motorcycle noise

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I guess Michigan is full of PQG split-voters?

Huh.   Who knew?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I'll move this one back to lean D, but the poll means less than it should for reasons other posters here have alluded to (I wish they would push leaners).

October 6-11
614 likely voters
MoE: 4.6%

Peters 43%
James 42%
Not voting for Senate 1%
Squier (G) 1%
Dern (Natural Law) 0%
Willis (Taxpayers) 0%
Someone else 0%
Don't know/Refused 13%

[Young Conservative]

Fly high with James!

Shooting up 11 points while the incumbent remains in the low forties is massive.

The GOP should triage McSally, dump money here and Iowa.

[Senator Incitatus]

Fly high with James!

Shooting up 11 points while the incumbent remains in the low forties is massive.

The GOP should triage McSally, dump money here and Iowa.

How have they not triaged her already? Nominating her in the first place was a form of triage.

[Xing]

Peters was never safe, and while I still think he wins, he's gotta take this seriously for the next few weeks. Also, this should not only put to rest the idea that Michigan is back to being a dark blue state, but also the idea that incumbents (Republican or Democratic) can't underperform the top of the ticket. Peters and Tillis could both very well do so, and it would be interesting to see how Democrats on this forum would react to Peters losing while Biden wins Michigan, as well as Republican reacting to Tillis losing while Trump wins North Carolina.

[SN2903]

Who are these Biden/James voters?

A lot of Oakland County Suburban whites who DO NOT like Trump will vote for Republican like James. He is non offensive. They also like minorities. James is going to win. 1-2% win.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Peters was never safe, and while I still think he wins, he's gotta take this seriously for the next few weeks. Also, this should not only put to rest the idea that Michigan is back to being a dark blue state, but also the idea that incumbents (Republican or Democratic) can't underperform the top of the ticket. Peters and Tillis could both very well do so, and it would be interesting to see how Democrats on this forum would react to Peters losing while Biden wins Michigan, as well as Republican reacting to Tillis losing while Trump wins North Carolina.

Would it though?  I imagine folks would mainly be pissed about their side losing a Senate seat and then get on with life  

[OSR stands with Israel]

Who are these Biden/James voters?

A lot of Oakland County Suburban whites who DO NOT like Trump will vote for Republican like James. He is non offensive. They also like minorities. James is going to win. 1-2% win.

Hopefully, you are right and John James Becomes the next Governor of Michigan

[SN2903]

I guess Michigan is full of PQG split-voters?

Huh.   Who knew?

Would you vote for James if you lived in MI?

[KaiserDave]

I am looking forward to more polls from this race, this poll is flawed but still. This race is competitive.

[Ljube]

A lot of undecided African American voters. I think they will break for James.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

A lot of undecided African American voters. I think they will break for James.

Why? I've written this elsewhere but his overperformance with them last time was much smaller than with other demographics and I've not seen a decent pitch for why he'd be significantly more appealing to black voters specifically this time around (relative to other MI voters, that is).

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I guess Michigan is full of PQG split-voters?

Huh.   Who knew?

Would you vote for James if you lived in MI?

Probably, yes -- I've never voted for a Democratic Senate candidate.  My ideal scenario is a Biden presidency with a GOP Senate.  

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

A lot of undecided African American voters. I think they will break for James.

If there's any demographic Republicans are sure they can rely on, it's black voters.

[Ljube]

A lot of undecided African American voters. I think they will break for James.

Why? I've written this elsewhere but his overperformance with them last time was much smaller than with other demographics and I've not seen a decent pitch for why he'd be significantly more appealing to black voters specifically this time around (relative to other MI voters, that is).

Why would they be undecided this late in the game? A lot less AAs are undecided in the Trump-Biden matchup.

[Alben Barkley]

A lot of undecided African American voters. I think they will break for James.

LOL

Most deluded thing you’ve posted yet which is really saying something.

[lfromnj]

A lot of undecided African American voters. I think they will break for James.

Why? I've written this elsewhere but his overperformance with them last time was much smaller than with other demographics and I've not seen a decent pitch for why he'd be significantly more appealing to black voters specifically this time around (relative to other MI voters, that is).

I do think this year he gets a slightly better percentage than 2018 as 2018's campaign was more just appealing to the GOP base, I heard 2020's campaign focused a bit on working with the black community and he held a decent number of events in detroit itself, it should still be very low and I expect the undecided African Americans to break hard for Peters but I think it will be higher than 2018 where it was around 2.5% in Detroit's blackest areas compared to 1.2 and 1.3 for Schuette and Trump. I think if we analyze those precincts this year I expect around 4%. Im not sure how suburban black people vote. You would expect a higher rate than Detroit itself but that may not be true. I checked in Maryland which is probably the only state where one can check income differences between AA's and there was no difference for even Hogan in Baltimore inner city areas against UMC suburbs in PG county.

[Xing]

Peters was never safe, and while I still think he wins, he's gotta take this seriously for the next few weeks. Also, this should not only put to rest the idea that Michigan is back to being a dark blue state, but also the idea that incumbents (Republican or Democratic) can't underperform the top of the ticket. Peters and Tillis could both very well do so, and it would be interesting to see how Democrats on this forum would react to Peters losing while Biden wins Michigan, as well as Republican reacting to Tillis losing while Trump wins North Carolina.

Would it though?  I imagine folks would mainly be pissed about their side losing a Senate seat and then get on with life  

Sure, they'd eventually get on with their lives, but the immediate reaction/analysis would be interesting.

[Alben Barkley]

A lot of undecided African American voters. I think they will break for James.

Why? I've written this elsewhere but his overperformance with them last time was much smaller than with other demographics and I've not seen a decent pitch for why he'd be significantly more appealing to black voters specifically this time around (relative to other MI voters, that is).

Why would they be undecided this late in the game? A lot less AAs are undecided in the Trump-Biden matchup.

Probably because they don’t really know who Peters is and aren’t as tuned into this race. Most will vote straight D in the end though. James did terribly with the black vote against Stabenow.